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Saturday June 11, 2022

SmartDrivingCar.com/10.22-NHTSA_ADAS_Data-061822
22nd edition of the 10th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="86" height="22">  NHTSA Releases Initial Data on Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies

June 15, Press release, "Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing General Order issued last year and initial accompanying reports summarizing this data.

The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary report is available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems summary report is available here. Going forward, NHTSA will release data updates monthly..."   Read more Hmmmm... This is a good start; however, as NHTSA repeats many times, this is just a start and there are many "data limitations". The most severe may well be the possibility of substantial "sampling bias", the most severe of which is that each OEM sourced the reported data very differently.  That makes the data between OEMs incomparable.

Also un reported is any measure that would enable a "crash rate" for an OEM to be determined.  One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.

Finally, 392 crashes of "Level 2" cars were reported during the "10" month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022.  About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US.  Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per yer, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved in 12M/283M =  0.0424 crashes per year.  Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about 11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles ("everything being equal", ADAS on all the time.). 

Consequently, either, ...

Anyway.  It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.

What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents.  Maybe OtA should be mandated.  At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of theses capabilities.  Then normal police reportings can begin to "automatically" access the "black box event recorders" (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA) that are in most cars today.  Unfortunately, privacy concerns makes this not-easy.  So here we are.  It wont be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try. 

What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending of a stationary object.  I have pointed out repeatedly that the source code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors  incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object in the lane ahead.  Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be "pass under-able". 

As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead.  These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead.  Readily sensed are overpasses, signs, tree canopies, traffic lights, ...  all of which can usually be readily passed under.  (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode.  These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)

But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all "Level 2" systems disregard that object and assume the car can pass underneath.  So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object.  Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded.    Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" width="127" height="71"> SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 272/ PodCast 272 Ed Niedermeyer 

F. Fishkin, June 16, "With NHTSA releasing the data on 392 crashes involving driver assistance systems, we dive into the significance and take-aways with guest Ed #Niedermeyer, author, journalist and co-host of the #Autonocast.   Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 272 of Smart Driving Cars."

Technical support provided by: [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="137" height="17" border="0"> https://www.cartsmobility.com/

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="137" height="17" border="0">Taking a Closer Look at the NHTSA ADAS Crash Data

G. Laniewsky, June 17, "Plotting Each Crash on a Map  We created an interactive map that shows where each accident happened and some relevant information. Tesla Autopilot is colored in red, every other manufacturer is in blue. ..." Read more Hmmmm... just the beginning of our look at the data.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="156" height="24">  Most driver-assist crashes involved Teslas, new data show. But questions abound

R. Mitchell, June 15, "... But far more detail and context are required before regulators can say definitively whether such systems can outperform human drivers, or one another.

“The data may raise more questions than they answer,” NHTSA head Steven Cliff told reporters...."  Read more Hmmmm... This is a beginning.  While there is still a lot we don't know, we know a lot more today than we knew before the release.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Self-driving cars crash, too, but figuring out what it means requires much better data

A. Hawkins, June 16, "This week, for the first time ever, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released data on crashes involving cars equipped with advanced driver-assist systems and automated driving technology. A lot of headlines — including The Verge’s — focused on the number of Tesla vehicles that crashed, which is understandable because Tesla had a lot of crashes.

But the numbers themselves don’t tell us the whole story. In fact, they don’t really tell us much of any story at all. Not yet..." Read more Hmmmm... Yup.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  US releases new driver-assist crash data, and surprise, it’s mostly Tesla

A. Hawkins, June 15, ".The federal government released two new reports highlighting — for the first time — crashes and fatalities involving autonomous vehicles (AV) and vehicles equipped with advanced driver-assist systems (ADAS). Tesla reported the most crashes involving driver-assist technology, while Alphabet’s Waymo disclosed the most incidents involving its autonomous vehicles.

Car and tech companies insist these technologies save lives, but more people died in auto crashes last year than in the last three decades. More data is needed to accurately determine whether these new systems are making roads safer or simply making driving more convenient.." Read more Hmmmm... Yup.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  Tesla Autopilot and Other Driver-Assist Systems Linked to Hundreds of Crashes

N. Boudette, June 15, "..." Read more  Hmmmm... The article is fine, but the headline is a non-subtle and unfair dig at Tesla and the whole sector.  True, the data set was restricted to Driver-Assist Systems and reported Crashes.  Consequently, these two terms are "linked".

