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Oscar Prediction Game

Year of Data and Society

General Information

As part of the Year of Data and Society initiative at Pitt, we are organizing a competition that involves using data analytics to predict this year's Oscar winners in a few specific categories. Build and apply new data skills in a fun and interactive way this semester!
For whom? All Pitt students - undergraduates and graduates - are welcome to participate! This is an opportunity to hone some data skills and get your feet wet with data analytics – you can be entirely new to working with data! In fact, you do not even have to use any data if you do not want, but use your subjective opinion to assess the probability of a nomination winning the corresponding category. In fact, in most everyday decisions we do, we have our own subjective opinion and new evidence/data are used to adjust these beliefs informally.
When does this competition run? The Oscar game kicks off on January 24 and runs through March 27 at 7pm, the day of the Oscars.
How do I participate? This competition will involve tuning in to asynchronous videos that will introduce you to data concepts and skills that you can use in making your Oscar predictions. In addition, you can join a Slack channel (More information on the way to submit your predictions will be coming soon)
What’s the time commitment? This is an asynchronous and flexible activity! Short videos will be posted regularly (roughly once every 10 days) that will help you build data skills that will help you make your Oscar predictions.
What skills will you develop by participating? While we cannot make you a data expert in a few videos, we hope by the end of this prediction game you will have a better appreciation of the uncertainty that it comes with the tasks of making predictions and decisions. You will also learn some very basic ways to analyze data (e.g., Bayes theorem) and hopefully this will increase your appetite for more!
What is the Year of Data and Society? Academic year 2021-2022 is the Year of Data and Society at Pitt. Through this initiative’s events, students, staff, and faculty are exploring the ways that we use data in our lives, in our work, and in our studies and examining how data impacts the communities around us. Through programs and funded projects, the Year of Data and Society is also bringing the study of data and socially responsible data methods into more classrooms and workshops.

Game Info

Prizes:

  • Bragging rights
  • Prizes of $100, $75 and $50 to the top-3 entries

Winners:

  • Grace Waldow (First prize)
  • Annalise Abraham (Second prize)
  • Matt Moore (Third prize)

Honorable Mention: Feno Monaco

Resources

Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule

Reading:And the Oscar goes to…Bayes' Theorem!

Descriptive Analysis

Data:(xls)

Excel functions:SUMIF() and COUNTIF()

Linear Regression

Data:(xls)

Logistic Regression

Data:(xls)

Readings:Probabilistic Interpretation of Logistic Regression (advanced)

Overfitting

Data:(xls)

Readings:Overfitting and Underfitting With Machine Learning Algorithms

Betting Markets

Data:(xls)

Every scene is a data point!