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WAIT AND SEE ON NORD STREAM 1: European customers served by Nord Stream 1 are in wait-and-see mode now that the natural gas pipeline is going offline for maintenance, with officials expressing worry that the scheduled temporary outage could end up becoming an indefinite or even a permanent one.
Russia’s Gazprom was scheduled to stop all flows through the Russia-to-Germany pipeline beginning today for the 10-day maintenance period. The outage sets Germany and others in Western Europe who rely on gas from the pipeline back even further in their efforts to avoid energy shortages and fill up stores for the winter season.
Volumes through the pipeline have already been coming in at dramatically reduced levels in recent weeks since Gazprom first reduced flows by some 60%, causing governments in Germany and elsewhere to pursue new emergency gas-saving measures.
German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck expressed a sense of unpredictability associated with the pipeline over the weekend.
It’s possible, he said, “that the gas will flow once more, even at a higher volume level than before.”
But he also said there is a need to prepare for the worst because it’s possible that “nothing comes through.”
What others are saying: Klaus Müller, who heads up German utility regulator Federal Network Agency, said a question remains “whether this regular maintenance turns into a longer-lasting political maintenance.”
For French finance minister Bruno Le Maire, a shut-off is now the “most likely” scenario.
Jonathan Stern, distinguished research fellow at Oxford University’s Institute for Energy Studies, said with the maintenance period comes “10 days of holding our breath.”
“If Nord Stream doesn’t restart on the 21st of July, then potentially as early as October, we’re short on gas,” Stern told Jeremy. “It really depends on temperatures.”
Gazprom has already shut off gas supplies to several EU countries, where energy companies declined to accede to Vladimir Putin’s decree requiring payment for gas in rubles or else see supplies cut.
Turbine politics: If the gas flows don’t ultimately resume, it looks like Gazprom will have one fewer technical explanation now that the Canadian government has approved the return of the compressor turbine it had been holding on account of sanctions. Details as to when the turbine might be returned have not been announced.
Gazprom blamed Western sanctions for the reduction in gas flows it began carrying out last month via Nord Stream 1, saying the sanctions were delaying the return of a compressor turbine from where it was under repair in Montreal. Siemens Energy, which had been working on the turbine, pointed to sanctions, too, for the delay.
At the time, Habeck dismissed the explanation outright, but he has since called on Canada to release the turbine in order to “take this turbine excuse away from Putin.”
The Ukrainian government, which has been critical of the Germans and Europe more broadly for not more aggressively moving away from Russian energy, said it was “deeply disappointed” in the decision to return the turbine.
Stern said the West is having to decide between pragmatism and the “moral position” of cutting off revenue from Russia at any cost.
“What European politicians and the [European] Commission are clearly concerned about is that if Europeans run short of gas through the winter, there’s going to be huge alarm, and possibly they’re not going to blame Putin — they’re going to blame European politicians,” he said.
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ERCOT ASKS HOUSEHOLDS TO REDUCE CONSUMPTION: The Electric Reliability Council of Texas asked households Monday to turn down the air conditioning and avoid running appliances between 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. to avoid blackouts.
The grid is under pressure because of extreme heat across the state, as well as a lack of wind – wind power was running at less than 10% of capacity, ERCOT said.
“ERCOT continues to use all tools available to manage the grid effectively and reliably, including using reserve power and calling upon large electric customers who have volunteered to lower their energy use,” it said.
INTERIOR PUBLISHES NEW DRAFT EIS FOR ALASKA’S WILLOW PROJECT: The Bureau of Land Management carried out another late-Friday news dump, this one being the awaited draft supplemental environmental impact statement for ConocoPhillips’ Willow Project in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
The Trump administration had already issued a final EIS and record of decision in October 2020 approving the project, but the federal district court in Alaska remanded that ROD to the agency in August 2021 after environmental groups sued.
Unlike the EIS finalized by the Trump administration, the new draft supplemental EIS includes analysis and estimates of foreign greenhouse gas emissions that would be tied to the project, the exclusion of which was part of the basis of the district court’s remand.
As proposed, the Willow Project would achieve an estimated peak production of 180,000 barrels of oil per day on up to five drill sites. ConocoPhillips’ development plan also contemplates the construction of nearly 40 miles of gravel roads, nearly 700 total miles of ice roads, and up to 390 miles of pipelines.