And hundreds were involved, but the tabloid-styled wording of the headline is insulting to the image of the "back in the day" NY Times. 

If the authors wished to provide a quantitative measure for the linkage, they should have put their measure in some perspective, like ... in the US there are roughly 12 million vehicles annually involved in road crashes.  They could then have  stated  "...  linked to 0.0042% of crashes" Just as accurate, much different inference by many.   C'mon NY Times!!!  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="156" height="24">  California’s first commercial robotaxi is approved for the streets of San Francisco

R. Mitchell, June 2, ".Robotaxis are now a real thing in California.

On Thursday, state officials green-flagged the launch of a fare-based ride-hailing business featuring cars with no human driver at the wheel.

Robot-operated Chevy Bolt EVs will be rolled out over the next few weeks by autonomous vehicle maker Cruise. The San Francisco company, owned by General Motors, wouldn’t say how many.

With a permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, Cruise becomes the first commercial robotaxi business in the state and the second in the U.S. The first was launched in 2020 by Alphabet-owned Waymo in Chandler, Ariz....."  Read more Hmmmm... Congratulations Kyle, Mo, Carter, ... Time now to come do the same in Trenton. Thank you for actively participating in the 5th Summit.😁  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="">  Ferrari Will Stick With Level 2 Autonomy to Preserve the Driving Experience

A. Krok, June 16, "Will the ever-increasing glut of advanced driver-assistance systems eventually claim supercars? Is there even room for exotica in a world full of sensors and onboard artificial intelligence? Ferrari sure seems to think there is.

Ferrari on Thursday unveiled its strategic plan for from now until 2026. While it's mighty impressive that the Italian automaker intends to unveil 15 new cars over the next several years, including a hypercar and a battery-electric vehicle, it's the mention of conditional autonomy that might be of interest to some.

"Ferrari will limit the autonomy of its cars to Level 2/Level 2 Plus, in order to preserve all the extraordinary emotions reserved for the driver," the company said in its press release. Level 2 and Level 2 Plus include ADAS arrays that are capable of controlling the car in certain conditions, but they still require the driver's full attention. ... Read more  Hmmmm... Not at all surprising.  So will every other OEM including "Yugo".  As I wrote many years ago and still believe.. No way "the ultimate driving machine", becomes "the ultimate riding machine" . Alain


Calendar of Upcoming Events
 
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Garden Grove, CA
July 18-21, 2022


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These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com 

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="137" height="17" border="0"> https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provides technical support

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 271/ PodCast 271 Summary of 5th Summit, Alain Kornhauser & Jerry He

F. Fishkin, June 8, "From the people living in Trenton's Donnelly Homes, to Trenton Central High, to Princeton University, there were lessons to be learned at the 5th annual Smart Driving Cars Summit. CARTS Mobility executive director Jerry He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin to discuss the progress. (video by www.DanielProductions.tv)."  Watch Video  Hmmmm...Outstanding

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 269/ PodCast 269  Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, May 26,  "Smart Driving Cars (episode 269) Did government car ratings take a wrong turn? The star rating system for new cars doesn't offer the protections it should. That's the view of consultant and "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 269 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus... another self driving promise from Elon Musk, the Smart Driving Cars Summit and more.."

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 268/ PodCast 268  Bob Kacergis, CCO, Momentum Dynamics

F. Fishkin, May 15, Wireless electric vehicle charging can make autonomous mobility services more affordable for all.   How?   Momentum Dynamics Chief Commercial Officer Bob Kacergis explains on episode 268 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.   Plus..Oshkosh, Torc Robotics, Trenton Moves and more."

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 267/ PodCast 267 

F. Fishkin, May 7, "The Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is less than a month away, focused on making mobility for all a reality through Trenton Moves.  Plus Tesla says Autopilot is achieving big results in improving vehicle safety.   Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more in episode 267 of Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 266/ PodCast 266 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, April 28, "Germany has given the green light for no hands on the wheel mobility.  What does it mean?  The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for that...plus Waymo, Tesla, Ford, Argo and more."

