While I don't agree with the option of owning your
own and
renting it out
"AirB&B
-style where
B&B =
Mobility". It
is easier and
more likely to
begin by
having a
Professional
entity
managing a
fleet of Tesla
RoboTaxis that
provide
mobility to
the everyone
in the
community.
This will be
the the
"Modern Public
Transit". An
example being
Trenton MOVES
using a fleet
of Tesla
RoboTaxis.
For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet
operator, they
will need to
be styled
differently
than consumer
versions that
are sold to
individuals.
The RoboTaxi
will need to
be easy to get
in and out and
interface well
with
wheelchairs.
They'll need
to accommodate
ride-sharing
(personTrips
are the source
of the
revenue, not
vehicle
sales). They
should have
4-wheel
steering so
they will
never need to
back up in
stub-end
operation. He
has re
imagined the
pickup truck.
Certainly, he
can re-imagine
a car focused
on providing
safe,
equitable,
affordable,
sustainable
high-quality
mobility
throughout a
community.
At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he
states ..." assuming we do all these things, I think, probably,
Tesla will be
the most
valuable
company in the
world."
@ t=7057 Elon is asked "when will Tesla
launch the
first pilot
city for the
RoboTaxi
business?
Elon dodged the question by stating that he is
focused on
doing
driverless
everywhere,
even in every
imaginable
simulation of
the real
world.
Consequently,
once achieved,
it could be
released
everywhere al
at once.
While
a great
vision, this
is simply not
realistic. He
started
selling Teslas
in California,
not throughout
the whole
country. He
fully
understands
that one must
crawl before
one walks,
before one
runs.
As
you might
suspect, I
have the ideal
"California"
for him to
first deploy
his RoboTaxis
and its not
California or
Arizona. It
is New Jersey:
Trenton, NJ or
Perth Amboy,
NJ or
Patterson, NJ
or many other
cities in New
Jersey where
the mobility
offered by
Tesla
RoboTaxis
would be life
changing to
many while
becoming an
interesting
alternative to
everyone
else. DoJo
can more
readily
regress the
coefficients
to deliver
safe
driverless
operation
within any one
of these
Operational
Design Domains
(ODD) rather
than trying to
do them all
simultaneously.
Coefficients
can/should be
tied to ODDs
rather than
having one
"magical" set
that works in
all ODDs. It
is trivial for
the Operating
system to load
the
coefficients
that work best
in
theRoboTaxi's
current ODD.
This should
allow
RoboTaxis to
demonstrate
their
technical,
economic and
societal
virtues much
sooner in
these
communities.
Market success
will fuel
expansion and
replication in
the delivery
of safe,
equitable,
affordable,
sustainable,
high-quality
mobility so
that is
spreads beyond
New Jersey to
California and
beyond just
like the
purchase of
the first
Teslas spread
from
California to
New Jersey and
beyond.
@ t=7417 Elon is asked about the Boring
Company.
True,
if one
could bore
tunnels
inexpensively,
it would be
great for
longer
distance
travel.
Certainly, all
of the
freeways in
and around
cities would
be placed
underground.
High Speed
rail on the
NorthEast
Corridor can
only go
underground
for long
stretches.
Bringing the
Dinky to a
Nassau Street
terminus must
be done
underground.
By the way
Washington
Road should be
underground
eradicating
the cancer
that it is as
a surface
street
severing the
Princeton
Campus. Then
there is Rt.
29 that
devastated
Trenton by
barricading
the western
part of
Trenton from
the Delaware
River and Rt.
129 that
severed
neighborhoods;
a scenario
that was
repeated in
essentially
every city to
accommodate
through-moving
surface
travel. They
should all go
underground.
There is much
good that
could be
done. The
challenge is
the above if.
@ t=6665 "when
disengaging
autoPilot with
the wheel, the
accelerator
stays on.
Please fix it!"
Maybe...
touching or
not touching
the steering
wheel has
little in
common with
acceleration
(and braking)
which is (are)
controlled by
the feet. The
steering
control should
be readily
overcome by
input of a
torque on the
steering
wheel;
however, the
steering
control should
revert to
dominance if
the driver
ceases to
exhort a
torque on the
wheel.
Moreover,
torquing the
steering wheel
should not
disengage the
brake or the
throttle.
With
respect to the
driver actions
on the brake
and throttle:
Driver
input from the
throttle
should have
precedence
over
"intelligent
cruise control
(ICC)" input
to the
throttle and
brake and
should NOT
turn off the
system simply
because the
driver touched
the
accelerator
pedal.
