Russian troops were battling into a major Donbas city today as a confidential UK report revealed the Kremlin’s army could collapse amid massive losses.
A secretive analysis of the invasion says Russian President Vladimir Putin believes losses of 30,350 troops so far are a “price worth paying” for a small victory in Ukraine.
But the new report - seen by senior UK government officials and written by a top UK analyst on Russia warns Putin’s blood sacrifice may be a step too far for his troops.
Today Moscow’s troops entered the city of Sievierodonetsk sparking fierce fighting in the ruins of the latest concentration of Russian violence against its neighbour.
Fresh figures revealed Russia’s latest suspected losses in weaponry are 207
warplanes destroyed, along with 174 helicopters, 1349 tanks and 13 boats.
The report suggests Kremlin figures have tried in vain to persuade Putin his invasion is a catastrophe but that the President believes he can still win a “partial victory.”
The analysis, given to the Mirror, does not believe that failure in Ukraine to even win outright in Donbas will lead to Putin ordering a nuclear strike.
But it does suggest the Russian leader has convinced himself that a victory in contested Donbas is now in sight and will give him huge leverage against Kyiv.
And failure would result in him being deposed.
And this comes amid increasing reports of mutinies within the Russian Army over poor conditions and the sheer weight of losses among the troops.
The report says: “Russia’s attempt to achieve a speedy and decisive victory in the Donbas has not yet succeeded. They are still grinding forward, gaining 1-2km a day.
“The Russians are now achieving what successes they have mostly by means of a slogging match with repeated, very costly, infantry attacks reminiscent of 1945 not 2022.
“The gross failures of the campaign Putin has so far been able to hide quite well from the Russian public, or to blame on various officials, who have been arrested and replaced.
“The Russian population until recently bought Putin’s disinformation. We have seen an attempt within the Kremlin to get a message across to Putin and his closest team that things are going wrong, perhaps even catastrophically wrong.
British Russia commentator Bruce Jones told The Mirror: “There has to be a point when Russian forces cannot take any more losses, a cut-off point.
“This would be a straw that broke the camel’s moment, where units would no longer be able to function as a fighting force because they are so depleted.
“It has happened before and on a small scale it is happening now - so this could become a reality.”
Constant shelling has left Ukrainian troops defending Sievierodonetsk valiantly but the invaders have entered the south east and north east edges of the city.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “Capturing Sievierodonetsk is a fundamental task for the occupiers.
“We are doing all we can to hold this advance.”
“Some 90% of buildings are damaged. More than two-thirds of the city’s housing stock has been completely destroyed.”
Russia announced that the focus of its “special military operation” was now to seize the entire Donbas region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday said the “liberation” of the Donbas was an “unconditional priority” for Moscow.
Analysis by Chris Hughes, Defence and Security Editor
Victory in Donbas might be enough for Vladimir Putin to agree to withdraw troops from the rest of Ukraine.
It may end a conflict that has killed over 30,000 of his troops and tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
This was a fall-back choice for Russia, whose troops were sent fleeing in retreat from Kyiv after being driven back by a courageous Ukrainian counter-attack.
But Donbas would be a compromise too far for Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky who said Russia must withdraw to pre-February positions.
He knows he needs to save as much leverage as possible until serious negotiations are underway - and crucially, he knows, the Kremlin cannot be trusted anyway.
Even if Moscow does agree to a ceasefire it has been breaking these agreements in Donbas since war in the east started in 2014.
Obsessed Putin apparently believes a Donbas victory is close but Russia’s advances are glacial compared to the speed the Kremlin had anticipated.
And an increasingly well-supplied and highly-motivated Ukrainian military has repeatedly beaten off the Russian advance.
Some analysts believe Ukraine can win, even force Russia back and its soldiers are getting new weapons supplies every week, including high-tech artillery units.
Ukraine is fighting for its life and has proved a formidable defender and Russia’s military has been found woefully badly-trained and poor supplied.
It could be that the only way this war can end is with the death or absence of Vladimir Putin.