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Global Newsletter & Insights Series
Wolfango Piccoli is Co-President, Political Risk Advisory with Teneo. He is responsible for co-managing Teneo’s global political risk platform and for the specific coverage of Europe. As director of research, he ensures the relevance, timeliness, rigor, and accuracy of the firm’s political risk advisory and consulting service.
Wolf has a long experience in advising financial institutions and corporations on political developments in Europe. Specifically, he focuses on the interplay between business and government, and the impact of legislative, regulatory, and electoral outcomes on clients’ business and investment strategies.
Prior to joining Teneo, Wolf was the director of the London office and led the Europe practice at Eurasia Group. He often appears on major TV networks and is frequently quoted in the world’s leading newspapers.
Wolf holds a Ph.D. in International Politics from the University of Wales, Aberystwyth, and an M.A. in International Relations from the University of Bilkent (Ankara).
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at US-Taiwan trade talks. Meanwhile, Japan’s main opposition party won all three seats in by-elections, Turkey’s ruling coalition is set to launch a new effort for constitutional…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at joint US-Philippines security exercises. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy committee will meet, new US military support will be crucial for Ukraine, Valenzuela’s opposition has…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at power outages in Nigeria. Meanwhile, by-elections will be held in Japan, Turkey’s central bank is posting losses, a deadline is looming for presidential candidacy registrations in…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the storming of the Mexican embassy in Quito. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary’s visit to China ends Tuesday, the results of Poland’s local elections are mixed,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at India’s looming elections. Meanwhile, China’s economy might be modestly improving, a key electoral test is ahead in Poland, Peru’s cabinet faces a congressional investiture vote, and…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at local elections in Turkey. Meanwhile, Thailand’s former prime minister is rebuilding key relationships, Russian security services are continuing their investigation into the weekend’s terror attack, the…
Despite their local character, the 31 March elections will have indirect political ramifications for both the ruling coalition and the opposition. The outcome of the vote is likely to disappoint President Tayyip Erdogan as his plans to regain control of Istanbul and other large cities is expected to fail. Absent…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at polling ahead of the South African elections. Meanwhile, Fiji will restart a policing cooperation deal with China, Russia’s president secured a fifth term in office, the…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at wage negotiations in Japan. Meanwhile, economic charter change might be ahead in the Philippines, presidential elections will be held in Russia, Venezuela’s opposition is debating its…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at new semiconductor projects in India. Meanwhile, China’s cabinet has announced a subsidies plan, conversations of senior German military officers have been leaked, Argentina’s president has offered…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at South Africa’s looming elections. Meanwhile, debates about constitutional change have begun in the Philippines, Hungary will ratify Sweden’s NATO accession, election campaigning will begin in Mexico…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at new EU sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Thailand’s former prime minister was released from jail, the European Commission president is seeking a second term, Brazil’s president has…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Indonesia’s presidential election. Meanwhile, Taiwan's defense ministry detected eight mainland Chinese balloons, Spanish regional elections will have a limited impact on national politics, Venezuela’s president has…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at monetary policy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, election campaigning will end in Indonesia, the leaders of Russia and Turkey will meet, Argentina’s lower house will begin debating the…
If at the 1-2 February European Council, Hungary maintains its veto, the remaining 26 EU members will act alone to support Ukraine with a four-year EUR 50bn macro-financial support package. The biggest signpost for future support to Ukraine is the US election, but given the knock-on effects of the geopolitical…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Turkey’s looming local elections. Meanwhile, a US-China working group on counternarcotics will meet, EU leaders will try to agree on financial support for Ukraine, US sanctions…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Indonesia’s upcoming elections. Meanwhile, the political funding scandal continues in Japan, large-scale protests against the far-right took place in Germany, a plenary vote on the presidential…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at South Africa’s court case against Israel. Meanwhile, the slush-fund scandal continues in Japan, new protests are ahead in Serbia, Ecuador will raise the VAT rate amid…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at a deepening corruption scandal in Japan. Meanwhile, Taiwan's defense ministry has criticized the mainland China government, Poland’s right-wing opposition is organizing protests against…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’spolitical risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at tax reform in Brazil. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy committee will meet, Serbia’s ruling party put in a solid performance in the…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at talks between Venezuela and Guyana. Meanwhile, turnout in the Hong Kong district elections was low, the increase in Turkey’s minimum wage is expected…
Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at an evolving political funding scandal in Japan. Meanwhile, Chinese health officials have commented on a surge in respiratory illness, the budget crisis continues…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Indonesia’s looming election campaign. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s president is visiting Japan, Italy’s modified recovery plan received the green light from Brussels, Argentina’s president-elect is…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at South Africa severing diplomatic ties with Israel. Meanwhile, a deal between Taiwan’s two main opposition parties is in danger, voters are going to…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Argentina’s presidential elections. Meanwhile, the presidents of China and the U.S. will meet, a former PM returns as British foreign secretary, Brazil is…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at G7 debates over the situation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, US and Chinese diplomats held meetings, the European Commission will issue its assessment…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at South Africa’s fiscal outlook. Meanwhile, US-China relations show signs of improvement, early elections are ahead in Serbia, high-level horse trading will continue in…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the Polish election result. Meanwhile, China will host its third Belt and Road Forum, Italy’s government has approved its 2024 budget, and the…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the political outlook in Slovakia. Meanwhile, Indonesia unveils an important rail project funded through the Belt and Road Initiative. In Greece, New Democracy (ND) is expected…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the EU’s investigation into Chinese EV subsidies. Meanwhile, monetary policy change looks unlikely in Japan, the leaders of Turkey and Greece will…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Ukrainian grain exports to Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Japan’s prime minister is set to reshuffle his cabinet, elections in Russia returned…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Thailand’s next prime minister. Meanwhile, mainland China issued a modest response to a trip to Washington by Taiwan's vice president, consultations will…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at a looming court ruling in Thailand. Meanwhile, mainland China's military is conducting exercises in the South China Sea, Saudi Arabia might host a meeting on Ukraine,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at the Spanish election result. Meanwhile, Thailand’s parliament will again vote for a prime minister, the NATO-Ukraine council will meet, Peru’s president will…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Colombia’s new congressional session. Meanwhile, the US special envoy on climate change has arrived in China, Russia does not intend to renew…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Thailand’s electoral outlook. Meanwhile, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida embarks on an extensive international trip. Politics faces a reset in the Netherlands.