For
the brake, it
is a little
different.
Tapping the
brake should
turn off the
acceleration
function of
the ICC.
Acceleration
should remain
off until the
driver
explicitly
re-engages
it. Moreover,
driver input
to the brake,
if less than
what the ICC
calls for,
should always
be
dominated by
the ICC's
desire to
brake.
Tapping of the
brakes should
not turn off
the braking
function of
the ICC. That
intelligent
brakig
function
should
continue to
keep m fro
getting to
close to the
vehicle in
front of me.
The
acceleration
function has
been turned
off so I won't
accelerate
into the back
of the car
ahead of me
and the
braking
function
should
continue to do
its best to
keep a proper
separation
between me and
the vehicle
ahead.
Turning the
whole system
off placing me
completely in
control should
require an
explicit
action by me
that indicates
I'm knowingly
usurping
responsibility.
I
believe ICC
should be on
all the time.
Driver sets
the speed and
separation (or
it is done
automatically
relative to
the speed
limit, weather
conditions and
road
curvatures).
Driver can
choose to
override the
throttle and
override the
braking at any
time; however,
in the absence
of overrides,
the ICC is in
charge.
Alain
Reuters,
July 26,
"General
Motors Co
(GM.N) has
lost nearly $5
billion since
2018 trying to
build a
robotaxi
business in
San Francisco,
and now as the
automaker's
Cruise unit
starts
charging for
rides, the
losses are
accelerating.
GM said on
Tuesday it
lost $500
million on
Cruise during
the second
quarter - more
than $5
million a day
- as it began
charging for
rides in a
limited area
of San
Francisco. ... that may be the case for the last quarter, but
the chart
below from GM's 6/30/222 10-Q Shows ($800M) for the
last 6 months
or $4.38/day
when divided
by 182.625
Whew!😅...
Cruise's
costly effort
to transform
autonomous
driving
technology
from a
long-term
research
project to a
profit-spinning
business comes
as investors
are backing
away from
riskier bets
on technology,
and
reassessing
how soon robot
vehicles of
any kind will
be deployed in
large scale on
public roads.
Shares
of autonomous
vehicle
technology
company Aurora
Innovation Inc
(AUR.O), for
example, are
down 80% for
the year to
date. Shares
of
robo-trucking
company
TuSimple
Holdings Inc
(TSP.O) have
lost more than
70% of their
value. Some
automakers,
including Ford
Motor Co
(F.N), have
scaled back
investments in
automated
vehicle units,
or taken on
partners to
share the
costs....
Cruise's
losses for the
first six
months of the
year deepened
to $900
million from
$600 million
during the
same period in
2021 - when
Cruise was not
charging for
rides. Higher
compensation
costs to keep
staff on board
after putting
aside plans
for an IPO
were one
factor in the
results, GM
executives
said.
Chief
Executive Mary
Barra said on
Tuesday she is
still bullish
on Cruise, and
reaffirmed a
forecast that
the unit could
generate $50
billion a year
in revenue
from automated
vehicle
services and
technology by
2030. .” Read more Hmmmm... Nice optimism. The
source of the
reality check
above comes
from GM's 6/30/222 10-Q. Start reading from page
41. then on
page 43:
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="635" height="98" border="0">
Whoa! The only nice thing that can be imagined is by
assuming that
they've had
essentially
zero revenue,
the operating
costs have
"only" been
$800M for the
last 6
months. That
is non-small.
I'd like to suggest that the strategy of trying to
create a
profitable
driverless
mobility
service for
folks that
already have 2
or more cars
in their
garage, have
excellent
public transit
service or
travel on
expense
accounts when
wanting to go
to between the
airport and
"downtown" may
not be the
wisest way to
launch such a
mobility
service.
There is
little
opportunity to
be
substantially
better or even
equivalent to
what those
potential
customers
already have.
Little
opportunity to
get loyal and
repeat
customers.
The focus to
date has been
too heavily
weighted on
getting the
technology to
work for folks
who already
have more
mobility
options than
they know what
to do with. Great for click-bait;
challenging
for the 10-Q.
What must
Waymo's 10-Q
Cash Flow
chart look
like?
Capturing loyal and repeat customers is really tough
when the
competition is
excellent and
entrenched.
While pricing
can be high,
volume is
almost
non-existent
even with
nominal
pricing.
Except for the
novelty, the
marketplace in
the Chandlers
and SFs is
essentially
non-existent.
