DePasquale leads Brier in Democratic primary in 10th District, but race remains too close to call

Democratic congressional hopefuls Tom Brier, left, and Eugene DePasquale.

The Democratic primary for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District between Tom Brier, left, and Eugene DePasquale, right, will hinge on a torrent of mail-in ballots.Charles Thompson

State Auditor General Eugene DePasquale has pulled out to an early lead in the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional district that, if it holds up as mail-in ballots are tallied over the next several days, would give the national Democratic Party its dream candidate for a challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Scott Perry.

But as Wednesday dawns, the big question remains: Is that lead big enough?

That’s because the totals tabulated Tuesday night are significantly skewed in DePasquale’s favor since they include mail-in ballots received in York County, DePasquale’s home base and the one area where he was resoundingly outpolling his rival, Tom Brier.

Preliminary results showed DePasquale defeating Brier by a more than 4-1 margin in York, while the two candidates were running neck and neck in Cumberland County, and Brier held a commanding 2-1 lead in Dauphin County, his home turf. But there are a torrent of mail-in ballots - likely more than 40,000 - still to be counted in Dauphin and Cumberland.

That’s why Brier, a 28-year-old attorney from Hershey making his first run for public office, was conceding nothing Tuesday night.

“On the whole, I think we’re kind of where we need to be,” Brier said in a telephone interview. "If our two-to-one lead in Dauphin County holds up in the mail-in count, we’re right there."

With all counties reporting their in-person votes today and York County adding in its mail and absentee ballots, DePasquale is leading Brier by 23,878 to 14,183, or 62.7 percent to 37.3 percent.

That count is based on all polling place results Tuesday in Dauphin, Cumberland and York counties, plus the mail-in and absentee ballots in York. But between Dauphin and Cumberland, there are expected to be about 40,000 mail-in and absentee ballots still to be counted. Election directors in those counties had said from the start that they would begin tallying those votes on Wednesday.

That’s a significant last hope for Brier, who defeated DePasquale 7,314 votes to 3,769 votes at the polls in Dauphin, and edged him by a 2,845 to 2,793 margin in Cumberland.

Cumberland elections officials had received 17,085 votes from Democratic voters as of Tuesday afternoon. Dauphin County had received 25,189 ballot requests according to campaign officials. It was not clear how many of those ballots had been received as completed votes to date; adding another wrinkle, Gov. Tom Wolf has extended the deadline for Dauphin County voters to return their ballots to June 9.

DePasquale’s campaign released this statement from its candidate early Wednesday:

“There are thousands of ballots left to be counted, but it’s clear that there is real momentum behind this campaign and our vision for South Central Pennsylvania. As we wait for more voices to be heard, I want to thank all of the supporters across this community who have joined our team to take on government dysfunction and ensure Washington actually works for all families, particularly when it comes to affordable health care, reviving and growing our economy, and tackling climate change. This campaign is ready for the general election against Scott Perry, and we look forward to moving forward officially.

“I also want to thank our county election officials and poll workers who worked overtime to administer this election under these unprecedented circumstances and will continue to do so over the next few days.”

Regional, state and national Democratic Party leaders will hope that DePasquale’s lead holds up, as they figure that a candidate like DePasquale who has won statewide office would be able to match Perry in resources, campaign ability and name recognition in the newly-competitive 10th District.

The district covers all of Dauphin County, the eastern half of Cumberland County from the Susquehanna to Carlisle, and the northern half of York County, including the city of York.

It landed on the nation’s political consciousness in 2018, when the district suddenly looked dramatically different than the one Perry was first elected to in 2012. Two years ago, Perry barely held back a spirited challenge from George Scott, a retired Army officer-turned-Lutheran pastor, who was making his first run for public office. Scott is running for a state Senate seat this year.

But to get to the fall campaign, DePasquale must first vanquish Brier, who is making a Kennedy-esque, new Democrat appeal aimed at marrying progressive voters with younger and minority voters who don’t usually win turnout rate battles.