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at cabinet formation in Greece. Meanwhile, four more state assemblies are expected to be dissolved in Malaysia, last weekend’s series of events in…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Argentina’s primaries. Meanwhile, the US secretary of state has concluded his China visit, tensions remain high between Serbia and Kosovo, the president’s…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Chile’s constitutional re-write process. Meanwhile, two senior US officials have arrived in China, France’s parliament will hold a vote on the retirement age, the focus in…
President Tayyip Erdogan is widely expected to secure a new five-year mandate to extend his rule over Turkey into a third decade. With around 95% of the ballot boxes counted, Erdogan is (according to Anadolu Agency) leading with 52.3% of the votes while Kemal Kilicdaroglu is at 47.7%. Below we…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at drone attacks in Russia. Meanwhile, the Philippines will create a sovereign wealth fund, Turkey’s president will announce a new cabinet, regional gubernatorial…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at local and regional elections in Spain. Meanwhile, Japan’s successful G7 summit is sparking fresh snap election talk, a mass rally will be…
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks set to face his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a runoff vote after neither passed the threshold needed for an outright win in yesterday’s elections. With 99.4% of the ballot boxes scrutinized, Erdogan can count on 49.42% of the votes while Kilicdaroglu is at 44.95%.
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Thailand. Meanwhile, Japan hosts G7 leaders, Turkey’s president and his opponent are heading to a runoff election, legislators in Ecuador have been summoned for the presidential…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Brazil’s central bank leadership. Meanwhile, Thailand is going to elections, Russia is celebrating Victory Day, and gubernatorial polls will be held in…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Serbia-Kosovo talks. Meanwhile, the leaders of Japan and South Korea will meet, Turkey’s election campaign is getting increasingly tense, and a fake…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at German China policy. Meanwhile, Chinese house prices are rising, local elections will be held in the north of Kosovo, Argentine officials hope…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at French pension reform. Meanwhile, Japan’s ruling party will be strengthened by local election results, Poland’s prime minister is traveling to the US,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Brazil-China relations. Meanwhile, approval ratings have improved for Japan’s prime minister, the opposition’s vote in Turkey may split, electoral reform has been suspended in Mexico,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at French pension reform. Meanwhile, the presidents of China and Russia will meet, Kosovo and Serbia have struck an implementation deal, the next…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Chinese fiscal and monetary policymakers. Meanwhile, the leaders of Japan and South Korea will…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Greece and the political implications of a recent train crash. Meanwhile, China's growth projection looks on the low side of expectations, while…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Mexico. Meanwhile, the fortunes of Japan’s prime minister are ticking up again, elections will be held in Estonia, fuel tax rates are creating debate in Brazil,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Russia. Meanwhile, Thailand is preparing for elections, the anniversary of the Ukraine invasion looms, and South…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Italy. Meanwhile, a new central bank governor will be nominated in Japan, noise continues about a potential postponement of…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at judicial reform in Poland. Meanwhile, the Philippines will grant the U.S. four more military bases, EU…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Peru. Meanwhile, Thailand may soon be headed towards elections, the EU’s import ban on Russian petroleum products will…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at the controversy around German tank deliveries. Meanwhile, Chinese tourists are returning to destinations across Asia, presidential runoff elections will be held in the Czech Republic, Brazil’s…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Ghana’s debt exchange efforts. Meanwhile, senior US and Chinese decision-makers will meet, Germany will get a new defense secretary, protestors are calling on Peru’s president to…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Brazil. Meanwhile, China is easing travel restrictions, Germany is providing tanks to Ukraine, protests continue in…
The presidents of Russia and Belarus are meeting. South Africa’s president has won re-election at his party’s conference. Peru’s Congress will debate bringing forward elections to 2023. Japan’s government is set to approve its 2023 general budget. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s PM won a confidence vote, EU energy ministers are negotiating a…
A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…
Covid-19 is sweeping through China. South Africa’s parliament will debate the Phala Phala report. Peru’s newly installed president is aiming at bringing forward elections. Corruption allegations have rocked the European Parliament. Meanwhile, Japan may decide how to pay for greater defense spending, a no-confidence vote will be held in Slovakia,…
Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table summarizes the impact of elections in EMs in 2023. Markets are ordered in accordance with the electoral calendar. Risk ratings are relative to each country, and not comparative across all countries listed. The table is intended as a summary, not to replace our deeper…
Chinese cities are moving to ease Covid restrictions. The EU ban on seaborn Russian crude comes into force. The political fate of South Africa’s president will take center stage. Meanwhile, regional state election results are expected in India, a no-confidence vote will be debated in Slovakia, a potential constitutional amendment…
Public protests have spread to multiple Chinese cities. Speculation about debt restructuring continues in Ghana. The European Commission will make a proposal on whether to withhold payments to Hungary. Malaysia’s prime minister will present his cabinet. Meanwhile, Japan’s prime minister continues to face headwinds, NATO foreign ministers will gather in…
The US defense secretary is likely to meet his Chinese counterpart. Brazil’s president-elect is returning from COP. Two EU meetings will be watched. Meanwhile, Malaysian politics will remain highly uncertain, the incumbent has won the presidential elections in Kazakhstan, pressure is growing for a new constitutional re-write process in Chile,…
U.S. President Joe Biden held a three-hour discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping. A busy week of global diplomacy has begun in the Asia Pacific region. Russia’s grain deal with Ukraine is set to expire. Protest marches continue in Mexico. Elections will be held in Malaysia. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s president…
Midterm elections will be held in the US. Chinese health authorities have declined to announce re-opening policies. The presidential transition team in Brazil is trying to reconcile social spending with fiscal discipline. ASEAN leaders will gather in Phnom Penh. Long-standing tensions are escalating between Serbia and Kosovo. Meanwhile, the march…
Lula has won the presidency in Brazil. Russia has suspended the Black Sea grain deal. The Bank of England will be at the center of attention this week. Meanwhile, China is granting women greater protection, Kosovo is going ahead with its controversial license plate change, left-leaning governments across Latin America…
China’s president has secured another term in office. Polls in Brazil have both presidential candidates at a technical tie. The Bank of Japan will likely stick to its ultra-accommodative policy. The European Central Bank is likely to revise TLTRO conditions. South Africa’s finance minister will present his medium-term budget statement.