To date those
markets have
been quiet, at
best. What
must Waymo's
10-Q Cash Flow
chart look
like?
It astonishes me that to date none of the leading
driverless
companies have
spent any
money trying
to serve the
needs of folks
that don't own
cars, aren't
traveling
using someone
else's money,
nor have
access to a
good public
transit system
focused on
their mobility
needs.
These folks definitely can't pay as much for a ride
as those that
are being
chased by
Cruise &
Waymo, but
there are more
of them.
Moreover, its
almost trivial
to provide
them with a
mobility
option that is
substantially
better than
what they have
today for
many, if not
most, of their
daily
personTrips.
This is the market that we've found in New Jersey; in
Trenton &
Mercer County,
Perth Amboy
&
Middlesex
County and
Patterson
& Passaic
County. We
haven't even
begun looking
in Newark,
Camden,
Atlantic City
and the rest
of New Jersey.
The excuse seems to have been that it would be too
expensive to
deal with NJ's
bad weather,
even though,
we've made it
clear that New
jersey is not
interested in
a 365.25
days/yr.
mobility
solution.
We'd be more
than pleased
with a 350
days/yr.
operation.
New Jersey has
more than 350
good days a
year. We
aren't so
entitled that
we can't wait
for the
hurricane to
blow through,
the snow to be
shoveled or
the fog to
lift before we
go about our
normal
business. We
enjoy the
"snow day" at
home. We are
convinced that
is actually
easier and
cheaper to
capture
recurring and
loyal NJ
customers.
The rule-of-thumb for a
Trenton-MOVES
style
operation is:
a vehicle
needs to serve
at least 100
personTrips/day.
With slightly
better
ride-sharing
and
time-of-day
pricing, one
might be able
to get to 150
personTrips/day. To cover a fleet of 100 vehicles, ridership needs to
be about 10k
to 15k
personTrips/day.
This kind of
utilization
leads to per
personTrip
capitalization
costs of less
that
$1/personTrip
for vehicles
costing
upwards of
$150k @
interest rates
upward of
7.5%. That is
to say, $1/personTrip readily covers the
vehicle
capital costs
even at
moderate
scales.
Given that trips on-average
are less than
five miles,
vehicle
operating
costs are less
than
$1/personTrip.
Management costs are largely
fixed. With
volume the per
personTrip
burden
decrease
enormously,
and can't be
more than
$0.50/personTrip.
Break-even fare is thus
roughly
$2.50/personTrip.
An average market fare of
$3.50/personTrip
delivers a profit
of
>$1.00/personTrip,
>$100/vehicle-day.
A fleet of 100 vehicles delivers a profit >$10k/day,
>$3.0M/yr.
in the Trenton
ODD serving
10k personTrips/day.
From where do these 10k
personTrips/day materialize?
Essentially all the riders of NJ Transit rail would
love a simple
reliable
convenient way
to get to
& from the
train. By
on-demand
service within
the community
around the
train station,
loyalty
upwards of 80%
could be
achieved for
anyone wanting
to go to NYC
or within
walking
distance to
any other NJ
train
station. For
Trenton that
represents a
marketplace of
8,000
personTrips/day
that currently
drive to &
from the
station every
day and those
that currently
don't use the
train that
would if it
was easy and
reliable to
them to
get to AND
from the
station, when
they wanted to
get to and
from there.
Half of the
10k would
easily come
from serving
the Trenton
Train Station.
Trenton Central HS has 1,800 students. More than
1,500 live
more than a 10
minute walk to
the TCHS.
Truancy is
proportional
to how far a
student has to
walk to
school.
Trenton MOVES
could readily
serve 1,250 of
these students
every day.
That's 1/4 of
the needed
10k.
We only need another 2.5k personTrips and we haven't
even begun
dealing with
getting people
to & from
work in
Trenton,
doctors,
shopping
visiting
friends, etc.
needed by the
70% of Trenton
households who
have access to
one or zero
cars. 100
vehicles
serving 10k
personTrips/day
making
>3.0M/year
@ an average
fare of
$3.50/personTrip
is just the
start of a
profitable
business.
Employing 200
vehicles
costing at
most $100k at
interest rates
of less than
7.5% serving
150
personTrips/day
at fares of
$3.00/personTrip
makes way more
than $5M per
year.