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska welcomed the draft SEIS but said the “devil is in the details,” emphasizing that the document isn’t a final determination. Sullivan also said he personally pitched the Biden administration on the project and that Biden’s team “gave me their commitment to fully support the Willow Project.”
What the administration has already done: The Biden administration has already taken nearly half of the NPR-A off the table for oil and gas leasing. BLM finalized an integrated activity plan in April making 11.8 million acres of the nearly 23 million designated under the NPR-A available for leasing — the same share as was approved during the Obama years.
By comparison, the plan finalized in 2020 made 18.6 million acres of the NPR-A available.
Greens react: Shrinking the NPR-A’s eligible acreage is one among several actions the Biden administration has taken to limit new oil and gas development on federal lands, but it still hasn’t won the approval of environmental constituencies. The Willow Project is another test for Biden’s Interior Department, which, just a week before, frustrated green groups by providing up to 11 offshore lease sales in its proposed program.
Lena Moffitt, chief of staff for Evergreen Action, called the draft SEIS flawed and said BLM should completely start over its review of the project, issuing a warning to the administration: “Giving the Willow Project a stamp of approval after this rushed and incomplete review process could be the kiss of death for any chance at meeting President Biden’s climate commitments.”
YOSEMITE WILDFIRE DOUBLES IN SIZE: A massive wildfire in the southern portion of Yosemite National Park more than doubled in size over the weekend, park officials said, threatening over 500 giant sequoias in the famed Mariposa Grove as firefighters scrambled to keep the trees safe and contain the blaze.
“The fire is burning in difficult terrain with continuous heavy dead and down fuels in and around the fire,” Yosemite fire information spokeswoman Nancy Phillipe said yesterday in a statement. “This also presents significant safety hazards to firefighters.”
As of yesterday morning, the fire was zero percent contained, though Phillipe said that none of the grove’s sequoias appear to be injured or suffered structural losses or critical damage.
DUTCH FARMING PROTESTS SPREAD ACROSS EUROPE: Thousands of Dutch farmers are protesting the country’s newly proposed emissions reduction rules, which seek to slash nitrogen oxide and ammonia emissions by the year 2030—largely by taking aim at the farming and agriculture sector.
The new climate-change policies were introduced last month by the Dutch parliament, and would force farmers to reduce their fertilizer use and regulate the amount of livestock they can own. The Dutch plans would require farmers to whittle their livestock by at least 30%, an amount lawmakers say is necessary to meet the country’s climate goals. In some areas, the cuts could reach as high as 70%.
But farmers in the country have railed against the proposed regulations, which they say would force them to either massively scale back their production or even shut down operations completely.
Last week, some 40,000 farmers massed in tractors and trucks in Gaarkeuken, a key Dutch agricultural hub, to block all ship traffic, while others stopped production at supermarket distribution centers and gathered outside the Dutch parliament building in protest.
The Netherlands is facing heightened pressure to comply with the EU’s Nitrate Directive, a law that seeks to protect against pollution from nitrates, especially in so-called “red zones,” or a protected network of habitats for endangered species.
The Netherlands is the EU’s largest emitter of nitrogen oxide and ammonia, and has been ordered by European courts to address the problem.
Bigger picture: The disruption unfolding in the Netherlands is believed to be just the tip of the iceberg, as governments in the EU and elsewhere continue to tighten emissions reductions, largely in the agriculture sector. Farmers say compliance with such rules will threaten their livelihood and risk exacerbating a global food crisis.
This month in Germany, farmers blocked roads along the Dutch-German border as a show of solidarity with their neighbors. And farmers in Italy and Spain have also followed suit in recent weeks, holding a string of “tractor protests” in various cities to protest the regulations, which they fear could hit their countries as well.
Henk Staghouwer, the Dutch minister of agriculture, nature and food quality, said recently of the government’s new plan: “There is not a future for all farmers within this approach.”
The Rundown
Washington Post How a D.C. lobbyist tried to stop Putin’s pipeline before war started
Daily Express Fears Boris Johnson quitting could spell end for net zero as green Tories fear worse PM
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JULY 13
2:30 p.m. 366 Dirksen The Senate Energy and Natural Resources’ Energy Subcommittee will hold a hearing on pathways to lower energy prices.
THURSDAY | JULY 14
10:00 a.m. 1300 Longworth The House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on “A 2022 Review of the Farm Bill: The State of Credit for Young, Beginning, and Underserved Producers.”