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast Episode 265/ PodCast 265 w/Jim Nicholas, CEO, Uniphy

F. Fishkin, April 23, "Designing the robotaxi rider experience. Uniphy CEO Jim Nicholas is forging partnerships to help transform consumer experiences with vehicles and more.   He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that...plus the latest on Tesla, Trenton and more.  "

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 264/ PodCast 264

F. Fishkin, April 15, "Smart Driving Cars episode 264: Massive Robotaxi Move by #Musk and #Tesla?     Elon Musk is saying Tesla will make a massive move into robotaxis.  And what about his attempt to buy Twitter?    Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin weigh in on that...plus Argo AI coming to Greenville, South Carolina and Cruise expands Walmart deliveries in Arizona.   That and more on episode 264 of Smart Driving Cars.   Tune in and subscribe..

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 263/ PodCast 263 w/ Henry Posner III'77 Ferroequinalogist

F. Fishkin, April 7, "Mobility takes on a different meaning for Ukrainian refugees.  Henry Posner II and his Railroad Development Corporation has been helping to transport many into Germany.   He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 263 of Smart Driving Cars.  That plus GM Cruise, Aurora, VW, Qualcomm & more."

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 262/ PodCast 262 w/ Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, March 30, The latest from the Symposium on the Future Networked Car,  the UK investigates laws for driverless cars, cars....politics and Russia, Tesla and some big news from Waymo.   The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for Smart Driving Cars episode 262."

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 261/ PodCast 261 w/ Sven Beiker & Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, March 25, "Where autonomous mobility vehicles operate matters.  But why does too.  And Mercedes takes a leap.    That and more as Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Dick Mudge of Compass Transportation join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 261 of Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 260/ PodCast 260

F. Fishkin, March 21, "Apple reportedly has dissolved its car team and why is Alain now eating at McDonald's?  Episode 260 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin has that plus GM, Cruise, Tesla, Aurora, Polestar and more."-

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 259/ PodCast 259 w/ Mo ElShenawy, EVP of Engineering, Cruise

F. Fishkin, March 9, "Cruise, with GM and Honda as operating partners, has gone truly driverless in San Francisco and is seeking permission to eliminate steering wheels in the Cruise Origin.  EVP of Engineering Mo ElShenawy joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for a special edition of Smart Driving Cars.

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 258/ PodCast 258 w/ Michael Sena, Publisher, The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, March 3, "How will electric vehicle charging stations make money?  The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena poses that question and many more on episode 258 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.  Plus Ford creates a distinct EV car business, an update on NJ progress and more.   Tune in and subscribe...."

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 257/ PodCast 257 w/ Ciff Winston, Brookings Institute  & Marc Scribner,  Reason Foundation

F. Fishkin, Feb. 25, "So what about these reports and opinion pieces casting doubt on the future of autonomous mobility?  The Brookings Institution's Cliff Winston and Reason Foundation's Marc Scribner join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to slice and dice.  Plus GM Cruise, VW and more.."

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 256 / PodCast 256  w/ Danny Shapiro, VP Automotive, NVIDIA

F. Fishkin, Feb. 18, " With Jaguar Land Rover signing on to partner with NVIDIA for advanced driver assistance and autonomous capabilities in all of their vehicles starting in 2025,  what will the collaboration mean?   NVIDIA's VP for Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Waymo, VW, Trenton and more."

SmartDrivingCars  ZoomCast Episode 255 / PodCast 255  w/Brad Templeton

F. Fishkin, Feb. 11, " The engaging debate over disengagements. In episode 255 of Smart Driving Cars, Forbes.com Sr. Transportation Contributor Brad Templeton engages with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser over the path to the future of autonomous mobility.   The latest data on disengagements from companies testing self driving vehicles in California,  Tesla, Cruise, Waymo and New Jersey begins funding Trenton MOVES...are part of the spirited discussion with co-host Fred Fishkin."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 254, Zoom-Cast Episode 254 w/Alex Roy