Expanding Trenton MOVES throughout Mercer County
giving the
opportunity to
increase
average fare
(because of
the longer
personTrips)
to maybe
$5/personTrip
keeping
utilization @
150
personTrips/vehicle-day
of a fleet of
1,000 vehicles
and doing a
little better
on interest
rates and cap
costs can lead
to profits of
>$10M/year
for
Trenton/Mercer
MOVES. There
are at least
10
replications
of
Trenton/Mercer
MOVES that
could be done
in NJ by 2030
utilizing a
fleet of at
least 10,000
vehicles
leading to a
profit of
>$100M/year.
This kind of success leads to having many more people
leave their
cars at home
and
frequenting
NJ-MOVES as
their mobility
system. This
could lead to
a NJ-Moves
fleet of
>100,000
vehicles is
generating a
profit of
>$1B.
If Mary expects this to be achieved by 2030 and
replicated in
the 50 other
states (on
average) as
the Universe
she expects to
exist in 2030,
I'm hopeful
but
skeptical. My
point is, that
starting with
Trenton MOVES
as the big
bang that
achieved her
vision seems
to me to be a
lot clearer
that where
Cruise/Waymo
have chosen to
try to create
a Big Bang.
Seems as if
she and Kyle
should be
taking Trenton
and New Jersey
much more
seriously.
Please call
me! Alain
Reuters,
July 16,
"China's
search engine
giant Baidu
Inc on
Thursday
unveiled its
new autonomous
vehicle (AV)
with a
detachable
steering
wheel, with
plans to put
it to use for
its robotaxi
service in
China next
year.
Cost per unit
will drop to
250,000 yuan ($37,031.55)
for the new
model,
compared with
480,000 yuan
for the
previous
generation,
Baidu said in
a statement.
“This massive
cost reduction
will enable us
to deploy tens
of thousands
of AVs across
China,"
Baidu's chief
executive
Robin Li said
at the Baidu
World
conference.
"We are moving
towards a
future where
taking a
robotaxi will
be half the
cost of taking
a taxi today.” Read more Hmmmm... Really?? See video. Where do I buy 10 for immediate
delivery to
New Jersey
with option to
buy 100 more
by EoY'22 and
1st inline to
buy 1,000 more
by EoY'23. [log in to unmask]" moz-do-not-send="true">eMail me!!!
While the design is certainly not
ideal for
"Trenton
MOVES" or
"Perth Amboy
MOVES" they
would be good
enough to get
started with
addressing the
"Sociology
Challenges" of
MOVES-style
deployments.
And the price
is right if
this isn't
total
click-bait.
But... that is
a really big if . 🙁 Alain
Press
release, July
12,"May
Mobility, a
leader in the
development
and deployment
of autonomous
vehicle (AV)
technology,
today closed a
$111 million
Series C round
of funding.
Additionally,
the company
plans to
continue to
pursue its
deployment
programs using
the Toyota
Sienna
Autono-MaaS
vehicle
platform while
beginning
development on
another
vehicle design
centered
around
mobility,
Toyota’s
e-Palette,
signaling the
next potential
milestone as
it seeks new
ways to bring
equitable
mobility
solutions to
the
masses...."
Read more Hmmmm... Hopefully this
will enable
May Mobility
to take
seriously
Trenton MOVES
and other
MOVES-style
deployment
initiatives in
New Jersey and
beyond. Alain
D.Shepardson,
July 7, "The
National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration
has opened a
special
investigation
into a recent
crash of a
Cruise
self-driving
vehicle in
California
that resulted
in minor
injuries, the
agency said on
Thursday.
The auto
safety agency
did not
identify the
specific
crash, but a
Cruise vehicle
operating in
driverless
autonomous
mode was
involved in a
crash
involving
minor injuries
on June 3 in
San Francisco,
according to a
report filed with the California Department
of Motor
Vehicles. ...
"
Read more Hmmmm... The police report indicates that the Cruise vehicle
stopped while
making a
protected left
turn, yielding
to avoid being
T-boned by a
speeding Prius
that might run
its red.
Instead the
Prius changed
to its left
turn lane and
broadsided the
Cruise
vehicle. I
can't wait to
see the Cruise
360 video of
that crash.
Hopefully the
Prius'
insurance
company will
reimburse the
Federal
Government for
its expenses
incurred in
its special
investigation
of the crash
that it
caused. AlainTHE
DISPATCHER
June 24, M.
Sena "THE
DISPATCHER,
July 2022
IN THIS
ISSUE
Princeton
Fifth Annual
SmartDrivingCars
Summit
...........
