Older Voters in Florida Could Be Key to the 2020 Election

FORT MYERS, Fla.—President Trump won this county by about 20 percentage points in 2016, helping him narrowly win Florida and its 29 electoral votes. People like Harry Nesteruk could keep him from scoring such a lopsided victory here this year.

Mr. Nesteruk, a 77-year-old former defense industry executive, cast a ballot for the Republican candidate in every election since 1964. Come November, he said, that streak will end—with a vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee.

Mr. Nesteruk said he soured on the president for a host of reasons, from what he called Mr. Trump’s contempt for climate science to his response to the coronavirus pandemic, which especially threatens older people like Mr. Nesteruk.

“He just totally mismanaged it,” said Mr. Nesteruk, who lives with his wife in a retirement community here. “So buyer’s remorse? Yes.”

Any slippage in support for Mr. Trump in Lee County, home to Fort Myers and a magnet for retirees from across the U.S., could complicate his efforts to again capture the critical swing state of Florida. The county is a Republican stronghold, where more than one in three voters is aged 65 and older—compared with about a quarter of the national electorate—and many have roots in conservative parts of the Midwest. In 2016, Lee County delivered the president one of the largest GOP victory margins, in raw votes, among U.S. counties.

Interviews with more than two dozen older voters show that support among Mr. Trump’s base of Republican supporters remains strong—as does opposition to him among the Democratic minority—and the president is expected to win here again. But in a state where the race is close, his margin of victory in places like Lee County could matter. Some voters who were lukewarm about Mr. Trump when they voted for him in 2016 say they won’t choose him again this year.

Mr. Trump earned 46% support nationally among voters aged 65 and older in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, compared with 52% in 2016 exit polling. Some recent surveys in Florida also show the president underperforming relative to 2016 with older voters, one of the biggest constituencies in the state. In some polls, Mr. Biden is lagging the 2016 performance of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 with another major voting group, Latinos, so stronger support among older Floridians appears to be helping him keep the race close.

Two Trump campaign officials said they have concerns about Lee County but believe older voters will come around in the end. The campaign plans to highlight Mr. Trump’s stance on policies important to older voters, including reducing prescription-drug costs. But Mr. Biden’s campaign is encouraged by voters such as Mr. Nesteruk. “They know he's empathetic. They know he's relatable,” said Biden pollster John Anzalone.

Located on Florida’s southwestern coast and prized for its scenic beaches, manatee-filled waterways and trove of seashells on Sanibel Island, Lee County is one of the fastest-growing areas of the state. It draws retirees with its laid-back lifestyle and waterfront seafood shacks. The county teems with condo complexes, sprawling subdivisions and gated retirement communities.

Doris Cortese moved from Michigan to Cape Coral—the county’s largest city, with 194,000 people—with her husband in 2009, lured by the subtropical climate. She discovered the area was full of fellow conservatives and quickly became involved in local GOP politics.

“I felt like I died and went to heaven,” said Ms. Cortese, 81, one recent morning at the party office in Fort Myers, wearing a Trump 2020 T-shirt and sporting red-white-and-blue nail polish.

Enthusiasm for Mr. Trump is as strong as ever, she said, and the local party is mobilizing volunteers to register voters and knock on doors. As she spoke, people periodically popped in to request Trump yard signs.

That evening, she attended a meeting of the Lee County Trump Republican Club, which she leads, at a nearby pizzeria. Dozens of members gathered, maskless and not socially distanced, with TVs tuned to Fox News. A table set up by a featured speaker, Cathi Chamberlain, was arrayed with copies of her book, “Rules for Deplorables: A Primer for Fighting Radical Socialism.”

Mr. Trump “is the only one who can straighten out this country and get it back on track,” said Jeanette Morreal, 81. “I don’t see any indication that Biden has any experience that will bring the economy back the way Trump did prior to Covid.”

Around the county, Trump placards and flags adorn properties. A Trump boat parade off the coast earlier this month drew thousands of vessels. A local rock station recently switched its format to “Trump Country,” featuring country acts.

Nancy Kilpatrick, a 75-year-old Republican and retired teacher, said she worried about Democrats’ support for abortion rights, Black Lives Matter groups and calls by some liberals, though not Mr. Biden, to defund police.

This election “could alter the way we live,” she said. “Are we going to live in a socialist country or a free constitutional country?”

When U.S. Rep. Francis Rooney, a Republican who represents the area, said last year he thought impeachment proceedings against Mr. Trump needed to play out, many conservatives revolted. Shortly after, he said he wouldn’t seek re-election, a decision he said was unrelated to the controversy.

In an interview, Mr. Rooney said Mr. Trump’s base is most concentrated in Cape Coral, which is filled with middle-class retirees. “A lot of them are frustrated by the way the world has gone in recent years,” he said. “They don’t trust people like country club Republicans.”

Democrats are fired up as well, heartened to have a candidate like Mr. Biden whom some seniors find reassuring, said Gabriele Spuckes, chairman of the Lee County Democratic executive committee. Jill Biden, the nominee’s wife, recently hosted a virtual “community conversation” in Fort Myers, in which she lamented that the pandemic has kept grandparents from seeing their grandchildren.

The Biden campaign has run several ads in Florida aimed at older voters, with a focus on the virus and Social Security.

Mike McGalliard, a 73-year-old Republican and Air Force veteran, said he voted for the president in 2016 mainly because of his dislike of Mrs. Clinton and hoped Mr. Trump would grow into the job.

“It hasn’t happened,” said Mr. McGalliard, who backs Mr. Biden. “He’s a charlatan, a con man and a liar.”

John Smail, an 85-year-old Republican and retired human resources manager from Indiana, quickly regretted his vote for Mr. Trump. He compiled a list of grievances several pages long, from Mr. Trump’s friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to his seeking to gut the Affordable Care Act.

“On top of everything else, he’s a crummy human being,” said Mr. Smail, who supports Mr. Biden.

The pandemic has weighed on Lee County, where deaths from Covid-19 total 60 per 100,000, a bit below the statewide figure of 63 and the national figure of 61. It has reshaped the lives of many older people who are restricting their movements.

Bobbi Pitzner, a 76-year-old Fort Myers resident who switched her registration from Republican to Democratic this year and backs Mr. Biden, said she lost her job delivering catered meals to hospitals because of the virus. Now she stays home as much as possible and bathes her shoe soles in chlorine after any outing. She taught her dogs to pee and poop inside to avoid taking them out.

Ms. Pitzner recently organized an outdoor lunch gathering at a park pavilion for a social group she founded, Savvy Seniors—the organization’s first get-together since February. Conversation eventually turned to Mr. Trump’s handling of the pandemic and recently released audio recordings in which the president acknowledged he downplayed the virus’s severity at first.

“If he would have said something back in February, there would have been a lot of lives saved,” said Janice Odegaard, a 69-year-old independent.

“I don’t think so,” replied Christa Devine, a 77-year-old Republican. “If you scream fire, everybody is going to panic.”

Sheryl Bell is a rare find in Lee County: an undecided voter. The 72-year-old Republican and retired information-technology worker said she voted for Mr. Trump last time as an anti-establishment statement. While she said she is pleased with her finances and health-care coverage under Mr. Trump, she thinks Mr. Biden has a “strong moral compass.”

“I’m looking forward to hearing the debates,” Ms. Bell said. “I think that will help crystallize a lot in my mind.”