China’s president has opened the Communist Party congress. The new chancellor has reversed the UK government’s mini budget. Poll numbers are not expected to move significantly in Brazil. Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure continue. Meanwhile, consumer price data will be published in Japan, government formation talks will begin in Italy,…
The new UK government has abandoned some of its tax cut plans. Brazil is heading for a presidential runoff election. Indonesia is the first country to approve a Chinese-developed mRNA vaccine. West African states face a political conundrum following the coup d’état in Burkina Faso. Meanwhile, there is speculation that…
This week, the first round of Brazil’s presidential election takes place, with a first-round victory for former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva not impossible. Giorgia Meloni of the right-wing Brothers of Italy party is set to become Italy's first female PM. Meanwhile, sham referendums on…
Giorgia Meloni is poised to become Italy's first female prime minister after leading a right-wing alliance to a solid victory in the 25 September parliamentary election. With the vote count still in progress, the rightist bloc is set to claim just over 44% of the vote, securing a comfortable majority…
Self-proclaimed republics in Eastern Ukraine will hold fake referenda. The US president appears to be signaling a shift away from “strategic ambiguity” vis-à-vis China. Voters are going to the polls in Italy. Cabinet announcements in Kenya may be delayed further. Meanwhile, the leaders of South Korea and Japan are considering…
Ukraine’s successful counterattack has increased expectations of further Western support. The leaders of Russia and China might meet this week. Windfall taxes and utility bailouts are the least contested EU proposals to counter the energy crisis. Kenya’s new president will be sworn in. Meanwhile, duties on India’s rice exports will…
EU energy ministers will likely move further towards an electricity price cap. Elections will be held on various sub-national levels in Russia. New lockdowns will deal a fresh blow to Chinese household consumption. Kenya’s supreme court has rejected the appeal against the presidential election results. Nigeria will not go ahead…
Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive in the south of the country. The EU is moving towards electricity market intervention. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s president will present an amended budget, the Czech government is set to survive a no-confidence vote, and voters in Chile are widely expected to back the new draft…
This week, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Asia has irked Beijing. Colombia’s first ever leftist president will be inaugurated. Zambia’s debt outlook may be improving. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdoğan will meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Also this week, parliamentary election results in Senegal could spark protests. Chart of…
Despite Russian missile strikes, Ukraine is preparing for grain exports from its three Black Sea ports. China is warning of the US House Speaker’s potential trip to Taiwan. Ghana’s finance minister will try to assuage public concern about an IMF program. South Africa’s ruling party will hold its national policy…
With his government's fate in limbo, Prime Minister Mario Draghi is under growing pressure to stay in office instead of resigning as he tried to do last week after lawmakers from the Five Star Movement (M5S) walked out of the Senate ahead a critical vote on the so-called “Decreto…
EU foreign ministers are discussing new sanctions against Russia. Chinese regulators are calling on banks to support housing developers. Italy's prime minister might confirm his resignation. Sri Lanka’s parliament will elect a new president. The IMF’s next disbursement to Kenya is scheduled to take place today. Meanwhile, Thailand’s parliament will…
Russia has halted gas shipments to Germany. Japan’s ruling party strengthened its majority in the wake of Shinzo Abe’s death. The US foreign minister met his Chinese counterpart. Sri Lanka’s president is expected to resign. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Australia and China have met, Conservatives in the UK will…
Japan will hold Upper House elections. Germany is preparing for Russia halting gas deliveries. Meanwhile, smaller Covid outbreaks have occurred in China, Russia is mobilizing the economy for sustained war, Chile’s new constitution has been formally delivered to the president, and IMF representatives are expected to arrive in Ghana. …
Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table summarizes the impact of elections in EMs over the next 18 months. Markets are ordered in accordance with the electoral calendar. Risk ratings are relative to each country, and not comparative across all countries listed. The table is intended as a summary, not to…
Russia has defaulted on its sovereign debt. Western leaders are discussing additional sanctions. Meanwhile, China’s president will make his first trip outside the mainland since the pandemic, Turkey’s president remains a key veto player ahead of the NATO summit, Ecuador’s national assembly will continue discussion whether to impeach the president,…
Tensions are rising between Russia and the West in the Baltic region. Ukraine will be granted EU candidate status. Markets will react to Colombia’s presidential election result. Germany is racing to increase gas reserves amid a Russian supply squeeze. Ethiopia peace talks are in the offing. Meanwhile, electoral campaigning begins…
Discussions continue about Ukraine’s path towards EU candidate status. A new Covid outbreak in Beijing is being closely monitored by Chinese authorities. France’s president might not win a comfortable majority for his alliance of parties in the legislative elections. Calls for the resignation of South Africa’s president are premature. Meanwhile,…
Monetary policy in the Eurozone is in the spotlight this week. The US has once again altered language regarding Taiwan. Turkey is expected to launch a military incursion into northern Syria. Nigeria’s ruling party will hold presidential primaries. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is changing its constitution, the British Conservatives will hold a…
The EU has agreed on a gradual oil embargo against Russia. In China, Shanghai will lift most Covid-19 restrictions. Fuel prices are due to increase in South Africa. Meanwhile, local elections will be held in South Korea, Turkey’s government is tightening its grip on the media, gubernatorial elections will take…
Payments on Russian sovereign bonds will be in the spotlight this week. Voters will go to the polls in the Colombian presidential elections. Labor has won the Australian general election. A Quad summit will be held in Japan. Meanwhile, the UN human rights commissioner is visiting China, the EU is…