Safe,
Equitable,
Affordable,
Sustainable,
High-quality
Mobility for
Everyone
.......................................................2
Dispatch
Central................................................................9
Someone lit a
fire under
NHTSA
.......................................9
The Economist:
Right
analysis,
wrong solution
..............12
Musings of a
Dispatcher:
Eyes on the
Back
Story...........15
The evolution
of digital
maps and ADAS
........................15
Digital Maps
for the
Vehicle –
1970-2022
......................24
...
"
Read more Hmmmm... Another great edition and very well written summary
of the 5th
Summit. Alain
June
15, Press
release,
"Today, as
part of the
U.S.
Department of
Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage
innovation,
the National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration
published the initial round of data it has
collected
through its Standing General Order issued last year and
initial
accompanying
reports
summarizing
this data.
The SAE Level
2 advanced
driver
assistance
systems
summary report
is available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5
automated
driving
systems
summary report
is available here. Going forward, NHTSA will
release data
updates
monthly..."
Read more Hmmmm... This is a good
start;
however, as
NHTSA repeats
many times,
this is just a
start and
there are many
"data
limitations".
The most
severe may
well be the
possibility of
substantial "sampling bias", the most severe of which is
that each OEM
sourced the
reported data
very
differently.
That makes the
data between
OEMs
incomparable.
Also un reported is any measure
that would
enable a
"crash rate"
for an OEM to
be
determined.
One only has a
numerator
value but no
denominator
value.
Finally, 392 crashes of "Level 2"
cars were
reported
during the
"10" month
period of July
2021 and May
15, 2022.
About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic
crashes
every year
among the 283
million
vehicles that
operate in the
US. Assuming
any one
vehicle is
unlikely to be
involved in
more than one
crash per yer,
it means that
each vehicle,
on average is
involved in
12M/283M =
0.0424 crashes
per year.
Thus, if these
ADAS cars were
involved in
crashes at the
average rate,
and had their
ADAS on all
the time, the
500 vehicle
crashes per
year contained
in these data
would expect
to be
generated from
a fleet of
only about
11,800
vehicles (or
0.0042% of the
vehicles
("everything
being equal",
ADAS on all
the time.).
Consequently, either, ...
- These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities,
and/or
- maybe some, but we're probably not much luckier.
- very few of the cars in use during that "10" month
period had
Level 2
capabilities,
and/or
- unfortunately, the VIN number doesn't identify these
cars and only
Tesla
announces how
many sold (I
may have
missed the
reportings)
- very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the
Level 2
features,
and/or
- likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of
its level 2
features but
does so only
in aggregate
terms that
don't allow
for correction
of sampling
bias
associated
with
engagement in
"easy" driving
conditions
versus
"challenging"
driving
conditions.
- enormous under counting
- likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either "know
all" or sample
effectively
because of
their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone
else has
conveniently
kept their
heads in the
sand. Mercedes
didn't report
any; however,
during that
period I think
my Intelligent
Cruise Control
and Lane
Centering were
engaged when I
hit a deer.
Mercedes must
not have been
watching me, I
didn't report
it and I
didn't get the
memo that
informed me to
do anything.
Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers
are not
startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents.
Maybe OtA
should be
mandated. At
minimum, the
VIN should
specify the
existence of
theses
capabilities.
Then normal
police
reportings can
begin to
"automatically"
access the "black box event recorders" (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA) that are in most cars today.
Unfortunately,
privacy concerns makes this not-easy. So
here we are.
It wont be
easy to do
much better,
but we should
continue to
try.
What the data do point out is that a substantial
number of the
crashes
involved the
rear ending of
a stationary
object. I
have pointed
out repeatedly
that the
source code of
these systems
explicitly
disregard
stationary
objects in the
lane ahead.
Justifying
this explicit
process is
that current
sensors incur
unacceptable
false
positives when
trying to
determine if
sufficient
headroom
exists under
detected
stationary
object in the
lane ahead.
Thus, to avoid
braking in
response to
these rare
false
positives,
stationary
objects in the
lane ahead are
all assumed to
be "pass
under-able".
As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects
in the lane
ahead. These
are readily
sensed and
precisely
located
ahead.
Readily sensed
are
overpasses,
signs, tree
canopies,
traffic
lights, ...
all of which
can usually be
readily passed
under. (As
can vehicles
ahead that
come to rest
in
vehicle-follower
mode. These
are not
disregarded
because one is
in
vehicle-follower
mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one
encounters a
stationary
object ahead,
I believe,
most, if not
all "Level 2"
systems
disregard that
object and
assume the car
can pass
underneath.
