June 15, Press release, "Today, as part of the U.S. Department
of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and
encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration published
the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing
General Order issued last year and initial accompanying
reports summarizing this data.
The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary
report is
available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving
systems summary report is
available here. Going forward, NHTSA will release data
updates monthly..." Read
more Hmmmm... This is a good start;
however, as NHTSA repeats many times, this is just a
start and there are many "data limitations". The most
severe may well be the possibility of substantial "sampling
bias", the most severe of which is that each OEM
sourced the reported data very differently. That makes
the data between OEMs incomparable.
Also un reported is any measure that would enable a "crash rate" for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.
Finally, 392 crashes
of "Level 2" cars were reported during the "10" month
period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12
million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes
every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate
in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be
involved in more than one crash per yer, it means that
each vehicle, on average is involved in 12M/283M =
0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were
involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their
ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year
contained in these data would expect to be generated
from a fleet of only about 11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042%
of the vehicles ("everything being equal", ADAS on all
the time.).
Consequently,
either, ...
Anyway. It is a start and at least to
me the numbers are not startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of
the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum,
the VIN should specify the existence of theses
capabilities. Then normal police reportings can begin to
"automatically" access the "black
box event recorders" (see also Accident
data recorder and NHTSA)
that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy
concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It
wont be easy to do much better, but we should continue to
try.
What the data do point out is that a
substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending
of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that
the source code of these systems explicitly disregard
stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this
explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable
false positives when trying to determine if sufficient
headroom exists under detected stationary object in the lane
ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare
false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are
all assumed to be "pass under-able".
As one drives, one encounters many
stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily
sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are
overpasses, signs, tree canopies, traffic lights, ... all
of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can
vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode.
These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower
mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode
and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe,
most, if not all "Level 2" systems disregard that object and
assume the car can pass underneath. So if you are in
vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be
confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will
disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you
are following changes lanes forcing you to become a leader,
any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain
G. Laniewsky, June 17, "Plotting Each Crash on a
Map We created an interactive map that shows where each
accident happened and some relevant information. Tesla Autopilot
is colored in red, every other manufacturer is in blue. ..." Read more Hmmmm...
just the beginning of our look at the data. Alain
R. Mitchell, June 15, "... But far more detail and
context are required before regulators can say definitively
whether such systems can outperform human drivers, or one
another.
“The data may raise more questions than they answer,” NHTSA head
Steven Cliff told reporters...." Read more Hmmmm...
This is a beginning. While there is still a lot we
don't know, we know a lot more today than we knew before
the release. Alain
N. Boudette, June 15, "..." Read more Hmmmm... The article is fine, but the headline is a non-subtle and unfair dig at Tesla and the whole sector. True, the data set was restricted to Driver-Assist Systems and reported Crashes. Consequently, these two terms are "linked".
And hundreds were
involved, but the tabloid-styled wording of the headline
is insulting to the image of the "back in the
day" NY Times.
If the authors wished to provide a quantitative measure for the linkage, they should have put their measure in some perspective, like ... in the US there are roughly 12 million vehicles annually involved in road crashes. They could then have stated "... linked to 0.0042% of crashes" Just as accurate, much different inference by many. C'mon NY Times!!! Alain
R. Mitchell, June 2, ".Robotaxis are now a real
thing in California.
On Thursday, state officials green-flagged the launch of a
fare-based ride-hailing business featuring cars with no human
driver at the wheel.
Robot-operated Chevy Bolt EVs will be rolled out over the next
few weeks by autonomous vehicle maker Cruise. The San Francisco
company, owned by General Motors, wouldn’t say how many.
With a permit from the California Public Utilities Commission,
Cruise becomes the first commercial robotaxi business in the
state and the second in the U.S. The first was launched in 2020
by Alphabet-owned Waymo in Chandler, Ariz....." Read more Hmmmm...
Congratulations Kyle, Mo, Carter, ... Time now to come
do the same in Trenton. Thank you for actively
participating in the 5th
Summit.😁 Alain
A. Krok, June 16, "Will the ever-increasing glut of advanced
driver-assistance systems eventually claim supercars? Is there
even room for exotica in a world full of sensors and onboard
artificial intelligence? Ferrari sure seems to think there is.
Ferrari on Thursday unveiled its strategic plan for from now
until 2026. While it's mighty impressive that the Italian
automaker intends to unveil 15 new cars over the next several
years, including a hypercar and a battery-electric vehicle,
it's the mention of conditional autonomy that might be of
interest to some.
"Ferrari will limit the autonomy of its cars to Level 2/Level
2 Plus, in order to preserve all the extraordinary emotions
reserved for the driver," the company said in its press
release. Level 2 and Level 2 Plus include ADAS arrays that are
capable of controlling the car in certain conditions, but they
still require the driver's full attention. ... Read
more Hmmmm...
Not at all surprising. So will every other OEM
including "Yugo".
As I wrote many years ago and still believe.. No way
"the ultimate driving machine", becomes "the
ultimate riding machine"
. Alain
These
editions are
sponsored by
the SmartETFs
Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information
head to www.motoetf.com
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="137" height="17" border="0"> https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provides technical support
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
**************************`
A.
Nathans, May
11, "When
Serena Ren
presented her
senior thesis
on using
machine
learning for
art appraisals
last month,
she hoped to
see her
friend, Joyce
Luo, present
her thesis on
fighting
opioid
addiction. But
since all
students in
the Department
of Operations
Research and
Financial
Engineering
present their
theses in
parallel
sessions, this
was
impossible.