Voters who chose DePasquale Tuesday said they were doing so generally because they had come to admire his record as auditor general.

“I like what he stands for, and he gives me a feeling that he actually cares,” said voter John Christopher, a 47-year-old warehouse employee as he left a Carlisle polling place.

Brier supporters, meanwhile, said they were attracted to his freshness.

“I liked the message that he was casting in his (television) ads,” said Carlisle resident Mark Heeb. “Climate change, health care those are all the key issues that I align with... And I like the young guy.”

DePasquale is nearing the end of his second term as the fiscal watchdog of state government and can’t run for that office again. For the time being, DePasquale appears to have done his party a big favor by running for Congress instead of joining what might be crowded party primary battles for governor and U.S. Senate in 2022.

DePasquale’s luster as an incumbent statewide officeholder, who’s also won local races inside this district, has captivated Democrats nationally. But Brier’s little-engine-that-could effort raised enough money to mount a respectable television advertising campaign, and the candidate backed it up by a string of strong debate performances.

There were times during the campaign when it appeared DePasquale was treating this campaign like a great track star who runs controlled races in the early heats of his event, to save his best race for the finals. Brier, for example, was first on the airwaves with his television ad, and he peppered the district with yard signs, while DePasquale relied mainly on a series of traditional campaign mailers.

Politically, both Democrats would mark a dramatic turn from Perry, a Republican who is seeking his fifth term and second in the present-day 10th District. Truth be told, there’s not a great deal of daylight between their core policy positions.

Both Brier and DePasquale, for example, are unabashed supporters of new gun control efforts, taking strong action against climate change and rewriting the federal tax code in a way to create more benefits for middle- and working class households. They are also both strong defenders of a woman’s right to have an abortion.

But comparing the two, Brier is the candidate that pushes a little further toward purely progressive goals.

The newcomer has also not flinched at throwing punches at DePasquale, excoriating him for his 2011 vote as a state legislator for a gerrymandered Congressional map that was eventually tossed by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. DePasquale has said that he regrets that vote, but noted that it came in the wake of a lost battle for redistricting reform.

And in April, Brier filed an Federal Election Commission complaint alleging DePasquale inappropriately used old campaign funds raised for his past state races for the current Congressional bid, something DePasquale has denied. Because of what the Brier campaign has described as notarizing difficulties tied to the pandemic, the complaint has not yet been formally taken up by the FEC.

DePasquale, meanwhile, has argued that he’s the candidate who is built for the long haul in this race. He contends he would be the most effective representative in Washington of all the current candidates if elected, based on his track record as an official who is cognizant of the art of the possible.

DePasquale has touted his independence from both parties as a two-term Auditor General who found problems in state government during both Republican and Democratic administrations. Citing his six years in the Pennsylvania House before becoming auditor general, DePasquale said he has demonstrated the ability to work across the aisle to achieve his aims.

DePasquale, 48, also related that pragmatic streak to electability, a guiding star for many Democrats in 2020.

“My job, if I’m your member of Congress, is to represent this district, not an ideology,” he told a Camp Hill audience at a March forum. “That’s why I can win this primary, win this general election, and send Scott Perry packing.”

A big point of contention in the primary campaign was campaign finance.

Brier has made a big deal of his refusal to accept any money from corporate political action committees. DePasquale, Brier said, has accepted corporate money his whole career, and Brier says it’s enough to raise legitimate questions about who a candidate is really representing.

DePasquale has tried to blunt this attack by arguing that it’s a falsehood to say that receipt of a campaign contribution - or any other kind of political alliance - means the recipient has somehow forfeited their right to scrutinize said donor, industry, or special interest, and his record proves it.

“This is about the fights you take on,” DePasquale said, adding that his terms in the state House representing York City and two terms as Auditor General provide all the evidence any voter needs to see.

“As a member of Congress, I will fight for you every single minute," he said.

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