So if you are
in vehicle
leader mode
and come over
the crest of a
hill to be
confronted
with a stopped
object ahead,
your system
will disregard
that object.
Similarly, if
the vehicle
that you are
following
changes lanes
forcing you to
become a
leader, any
stationary
object ahead
will be
disregarded.
Alain
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
Summit Preview Tour
S. Still, June
3, "...
Heywood
Patterson, 67,
He often drove
members of his
church to
Tops, helping
them load
their
groceries into
his car and
then taking
them home.
"That's what
eh did all the
time," Deborah
Patterson
said. "That's
what the loved
to do". ..."
Watch Video Hmmmm... A principal
reason for
"Trenton
MOVES"-like
deployments is
to do what
Heywood
Patterson
"loved to do"
for the many.
Alain
M. Sena, May
24, "New Car
Assessment
Programs
(NCAPs) all
around the
world have
created a
separate and
unequal set of
standards for
vehicle safety
operating in
parallel with
the Type
Approval
processes in
most countries
and the U.S.
Federal Motor
Vehicle Safety
Standards and
their
equivalents in
other
countries. One
standard is
enough. In
this month’s
the lead
article, I
look at why
this has
happened, why
it is not a
good idea, and
what should be
done to
correct the
situation.
There is no
Musings in
this month’s
issue.
Instead, I
have put my
musings
energies to
work in
Dispatch
Central. You
can see the
topics below.
The section
ends with a
notable quote
from the CEO
of Stellantis
on the topic
of battery
electric
vehicles.
Enjoy your
June issue of
The
Dispatcher.
All comments
are welcome,
whether you
want to take
exception to
something I
have written
or you just
want to let me
know that you
got something
out of reading
it. ..."
Read more Hmmmm... Every month, great reading. Enjoy! AlainA.
Nathans, May
11, "When
Serena Ren
presented her
senior thesis
on using
machine
learning for
art appraisals
last month,
she hoped to
see her
friend, Joyce
Luo, present
her thesis on
fighting
opioid
addiction. But
since all
students in
the Department
of Operations
Research and
Financial
Engineering
present their
theses in
parallel
sessions, this
was
impossible.
But on May 4,
Ren and Luo
finally got to
see each
other’s
presentations
in a classroom
in Sherrerd
Hall, thanks
to the
department’s
first-ever
event in which
selected
students
present their
thesis work to
the whole
department....
" Read more Hmmmm... I'm so proud! Hopefully we'll be able to
release the
video so you
can enjoy.
Keep trying
the link:
PAVE,
May 4,
"Autonomous
vehicle
technologies
offer
incredible
potential:
they could
make our
highways
safer, they
could offer
new mobility
options for
people who
can’t drive,
and they could
help create a
more equitable
transportation
system for
those who are
not
well-served by
our current
system.
During the
month of May,
we are
highlighting
places where
AVs are in use
— today —
being
deployed,
tested, and
used for
public good.
We want to
look at
examples of
the technology
being used to
serve food
deserts, to
expand access
to rural
communities,
to offer new
accessibility
options, and
more.
We are
starting with
the Trenton
MOVES
initiative,
which is the
first
large-scale
urban transit
system in
America based
entirely on
self-driving
shuttles. The
shuttles,
which carry
four to eight
passengers,
serve
traditionally
underserved
Trenton
neighborhoods,
where 70% of
households
have limited
access to a
single
automobile, or
no access at
all. Our
panelists will
detail the
program,
describing how
it works, the
results it has
achieved, and
their vision
for the
future......"
Read more Hmmmm...
Very nice. Be
sure to watch video 😁 and see ZoomCast 267 Alain
P.
Keller, April
29, "New
Jersey
recently
announced a $5
million grant
for the
Trenton
Mobility &
Opportunity:
Vehicles
Equity System
or MOVES
Project. The
grant to the
City of
Trenton will
support the
planned start
up and
eventual
deployment of
100 Autonomous
Vehicles that
will provide
an on-demand
automated
transit system
to serve the
90,000
residents of
Trenton....."
Read more Hmmmm...
Very nice. 😁
AlainSaturday, April 23, 2022
April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry
He explains to
the audience
at #CoMotionMiami that:
H.
Jin, April 6,
"Electric
carmaker Tesla
(TSLA.O) will
make a
"dedicated"
self-driving
taxi that will
"look
futuristic,"
Chief
Executive Elon
Musk said on
Thursday,
without giving
a timeframe.