President Tayyip Erdogan’s current insistence on blocking Swedish and Finnish membership of NATO is likely to delay, rather than prevent, the two countries from eventually joining the alliance. As is often the case, Erdogan’s abrupt move has more to do with domestic politics than foreign policy. Creating artificial crises in…
Turkey’s president has positioned himself against NATO enlargement. China is boosting its ailing housing market. The UK is preparing for another standoff with the EU over Northern Ireland. Voters in Thailand’s capital will go to the polls. Meanwhile, Japan is preparing for the Quad summit, Hungary’s parliament will formally re-elect…
Russia’s president did not make any major announcements during his Victory Day speech. South Korea will have a new president. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has likely won the Philippines presidency. Sri Lanka’s prime minster has offered to resign. Meanwhile, John Lee has been endorsed to become Hong Kong’s new chief executive,…
The EU will decide on phasing out oil imports from Russia. Russia has enacted new counter sanctions. General elections will be held in the Philippines. Meanwhile, Australia is halfway through its election campaign, voters will go to the polls in UK local and regional elections, Mexico’s president will embark on…
The prospects for de-escalation are slim in Ukraine. Japan will unveil another stimulus package. In France, all eyes are on the legislative elections. Citizens in China’s capital are anticipating a Shanghai-style lockdown. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. remains the favorite in the Philippines presidential election. Meanwhile, South Korea’s incoming president is trying…
Russia’s war on Ukraine is entering a new phase. Voters in France will go to the polls in the second round of the presidential election. Manufacturers in the Chinese city of Shanghai are beginning to reopen after the lockdown. Meanwhile, the British PM will visit India, parliamentary elections will be…
Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine will intensify. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron will face far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election. Shanghai’s lockdown continues under China’s “dynamic zero” Covid-19 policy. A new prime minister will be sworn in in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Australia’s federal election has…
The EU will impose new sanctions on Russia. The Chinese army has deployed medical personnel to Shanghai. Presidential elections will be held in France. Kenya’s constitutional court has ruled the BBI reform project unconstitutional. Meanwhile, in Japan the new structure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange went into effect, Germany will…
Russian and Ukrainian delegations will resume their talks. Hungarians are going to the polls. Ethiopia has declared a humanitarian truce for the Tigray region. Meanwhile, a two-stage lockdown has been announced in the Chinese city of Shanghai, incumbents are expected to fare well in the Serbian elections, executive-legislative tensions have…
Russian attacks in Ukraine can be expected to intensify. NATO and EU leaders will convene in Brussels this week. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ president has signed the most significant liberalization of investment rules in decades, voters will go the polls in a regional state election in Germany, Brazil’s former president Lula…
Negotiations continue between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian government is preparing an economic support package. China is suffering its worst Covid-19 outbreak since Wuhan. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, Turkey’s government is pursuing electoral reform, Brazil’s government is focusing on rising fuel prices, and…
Russian forces are preparing for more intense offensive operations in Ukraine. China is setting itself a slightly lower-than-expected growth target. South Koreans are heading to the polls. Meanwhile, a special congress session on rising fuel prices may be held in the Philippines, Hungary’s parliament is electing a new president, and…
Russia/Ukraine talks are unlikely to produce substantive outcomes. China tries to straddle between Moscow and the West. Meanwhile, Japan will begin easing border restrictions, Turkey’s stance on the passage of Russian warships to the Black Sea remains ambiguous, opposition parties are working on impeachment proceedings against Peru’s president, and intra-party…
A key signpost to watch is Russia’s interpretation of the borders of the self-proclaimed Donbas republics. South Africa’s finance minister will present his first annual budget. Thailand will change its electoral system. Meanwhile, India will resume regular international flights, the UK and the EU have made no tangible progress on…
Russia’s actions along Ukraine’s border will be closely watched. Mainland China’s government is assisting amid a Covid outbreak in Hong Kong. A key court ruling could increase the risk of EU financial penalties against Poland and Hungary. Meanwhile, two regional states in India will go the polls, there is new…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you would like to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.
Russia will engage in military maneuverings and diplomacy this week. Germany’s chancellor is visiting the US. Campaigning starts for the Philippines’ presidential election. Meanwhile, Japan’s government will decide about restrictions in Tokyo, the Spanish center-right might have to cooperate with a far-right party, a leftist candidate remains the favorite to…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has more than doubled…
Russia is yet to react to the West’s written proposals. The UK prime minister has received the report on lockdown parties at 10 Downing Street. There is growing confidence in Southeast Asia that the reduced severity of Omicron allows for reopening. Meanwhile, India’s federal budget will be presented in parliament,…
Relations between Russia and the West remain tense. Chinese aircraft have entered Taiwan’s air defense zone. The voting process has begun in the Italian presidential election. Military forces have allegedly detained Burkina Faso’s president. Meanwhile, India will celebrate its republic day, Germany is giving up on contact tracing, the text…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom As the omicron wave appears to have passed, the seven-day…
Nearly half of China’s provinces have now reported omicron cases. Ukraine’s former president faces charges of high treason. Chile’s president-elect will unveil his new cabinet. Meanwhile, Japan’s PM will meet online with the US president, voting will start for Italy’s next president, public servants will protest in Brazil, and Nigeria’s…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you would like to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.