But on May 4,
Ren and Luo
finally got to
see each
other’s
presentations
in a classroom
in Sherrerd
Hall, thanks
to the
department’s
first-ever
event in which
selected
students
present their
thesis work to
the whole
department....
" Read
more
Hmmmm... I'm so proud! Hopefully we'll be able to
release the
video so you
can enjoy.
Keep trying
the link:
PAVE,
May 4,
"Autonomous
vehicle
technologies
offer
incredible
potential:
they could
make our
highways
safer, they
could offer
new mobility
options for
people who
can’t drive,
and they could
help create a
more equitable
transportation
system for
those who are
not
well-served by
our current
system.
During the
month of May,
we are
highlighting
places where
AVs are in use
— today —
being
deployed,
tested, and
used for
public good.
We want to
look at
examples of
the technology
being used to
serve food
deserts, to
expand access
to rural
communities,
to offer new
accessibility
options, and
more.
We are
starting with
the Trenton
MOVES
initiative,
which is the
first
large-scale
urban transit
system in
America based
entirely on
self-driving
shuttles. The
shuttles,
which carry
four to eight
passengers,
serve
traditionally
underserved
Trenton
neighborhoods,
where 70% of
households
have limited
access to a
single
automobile, or
no access at
all. Our
panelists will
detail the
program,
describing how
it works, the
results it has
achieved, and
their vision
for the
future......"
Read
more
Hmmmm...
Very nice. Be
sure to
watch video
😁 and see ZoomCast
267 Alain
P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....." Read more Hmmmm... Very nice. 😁 AlainSaturday, April 23, 2022
H.
Jin, April 6,
"Electric
carmaker Tesla
(TSLA.O) will
make a
"dedicated"
self-driving
taxi that will
"look
futuristic,"
Chief
Executive Elon
Musk said on
Thursday,
without giving
a timeframe.
The
50-year-old
billionaire,
wearing a
black cowboy
hat and
sunglasses,
made the
comments at
the opening of
Tesla's $1.1
billion
factory in
Texas, which
is home to its
new
headquarters.
"Massive
scale.
Full
self-driving.
There's going
to be a
dedicated
robotaxi,"
Musk told a
large crowd at
the
factory...." Read
more
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis' evolution
to "Massive
Scale" is
turning out to
be different.
Starting with
rich
WesternStaters
doesn't seem
to be working
sociologically
for Waymo.
The rides
offered seem
to be taken
for
entertainment
and side-show
purposes
rather than
valued
enablers of
enhanced
quality of
life. Nice
for selfies,
but not much
more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.
For those that don't have their
own car for
whatever
reason (can't
drive, don't
want to, too
young, too
old, and/or
too poor)
their mobility
options are
simply
dreadful.
Absolutely
trivial for an
aTaxi service
to be viewed
as the quality
winner and
used to
provide
customer
accessibility,
improved
quality of
life,
endearment,
respect, love,
appreciation,
loyalty, and
use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.
They'll be so appreciative and you
will have
provided the
spark that
will allow
your aTaxis
to go
viral! You'll
quickly serve
Mercer county,
Newark,
Camden,
Atlantic City,
New Brunswick,
Toms River,
Perth Amboy,
all of New
Jersey,
Eastern
Pennsylvania,
New York City
(except
Manhattan),
Long Island,
.....
That's the natural road to "Massive Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
"Massive Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain
The Waymo
Team, March
30, "This
morning in San
Francisco, a
fully
autonomous
all-electric
Jaguar I-PACE,
with no human
driver behind
the wheel,
picked up a
Waymo engineer
to get their
morning coffee
and go to
work. Since
sharing that
we were ready
to take the
next step and
begin testing
fully
autonomous
operations in
the city,
we’ve begun
fully
autonomous
rides with our
San Francisco
employees.
They now join
the thousands
of Waymo One
riders we’ve
been serving
in Arizona,
making fully
autonomous
driving
technology
part of their
daily
lives...." Read
more
Hmmmm... Congratulations!
Enormous
accomplishment
and
fundamental
expression of
confidence in
your
technology.
Please come to
New Jersey
where we are
certain that
you can
actually
delier "Safe,
Equitable,
Affordable,
Sustainable,
HIgh-quality
Mobility" that
will
substantially
improve the
quality-of-life
of many by
transforming
affordable
housing into
affordable
living and
more.
K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originally announced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The
event will
take place at
11:00 a.m.
on
Wednesday,
Feb. 9, 2022
in the Trenton
Central High
School
auditorium.
Members of the
press will be
invited to
attend. ...."
Read
more Hmmmm...
Another real
milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed
February 25,
with 20
submittals.
Next comes the
5thPrinceton
SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton &
Trenton, NJ.
The Summit
will be
focused on
enabling
Trentonians to
get a first
glimpse at
technology and
mobility
systems that
can deliver
Trenton MOVES'
mobility
objectives
(Safety,
Equity,
Affordability,
Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and
mobility
companies to
learn the
market
opportunities
available to
be captured in
Trenton, the
rest of Mercer
County, and
throughout New
Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. 😁 Alain
229 Sherrerd Hall Princeton University Princeton, NJ [log in to unmask] 609-980-1427 (c) |
|