The
50-year-old
billionaire,
wearing a
black cowboy
hat and
sunglasses,
made the
comments at
the opening of
Tesla's $1.1
billion
factory in
Texas, which
is home to its
new
headquarters.
"Massive
scale.
Full
self-driving.
There's going
to be a
dedicated
robotaxi,"
Musk told a
large crowd at
the
factory...." Read more
Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin
focusing his
EVs on rich
Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma's
house and back and
were really
looking for a
neat toy.
Elon followed the graceful rollout
of his
Supercharger
infrastructure
which enabled
the
upper-middle
class that
doesn't have a
backup fleet
and needs to
have a toy and
reliably go
back and forth
to grandma's
house.
Viola!!! No
longer just a
toy. Seamless
evolution to "Massive Scale" scale
and Massive
Profitability.
RoboTaxis' evolution
to "Massive Scale" is
turning out to
be different.
Starting with
rich
WesternStaters
doesn't seem
to be working
sociologically
for Waymo.
The rides
offered seem
to be taken
for
entertainment
and side-show
purposes
rather than
valued
enablers of
enhanced
quality of
life. Nice
for selfies,
but not much
more.
Recall
fundamental
value is to
provide a
safe,
high-quality
ride from A to
B. "Safe" is "safe", but
"high-quality"
is relative to
what one now
has readily
available.
For the rich,
that's where
they've
already put a
lot of money
to create for
themselves
something
really nice.
The chances
someone is
going to offer
something
better to an
individual
that has
crafted
something
perfect for
themselves is
slim-to-none.
Consequently,
the service is
used primarily
for taking
selfies.
For those that don't have their
own car for
whatever
reason (can't
drive, don't
want to, too
young, too
old, and/or
too poor)
their mobility
options are
simply
dreadful.
Absolutely
trivial for an
aTaxi service
to be viewed
as the quality
winner and
used to
provide
customer
accessibility,
improved
quality of
life,
endearment,
respect, love,
appreciation,
loyalty, and
use.
Consequently, if Elon is really
serious about
achieving "Massive Scale" then he should basically flip
his Tesla
strategy and
start by
focusing on
serving the
mobility needs
of those that
will fully
appreciate and
gain the most
personal value
from his
market
offering;
- those that don't already have a
stable full of
their own
personal
mobility
options.
- those for which his aTaxi can
substantially
change their
lives for the
better.
These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's
90,000
population;
but 50,000
that will
really
appreciate
you. Start by
only serving
Trenton's 8
square mile
area with
about 100
vehicles and
only during
the best 350
days out of
the year's
365.25.
They'll be so appreciative and you
will have
provided the
spark that
will allow
your aTaxis
to go
viral! You'll
quickly serve
Mercer county,
Newark,
Camden,
Atlantic City,
New Brunswick,
Toms River,
Perth Amboy,
all of New
Jersey,
Eastern
Pennsylvania,
New York City
(except
Manhattan),
Long Island,
.....
That's the natural road to "Massive Scale" for Mobility for all. Start
with those in
most need and
evolve to
convert those
that will
leave their
own cars
parked in
their
driveway.
"Massive Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain
The Waymo
Team, March
30, "This
morning in San
Francisco, a
fully
autonomous
all-electric
Jaguar I-PACE,
with no human
driver behind
the wheel,
picked up a
Waymo engineer
to get their
morning coffee
and go to
work. Since
sharing that
we were ready
to take the
next step and
begin testing
fully
autonomous
operations in
the city,
we’ve begun
fully
autonomous
rides with our
San Francisco
employees.
They now join
the thousands
of Waymo One
riders we’ve
been serving
in Arizona,
making fully
autonomous
driving
technology
part of their
daily
lives...." Read more Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and
fundamental
expression of
confidence in
your
technology.
Please come to
New Jersey
where we are
certain that
you can
actually
delier "Safe,
Equitable,
Affordable,
Sustainable,
HIgh-quality
Mobility" that
will
substantially
improve the
quality-of-life
of many by
transforming
affordable
housing into
affordable
living and
more.
Let's look at the
back-of-the-envelope
numbers...