Talks between Russia and the West will start this week. China is reacting to its first omicron outbreak. Silvio Berlusconi is likely to remain a candidate in Italy’s presidential elections. Meanwhile, India’s election commission will review its campaign ban, a referendum will be held in Serbia, the opposition seems to…
New restrictions are being discussed in Germany. Left winger Gabriel Boric has won the presidential election in Chile. A cabinet resignation further increases the pressure on the UK prime minister. Meanwhile, new quarantine rules may be introduced in Thailand, Germany’s government has chosen a new central bank president, and Brazil’scongress…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom With more than 78,000 cases, the UK recorded its highest-ever…
EU foreign ministers will consider new sanctions on Russia. Monetary policy will be watched in Europe. G7 foreign ministers have discussed China. Turkey’s president will focus on the situation in the markets. Voters will go to the polls for the Chilean presidential runoff election. Meanwhile, India’s president is travelling to…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Click on 'View…
The presidents of Russia and the US will meet virtually. Olaf Scholz will be formally elected as Germany’s next chancellor. Peru’s president is trying to ward off impeachment. Meanwhile, Australia’s opposition is focusing on climate change, the “super green pass” scheme has started in Italy, Brazil’s Congress will discuss judicial…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections keeps oscillating around the mark of…
China has told Didi Global that it must de-list from New York’s stock exchange. Parties in Germany will take the next steps towards a new government. Meanwhile, Japan is reimposing strict border controls, the EU’s top court is working towards a verdict on the rule of law in Poland and…
Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai told the IOC president that she is safe and well. Germany’s next government coalition might present its policy program this week. The deadline for local councils to be constituted is looming in South Africa. Meanwhile, Australia wants to secure its supply chains, Bulgaria’s president has…
The EU will impose new sanctions on Belarus. China and the US are preparing for the virtual encounter of their presidents. Meanwhile, the presidential race in the Philippines is now set, Turkey’s currency remains under pressure, presidential elections will begin in Chile, and Ghana’s finance minister will present the budget…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has fallen back below the mark…
Mid-term elections will be held in Argentina. The medium-term budget statement is due in South Africa. Meanwhile, political noise will increase in the Philippines, Bulgaria is going to elections, “Super Tuesday” is looming in Brazil, and Ethiopia’s civil war is approaching a turning point. Chart of the Week…
The COP climate conference has begun in the UK. Japan’s PM oversaw a strong election result for his party. China is warning of its new Covid outbreak. Meanwhile, Australia’s PM is facing unwanted narratives regarding AUKUS, the political crisis in Romania continues, Brazil’s president is not attending the climate conference,…
Voters in Japan will go to the polls. Turkey is heading for a major confrontation with its allies. A Senate report requests the indictment of Brazil’s president. The UK chancellor will present his autumn budget. South Africa is gearing up for municipal elections. The most significant reopening by a Southeast…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections is now on a clear upwards…
China has tested a new missile. Turkey’s currency is set for more volatility. Chile is on high alert. Meanwhile, a civilian-military standoff continues in Pakistan, formal coalition talks will begin in Germany, a constitutional amendment will be put to a vote in Brazil, and a commodity trader has opened talks…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Click…
The U.S. and China held virtual trade-related talks. Tensions are rising in the relationship between the UK and the EU. Japan’s new PM will dissolve the Diet. Argentina’s finance minister will attend the annual IMF meetings. Meanwhile, candidate registration ended in the Philippines, Austria has a new chancellor, another presidential…
The main takeaway from the 3-4 October local elections is that the outcome will not cause any major problem to Prime Minister Mario Draghi's government. The former ECB chairman, who enjoys approval ratings close to 70%, remains unchallenged. Draghi's main source of strength, in addition to his personal standing and…
The U.S. trade representative will outline Washington's approach to China trade. Fumio Kishida is Japan’s 100th prime minister. Exploratory coalition talks could officially begin in Germany. Meanwhile, candidate registration will end in the Philippines, lower house elections will be held in the Czech Republic, Mexico’s congress will discuss electricity sector…
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s party won the State Duma elections. Voters will go to the polls in Germany. Turkey’s central bank could start easing monetary policy. Meanwhile, China is defending its recent crackdown on tech companies, a leadership contest will be held in Romania’s ruling party, Argentina’s president will swear…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Click…
Antitrust efforts are escalating in China. An Olaf Scholz chancellorship is becoming more and more likely in Germany. Argentina’s ruling party suffered a setback in a congressional primary vote. Meanwhile, the ruling party’s leadership contest will start in Japan this week, Russia’s main party will win a comfortable majority in…
China’s securities regulator has called for better communication with its US counterpart. Peru’s newly appointed Finance Minister might help calm markets. Meanwhile, India’s central bank is expected to leave key rates unchanged, Bulgaria’s parliament will vote on the new prime minister, Brazil’s branches of government return to work this week,…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Click on…
Last weekend’s floods could have political repercussions in Germany. The visit of Turkey’s president to Northern Cyprus could create tensions with the EU over the divided island. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s government has extended Covid-19 restrictions, Serbian and Kosovar leaders will meet for normalization talks, Colombia’s congress will reopen for its final…
China has condemned the U.S. decision to blacklist more Chinese companies. The EU will present a set of green legislative projects. Ethiopia’s election results have been announced. Germany's chancellor will visit the U.S. president. Meanwhile, India’s PM will gather a meeting of the council of ministers, Spain’s PM has reshuffled…
China’s regulator has announced investigations into major online platforms. Ethiopia’s prime minister faces multiple challenges. Meanwhile, India’s cabinet will be reshuffled, snap elections will be held in Bulgaria, Chile’s constituent assembly experienced a chaotic first session, and South Africa’s former president is topping the agenda of the country’s ruling party.
The latest in a series of increasingly frequent droughts is expected to produce a poor harvest this year, fueling a further rise in food prices and frustrating the government’s hopes of curbing the country’s persistently high inflation. The lack of rain is also already impacting hydropower and threatening regional brownouts…
China has dismissed U.S. concerns on media freedom in Hong Kong. Chile’s new constituent assembly will be formed. Russia’s president will hold his Q&A session. Meanwhile, India’s government will announce new support to private business, Romania’s government is expected to survive a no-confidence vote, the Covid-19 senate inquiry continues in…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Please click…
Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table (click below on 'View PDF') summarizes the impact of elections in EMs over the next 15 months. Markets are ordered in accordance with the electoral calendar. Risk ratings are relative to each country, and not comparative across all countries listed. The table is intended…
G7 leaders have agreed to prevent forced labor in global supply chains. The US-Russia summit is unlikely to ameliorate tensions. Peru’s electoral authorities are reviewing the presidential election results. Regional and departmental elections will take place in France. Cote d’Ivoire’s former president returns to the country. Meanwhile, Thailand’s vaccine rollout…
In Mexico, AMLO’s coalition is well short of a two-thirds majority. EU and US leaders will meet for several transatlantic summits. Vote counting is continuing in Peru. Meanwhile, India’s PM will address the nation, the Greens are the party of the new middle classes, not of Middle Germany, Brazil’s footballers…
In China, three children will be allowed per family. Peru’s presidential run-off election takes place this week. A regional election will be held in Germany. Meanwhile, BRICS nations’ foreign ministers will meet virtually, Latvia’s municipal elections could have national implications, Mexico will hold lower-house mid-term and state gubernatorial elections, Cote…
The EU will discuss sanctions on Belarus. India’s foreign secretary will visit the US. Meanwhile, China’s regulatory focus on data privacy is increasing, environmental policies will be discussed at this week’s EU summit, Peru’s leading presidential candidates will engage in a televised debate, and elections will be held in Ethiopia.
