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Initial Estimates Show Fall Enrollments Up At Several Public Universities

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Just as the recent Covid-19 outbreak continues to surge in many parts of the country - typically in the form of the highly contagious Delta variant - hundreds of colleges and universities are welcoming students back to campus. Many are hosting their first day of classes, almost all of them via live instruction in classrooms, a far cry from the remote learning that was so prominent a year ago.

With those re-openings, college leaders are eager to see what their enrollment numbers will look like. While fall attendance is always of major interest in higher ed circles, the anticipation has been especially pronounced this year, given the enrollment struggles that many institutions have endured throughout the pandemic.

At several major public universities, the early reports are encouraging. It’s important to remember that almost all of these figures are preliminary; they won’t be official until two or three weeks from now. But here are a few of the recent enrollment estimates at leading public universities.

Arizona State University (ASU) is welcoming its largest class of first-year, on-campus students ever — more than 14,350, a 12% increase (1,500 students) compared to fall 2020. Over 77,000 students are taking classes in person across ASU’s campuses and other locations, compared with 74,000 last year — an increase of more than 4%.

The University of Missouri (MU) reported that its preliminary enrollment was up this fall compared to last year. Overall enrollment was reported to be 31,121, a 1% increase year over year. Undergraduate enrollment increased to 25,533, also a 1% jump. MU’s transfer enrollment was up by 1.27%.

As Purdue University began its classes yesterday it was preparing to welcome the largest number of students to campus in its history, including a freshman class of more than 10,000 students, 1,200 more than the incoming class of 2020.

Oklahoma State University (OSU) reported that it was anticipating enrolling the second-largest freshman class in school history. Total enrollment was projected to increase by more than 140 students across OSU’s campuses in Stillwater and Tulsa with total enrollment moving above 24,580. The university also revealed that historically underrepresented students would make up over 30% of the incoming class, the most diverse OSU class on record.

Michigan State University was projecting an entering class of at least 9,200 students when its classes begin next week. That would be an increase of more than 11% over last year.

Other major state institutions reporting robust enrollment figures - either for freshmen or overall - at the semester’s start include the University of Arizona, University of South Carolina, and University of Tennessee,

Some Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) - such a Howard University, which is private and Bowie State University, a public HBCU - were also looking forward to substantial enrollment gains.

Last year saw a one-year decline in total U.S. college enrollment of 3.5% according to the final spring report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. That equated to a loss of more than 600,000 students from the prior year. Most of that decrease was due to a drop in undergraduate students. In fact, enrollment of graduate students increased by a healthy 4.6%.

While total enrollment at public four-year universities was down only .6% last spring, the big question has been whether those - and other - schools would be able to overcome the continuing threat of the pandemic and reassure students that it was safe to return to campus this fall. Would enrollments bounce back?

A combination of measures may be doing the trick. First, hundreds of schools, including several of those reporting strong fall numbers, have continued to use test-optional admissions, a policy that’s often associated with an increased number of applications.

Second, conscious of growing concerns about student debt, many institutions have been very conservative in setting their tuition rates for the current year, including a significant number that froze tuition at last year’s level or raised it only by 1 or 2%.

And finally, in recent weeks, most major universities have adopted more aggressive coronavirus mitigation measures, including the imposition of mask mandates and required vaccinations. Those steps appear to be resonating with students, who - according to recent polling - are strongly in favor of their schools taking such steps to assure the greatest level of campus health protection possible.

By the third week in September, we’ll have a much more complete picture of the college enrollment scene, including, of course, those institutions that suffer losses. But for now, these early figures show that some public universities are successfully bucking pessimistic predictions and enjoying strong, preliminary enrollment results.

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