Trenton:
Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking):
300,000
IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10
miles
intraTrenton (100%tile) 5
miles
Operational Productivity:
VehicleTrips/Day: 50
Average Vehicle Occupancy
(AVO): 2
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100
PersonTrips/VehicleYear:
35,000
100 vehicle fleet
productivity:
10,000
PersonTrips/day
(1/15th market
penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet
requirements:
500 vehicles
(AVO =2.5) for
60
PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @
$200k/vehicle,
4 year life =
$200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
Electricity + maintenance +
management +
... =
$0.57/PersonTrip
Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking):
>30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from
NYC & PHL:
30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10
miles
Operational Productivity
VehicleTrips/Day: 60
Average Vehicle Occupancy
(AVO): 2.5
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150
PersonTrips/VehicleYear:
50,000
10% market penetration (3
Million
PersonTrips/Day:
Fleet
requirements:
20,000
vehicles (AVO
=2.5) for 60
PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @
$200k/vehicle,
4 year life =
200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
Electricity + maintenance +
management ...
= $0.57
Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue: (10% market penetration:
3M
personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market
pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip
(300,000*$2.00
=
$600,000/day;
$200M/year
90% @ $3.70/personTrip
(2.7M*3.70 =
$10M/day;
3.5B/year
(value
poposition
could hae the
average market
price even
higher than
$3.70/personTrip
(+$1.70 over
cost)
Profit: $1.70
*2.7M =
$4.6M/day =
$1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have
responded to
the NJ DoT
RfEI and
shouldn't be
completely
ignoring me.
I guess I'm
missing
something.
Maybe someone
else will call
me? 😎 Alain
K. Pyle,
Feb. 9, "Dr.
Alain
Kornhauser’s
vision of
bringing
equitable,
sustainable,
and affordable
mobility to
the people of
Trenton took
another step
forward with
the February
9th, 2022
announcement
(Facebook) of
a $5 million
NJDOT Local
Transportation
Planning Fund
Grant for the
Trenton
Mobility &
Opportunity:
Vehicles
Equity System
(MOVES)
Project (PDF).
The
significance
of this event
goes beyond
the grant
announcement..."
Read more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Feb. 11, "The
New Jersey DOT
is providing 5
million
dollars to get
Trenton MOVES
moving. The
goal..autonomous,
affordable,
safe mobility
for all.
This is a
video of the
event held on
February
9th."
Read more Hmmmm... Fantastic even with
challenging
audio. Turn
on Closed
Caption. The
substance is
in the quality
of the words
from the
Mayor,
Commissioner
and
Superintendent.
All from the
heart. Very
worth
absorbing.
Alain.
W.
Skaggs, Feb.
3,"We are
excited to
invite you to
join Mayor
Gusciora, N.J.
Department of
Transportation
(NJDOT)
Commissioner
Diane
Gutierrez-Scaccetti,
and Trenton
Public Schools
Superintendent
James Earle
to celebrate a
$5 million
award
from the NJDOT
Local
Transportation
Projects Fund
for an
unprecedented
public
transportation
project right
here in the
Capital City.
The project is
called the
Trenton
Mobility &
Opportunity:
Vehicular
Equity System
(MOVES)
initiative.
Originally announced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner
Gutierrez-Scaccetti
in December,
TrentonMOVES
seeks to
provide a
safe,
equitable, and
affordable
high-quality
on-demand
mobility
service to
Trenton
residents. The
effort is a
collaboration
between the
Governor’s
Office, NJDOT,
the City of
Trenton, and
Princeton
University.
The
$5 million
award is a
huge milestone
for the
project. This
will be the
first
large-scale
urban transit
system in
America to be
based entirely
on
self-driving
shuttles. Each
vehicle will
carry four to
eight
passengers at
a time. The
AVs will be
low-cost to
users in
underserved
neighborhoods.
The high
school will be
one of the
central
destinations
on the first
routes.
The
event will
take place at
11:00 a.m.
on
Wednesday,
Feb. 9, 2022
in the Trenton
Central High
School
auditorium.
Members of the
press will be
invited to
attend. ...."
Read more Hmmmm... Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed
February 25,
with 20
submittals.
Next comes the 5thPrinceton
SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton &
Trenton, NJ.
The Summit
will be
focused on
enabling
Trentonians to
get a first
glimpse at
technology and
mobility
systems that
can deliver
Trenton MOVES'
mobility
objectives
(Safety,
Equity,
Affordability,
Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and
mobility
companies to
learn the
market
opportunities
available to
be captured in
Trenton, the
rest of Mercer
County, and
throughout New
Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win
opportunity
for the
citizens of
New Jersey
(The Public)
and the
shareholders
of mobility provider(s) (The
Private), who
can come
together in a
Trenton MOVES
Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request
for Proposal
(RfP) process
commencing
shortly after
the close of
the Summit.
😁 Alain