African and European leaders will gather in Paris. The foreign ministers of Russia and the US will meet in Iceland. China has landed its first rover on Mars. The recent elections in Chile will have varied implications. Meanwhile, India’s PM will hold consultations with district magistrates, a cabinet reshuffle is…
China’s Sinopharm has been approved by the WHO for emergency use. Chile will face several elections this week, including a constituent assembly election. Italy’s government will approve a new stimulus package. Meanwhile, China’s Sichuan Airlines will restart operations to India, there is still a majority in favor of independence from…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Please click…
India will receive medical aid to combat the worst Covid-19 outbreak in the world. Italy’s Mario Draghi will present the post-pandemic recovery plan. China will allow inbound travelers from the US to enter if they are vaccinated. A general strike is taking place in Colombia. Meanwhile, Japan’s PM received an…
The US-led global climate summit will take place this week. International efforts to reduce tensions between Russia and Ukraine will continue. Germany’s ruling alliance remains undecided on who should run as its chancellor candidate. In Peru, a hard left candidate is leading the polls ahead of the run-off presidential election.
Chinese vaccines are in the spotlight. Japan’s PM will visit US President Joe Biden. The race for the Merkel succession is heating up further in Germany. Diplomatic efforts will attempt to prevent an escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Guillermo Lasso will be Ecuador’s new president. Meanwhile, France’s foreign…
Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of this week's key developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Please click…
China is boycotting Western apparel brands. Myanmar’s military junta is acting more violently against protesters. Ratification of the EU’s pandemic recovery fund is on hold in Germany. In South Africa, the ruling party's leadership faces a showdown between factions. Chile’s April elections could be postponed to May. Meanwhile, restrictions might…
A summit of top US and Chinese diplomats produced modest progress. In Turkey, a cabinet reshuffle is expected. EU leaders will meet for a digital European Council. Another general election is taking place in Israel. Meanwhile, the pace of vaccinations is accelerating in China, Slovakia’s government crisis continues, Argentina’s finance…
US top officials will meet their counterparts from several countries across Asia. The outcome of Japan’s central bank policy review will be announced. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel’s party has suffered defeats in two regional polls. The campaign for the presidential run-off vote will start in Ecuador. Meanwhile, a US federal…
China's annual parliament session convened last week. Italy’s government is expected to extend a freeze on layoffs. In Germany, the race for the Merkel succession will be accelerated by two regional elections. Meanwhile, in Myanmar unions have called for a nationwide strike, Slovakia’s coalition government faces an internal crisis, Brazil’s…
In Italy, new Covid restrictions are expected. Ecuador’s presidential election vote recount is being challenged. Talks between Zambia’s government and the IMF end this week. Meanwhile, the UN has criticized China’s human rights record, in the UK the chancellor will present his budget, Brazil’s senate will seek agreement on a…
In Myanmar, protests are increasing despite growing violence from security forces. In Ecuador, political tensions remain high ahead of April’s presidential run-off election. Italy could follow the UK’s first-dose strategy. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s action plan against money laundering and terrorism financing will be reviewed this week, the EU will struggle to…
The US and UK governments have criticized China for allegedly interfering in the WHO investigation into the origins of Covid-19. Italy’s new PM will appear before parliament this week to present his program. Meanwhile, India’s farmers continue to protest against new market-friendly agriculture laws, Slovenia’s center-right government has survived a…
The first high-level talks between Chinese officials and the new US administration have been held. In Italy, Mario Draghi’s new cabinet could be announced. After the first round of Ecuador’s presidential election, it is still unclear who came in second. South Africa’s president will deliver his annual State of the…
The political effects of the coup in Myanmar will be damaging. The Commission’s chaotic attempt to weaponize the Northern Ireland protocol has badly undermined the EU’s political credibility. A Chinese cell phone manufacturer filed a complaint in a US federal court. In Italy, a way out of the government crisis…
Two Chinese-made Covid-19 vaccines will be scrutinized by the WHO. Italy’s prime minister could resign in the coming days. The popularity of Brazil’s president has declined amid a worsening of the pandemic. Meanwhile, Japan will pass a supplemental budget, a new coalition government will be formed in Estonia, an Argentinian…
China is fighting the worst Covid-19 outbreak since March 2020. Italy’s Prime Minister faces a tougher test in the Senate after winning a confidence vote in the lower house. In Germany, Armin Laschet is expected to be confirmed as the new leader of the Christian Democrats. Meanwhile, negotiations between protesting…
China appears to be pushing back against new US sanctions. Germany’s Christian Democrats will choose a new party leader. In Argentina, three major agricultural unions will start a three-day strike. Ghana’s Supreme Court will decide on a legal challenge to the presidential election results. Meanwhile, India will start the Covid-19…
China has approved Sinopharm’s Covid-19 vaccine for general use. The new border arrangement between the UK and the EU will be tested after the holiday season. Ghana’s president will officially start his second term. In Italy, tensions within the coalition could bring down the government. Meanwhile, negotiations between protesting farmers…
Trade negotiations between the UK and the EU continue. Nasdaq will remove four Chinese companies’ shares from indexes. South Africa’s president is expected to announce new Covid-19 related measures. Meanwhile, India’s Supreme Court could rule in favor of expelling farmers on protest, Germany will implement a strict lockdown ahead of…
Below please find key take-outs from our December 10th panel with Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor of The Times; Ursula Burns, Teneo Senior Advisor, former Chairman and CEO of VEON and former Chairman and CEO of Xerox; Wolfango Piccoli, Co-President of Teneo's Political Risk Advisory group; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser…
Indonesia and Brazil have received doses of a vaccine made in China. EU leaders will try to overcome vetoes against the bloc’s budget and recovery fund. UK-EU trade talks continue. Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in Ghana. Meanwhile, the Japanese government will approve further fiscal stimulus, Italy’s parliament…
China has imposed new tariffs on Australian wine. A last-minute trade deal between the UK and the EU is still likely. Venezuela’s legislative elections will be boycotted by opposition parties. Ethiopia’s army has seized control of Tigray’s capital. Meanwhile, a constitutional court decision in Thailand could challenge the prime minister’s…
Our global outlook includes the views of our political risk team on the main issues to watch in each region in 2021. As the medium-term response and the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic take shape next year, politics will continue to be crucial. Our global platform of analysts stands ready,…
China has suspended frozen food imports from 20 countries. The Tigray conflict is spreading beyond Ethiopia's borders. The EU recovery fund is threatened by national vetoes. Peru’s congress will vote in a new president. Meanwhile, the leaders of India and China will meet virtually at the 12th BRICS summit, UK-EU…
The mid-November deadline is approaching in EU-UK talks. In Ethiopia, the conflict with the Tigray region has escalated. Peru’s president will face an impeachment vote in Congress. Meanwhile, Australia’s trade minister has denied rumors about new trade restrictions from China, Hungary will impose new Covid-19-related restrictions, Brazil’s president has gotten…
While all eyes are on the 3 November US elections, here is what else should be watched this week: European countries are implementing harsher restrictions again. China’s latest Covid-19 outbreak seems to have been contained. Peru’s Congress will decide whether to start an impeachment process against the president. Cote d’Ivoire’s…
China’s health authorities have discovered new Covid-19 cases. Italy has announced new restrictive measures. Thailand’s parliament will start a special session over anti-government demonstrations. Peru’s President Martin Vizcarra could face another impeachment process. Cote d’Ivoire will go to the polls in a tense environment. Meanwhile, Japan’s PM will face parliamentary…
Anti-government protests have gained momentum in Thailand. On his first trip abroad, Japan’s new PM is visiting Vietnam and Indonesia. The UK and the EU will continue their future relationship negotiations. In Chile, the process for constitutional changes will begin this week with a referendum. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s biggest political party…
The G20 are due to decide on the future of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). Diplomatic efforts will continue to halt the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. South Africa’s president will present an economic recovery plan. It will likely take until the end of the month for a UK-EU…
Foreign ministers from the US, Australia, India and Japan will meet in Tokyo to discuss common regional concerns. In South Africa, four trade unions will join forces in a one-day strike. The EU has sanctioned Belarusian officials. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s parliament might pass a job creation bill, the first round of…
China’s biggest chipmaker will be affected by new US export control rules. Optimism is returning to the post-Brexit EU-UK talks. In Argentina, the economic situation will remain highly unsettled ahead of an imminent IMF staff visit. Spain’s top court has upheld a temporary ban from public office for Catalonia’s regional…
The EU is unlikely to impose economically meaningful sanctions on Turkey. In Peru, political tensions are likely to remain high even after President Vizcarra survived an impeachment vote. Poland’s coalition government has been weakened after a divisive vote in parliament. Meanwhile, China’s TikTok will avoid a ban on downloads from…
The Trump administration will announce sanctions on US imports from western China's Xinjiang region. Yoshihide Suga will be selected as Japan’s next PM. Belarusian President Lukashenko will meet his Russian counterpart. South Africa’s government could relax Covid-19 related restrictions. Leaders of the EU and China will meet today for a…
The German chancellor is increasing the pressure on the Russian government in the Navalny case. There is renewed speculation about a no-deal UK exit from the Brexit transition period. In South Africa, recent economic data shows the country’s difficulties with the post-pandemic recovery. Meanwhile, journalists for US news outlets have…
In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party has agreed on the format for selecting Shinzo Abe's successor. In Brazil, a new social program could be in the making. The normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo seems to be gaining momentum. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s prime minister remains politically vulnerable, anti-government demonstrations could…
In Belarus, protests continue against President Lukashenko. In South Korea, the surge in Covid-19 cases has caused the reintroduction of public health measures. In Venezuela, opposition leader Juan Guaido will present his plan to bring opposition parties together. In South Africa, the president and the finance minister will appear before…
In Germany, the deadline for the required proportionality assessment on the ECB’s PSPP is approaching. In Brazil, a reform of the tax system could be on its way, which could include a new digital services tax. In South Africa, a PPE corruption scandal is affecting the government. Meanwhile, the bilateral…
In China, HSBC denied reports by Chinese official media accusing the bank of acting as an accomplice to the U.S. and lying about Huawei. In Spain, a nationwide lockdown is unlikely in the coming days despite the rising number of Covid-19 cases. In Chile, the president will make this week…
EU leaders will continue negotiations about the bloc’s budget and recovery fund. In China, severe floods might cause disruptions to supply chains for personal protective equipment. In Mexico, several state governors are refusing to implement the central government’s Covid-19 traffic light system. In South Africa, the government might announce new…
China’s military exercise in the South China Sea was followed by a US exercise. Mexico’s president will visit the White House following the entry into force of the new USMCA trade agreement. In Japan, the governor of Tokyo has been reelected. South Africa’s supplementary budget will create noise. In Germany,…
Below please find key take-outs from our July 1st senior panel with Professor Karol Sikora, CMO of Rutherford Health, Founding Dean and Professor of Medicine and Ex-Director of the WHO Cancer Programme; Claire Enders, Founder of Enders Analysis; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary; and Wolfango Piccoli,…
Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table summarizes the impact of elections in EMs over the next 12 months. Markets are ordered in accordance with the electoral calendar. Risk ratings are relative to each country, and not comparative across all countries listed. The table is intended as a summary, not to replace…
Below please find key take-outs from our June 24th senior panel with Oliver Shah, Sunday Times Business Editor; The Right Honourable Brian Mulroney, P.C., Teneo Senior Adviser and former Canadian Prime Minister; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary; and Wolfango Piccoli, Co-President of Teneo's Risk Practice and…
New confirmed cases of Covid-19 have brought back some lockdown restrictions to China’s capital. The UK will not ask for an extension of the transition period. Brazil’s senate is expected to vote on job suspension and salary reductions. Meanwhile, South Korea’s president marked the second anniversary of his visit to…
Below please find key take-outs from our June 10th senior panel with Stephanie Flanders, Head of Bloomberg Economics and former BBC Economics Editor; James Graham, multi award winning playwright and screenwriter; Ursula Burns, Teneo Senior Advisor and former CEO of Xerox; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary…
Below please find key take-outs from our June 3rd senior panel with William J. Bratton, Executive Chairman of Teneo’s Risk Advisory Practice and twice former Police Commissioner of New York; Deborah Mattinson, Founding Partner of BritainThinks, Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary and Wolfango Piccoli, Co-President of…
In China, a Sars-Cov2 vaccine could be ready soon. Brazil’s president seems to be facing increasing contestation from civil society. Russia’s government will ramp up fiscal stimulus. South Africa is moving to pandemic “level 3.” Germany’s government will finalize plans for a stimulus package. Meanwhile, South Korea is preparing for…
Below please find key take-outs from our May 20th senior panel with Lord Jim O'Neil, former Treasury Minister and former Chairman of Goldman Sach's Division of Asset Management; Lord Andrew Cooper, co-founder of Populus and former Downing Street Adviser, Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary and Wolfango…
Below please find key take-outs from our May 20th senior panel with Carolyn Fairbairn, Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI); Lord William Hague, former Foreign Secretary and Teneo Senior Adviser, Deborah Mattinson, Founding Partner of BritainThinks, and Wolfango Piccoli, Co-President of Teneo’s Risk Practice and chaired by Principal…
Below please find key take-outs from our May 13th senior panel with Matthew d'Ancona, Editor and Partner at Tortoise Media and columnist at the Evening Standard; Victor Yang, global Director of Corporate Affairs at Geely; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary; Wolfango Piccoli, Co-President of Teneo’s Risk…
Below please find key take-outs from our May 6th senior panel with Mark Weinberger, Teneo Senior Advisor and former Global Chairman & CEO, EY; Lord Mervyn Davies, Teneo Senior Advisor, former CEO of Standard Chartered, and Minister for Trade; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Advisor and former Home Secretary; and Wolfango…
As outlined by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte last Sunday, Italy will start gradually easing its lockdown on 4 May. Yet, Conte’s problems have soared since his announcement. The government’s hold on the emergency – never strong – is challenged due to mounting clashes with regional governors. Meanwhile, public anger is…
In this summary table, we provide an overview of the lockdown exit strategies currently being planned by selected countries around the world and the surrounding politics. Please click the download button below to see the table. Do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the…
Below please find key take-outs from our April 22nd senior panel with Humphrey Cobbold, CEO of PureGym; Sir David Dalton, Former CEO of Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust and Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary; and Wolfango Piccoli, Teneo’s Co-President, Political Risk Advisory - chaired…
In this piece, we provide an overview of the coronavirus lockdown exit strategies currently being planned by selected European governments and the surrounding politics. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.
Below please find key take-outs from our April 15th conference call featuring Steve Foots, CEO of Croda, a FTSE 50 British chemicals company; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary; Wolfango Piccoli Teneo’s Director of Research; and Matt Lovering, Teneo Senior Managing Director and Head of Teneo's Transport and Mobility…
Please click here for the latest edition of our daily Europe coronavirus update. Today we include a table summarizing the exit strategies from lockdowns being discussed in selected European countries.
Below please find key take-outs from our April 8th conference call featuring Adrian Gore, CEO of Discovery/Vitality and partner to some of the biggest insurance companies in the world; Amber Rudd, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Home Secretary; Jerome Hauer, Ph.D, Teneo Senior Adviser and former Commissioner of the Division of Homeland…
The first of our macro/Covid-19 pieces dealt with its impact on globalization; in this second note, we look at the politics of technological solutions to deal with the outbreak. While privacy concerns might dominate in developed economies, regions such as Southeast Asia might make use of digital tracking tools to…
Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table (click here to view full PDF) summarizes the political ability of different governments to manage the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, as well as key economic pressure points per country. It also includes an integrated assessment of each country’s current overall level of vulnerability. Markets…
Courtney Adante, Jerome Hauer, Ph.D, Jonathan Wackrow, Martha Carter, Orson Porter, Stephen Cohen and Wolf Piccoli join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the latest updates and developments regarding the effect of the coronavirus. Listen to the Call Kevin Kajiwara…
For outside observers, 2019 might have looked somewhat like a head spin in European politics. First and foremost, Brexit was postponed. Meanwhile, elections in Spain saw the continuation of a hung parliament. In contrast, in Greece, polls resulted in the return to a rather traditional-looking center-right government, and in Denmark…
Our Emerging Markets (EMs) outlook table summarizes the impact of elections in EMs over the next 18 months. It also includes our broad view on the trajectory of these countries, highlighting the capacity of governments to implement policies to mitigate the economic challenges they face. Markets are ordered in…
Four topics are likely to draw significant attention in 2019 in Europe: Brexit, the European Parliament elections, polls in Southern Europe, and a crucial ballot in Poland. Below we cut through the noise they will likely generate in order to focus on the issues that will matter: TOPIC 1: The…
Compared to previous years, 2019 will be light on big elections in Europe. Greece will have to go to the polls and Spain might, but the main political risk will not emanate from the electoral ballot. Rather than populist forces making further inroads, political risk in 2019 will be defined…
President Erdogan’s fresh attempts to compensate for the crisis in his relations with the US by re-engaging with the EU are set to fall far short of his expectations.The EU will neither grant any major political concessions nor provide Turkey with any meaningful financial assistance. Perhaps more worryingly, the focus…
With his re-election, Tayyip Erdogan has become Turkey’s most powerful leader since the country began to hold multi-party elections. There is no reason to think that he will pursue more accommodating policies as the first president with full executive power in a system without serious mechanisms of checks and balances.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has announced snap presidential and parliamentary elections for 24 June 2018. The uncertainty of the country’s economic outlook and a desire to catch opposition parties off guard are probably behind the president’s change of mind. Erdogan’s likely victory is unlikely to bring political stability or be…
The risk of a disorderly Brexit is now at 40% (up from 30%). Leaders will start working towards EU reform, but the time window is very narrow. Short-termism dominates economic policy making amid continued populist pressures in CEE. 1. Brexit: Now For The Difficult Part Negotiations between…
President Tayyip Erdogan publicly denied on 4 December that the country is considering introducing capital controls, one day after he accused some Turkish businesses of treason for transferring money abroad and called on the Cabinet to take measures to address the issue. On 3 December, during an address to a…
For all the fears of a populist takeover, 2017 ended on pretty traditional terms in European politics: having won the September Bundestag elections, German Chancellor Angela Merkel concluded day one of her fourth consecutive term in office with a dinner at the Elysee Palace in Paris – hosted by France’s…
Look for Uncertainty to be a Major Trend Last year, we looked ahead to 2016 as a transitional year in Europe. Since then, the United Kingdom’s (UK) vote to leave the European Union (EU), the rising terrorist threat and the bloc’s ever-more complex relationship with Turkey have rocked markets. In…