F. Fishkin,Feb 4, "Why Self Driving Isn't a Race, It's a Game.  That's what Alex Roy, Director of Special Projects at Argo AI writes at www.groundtruthautonomy.com.Alex joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars for a wide ranging discussion on that plus the latest on Trenton Moves, FreightWaves, Tesla,  Waymo, Cruise, Toyota and more ."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 253, Zoom-Cast Episode 253 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Jan. 27, "The Federal Trade Commission looks to level the tech playing field...but "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena has some words of warning.   He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo and more on Episode 253 of Smart Driving Cars.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 252, Zoom-Cast Episode 252 /Michael Krauss, Prof. of Law Emeritus & Alexandra Mueller, IIHS

F. Fishkin, Jan. 20, " The IIHS has announced it will rate vehicle partial automation systems.   Spearheading is research scientist Alexandra Mueller who joins us. And Professor Emeritus Michael Krauss from the George Mason University School of Law on the manslaughter charges leveled in a Tesla autopilot case in California.   Episode 252 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. "

SmartDrivingCars  Zoom-Cast Episode 251 /A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen:  Trenton MOVES... a Framework for...

F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, " In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and his presentation: Making it Happen: Trenton Moves-a framework for the deployment of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high quality transportation.      The focus is on providing autonomous mobility in a place where there is real need.  A first.   Join the effort."
Link to 250 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Recent Highlights of:

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Saturday June 11, 2022

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The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit

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Summit Preview Tour

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  Dr. Steve Still's Tribute to Heywood Patterson

S. Still, June 3, "... Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. "That's what eh did all the time," Deborah Patterson said. "That's what the loved to do".  ..." Watch Video Hmmmm... A principal reason for "Trenton MOVES"-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson "loved to do" for the many.  Alain

Saturday May 28, 2022

The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles

M. Sena, May 24, "New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation. 

There is no Musings in this month’s issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.

Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. ..." Read more Hmmmm...  Every month, great reading.  Enjoy!  Alain

Sunday May 15, 2022

  From pricing carbon to fighting opioid abuse, ORFE showcased top senior projects

A. Nathans, May 11, "When Serena Ren presented her senior thesis on using machine learning for art appraisals last month, she hoped to see her friend, Joyce Luo, present her thesis on fighting opioid addiction. But since all students in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering present their theses in parallel sessions, this was impossible.

But on May 4, Ren and Luo finally got to see each other’s presentations in a classroom in Sherrerd Hall, thanks to the department’s first-ever event in which selected students present their thesis work to the whole department.... "  Read more  Hmmmm...  I'm so proud!  Hopefully we'll be able to release the video so you can enjoy. Keep trying the link:

  Princeton ORFE Class of 2022 Senior Thesis Symposium "Best 8"

Saturday May 7, 2022

  PAVE VIRTUAL PANEL “AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES”

PAVE, May 4, "Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can’t drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system.

During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for public good. We want to look at examples of the technology being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural communities, to offer new accessibility options, and more.

We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is the first large-scale urban transit system in America based entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved Trenton neighborhoods, where 70% of households have limited access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our panelists will detail the program, describing how it works, the results it has achieved, and their vision for the future......"  Read more  Hmmmm...   Very nice.  Be sure to watch video 😁 and see ZoomCast 267 Alain

Friday, April 30, 2022

  NJDOT Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program

P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....."  Read more  Hmmmm...   Very nice.  😁 AlainSaturday, April 23, 2022

  Knight Foundation 

April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:

Hmmmm...   Yup!  See ZoomCast265 Alain

Thursday, April 15, 2022

  Musk promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla

H. Jin, April 6, "Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a "dedicated" self-driving taxi that will "look futuristic," Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.

The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.

"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the factory...."
Read more 

Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma's house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.

Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house.  Viola!!! No longer just a toy.  Seamless evolution to "Massive Scalescale and Massive Profitability. 

RoboTaxis' evolution to "Massive Scaleis turning out to be different.  Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn't seem to be working sociologically for Waymo.  The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life.  Nice for selfies, but not much more.

Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B.  "Safe" is "safe",  but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available.  For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice.  The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none.  Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies. 

For those that don't have their own car for whatever reason  (can't drive, don't want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful.  Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use. 

Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;

  • those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.  
  • those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better. 

These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you.  Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.  

They'll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral!  You'll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, ..... 

That's the natural road to "Massive Scale" for Mobility for all.   Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.  

"Massive Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES Alain

Thursday, March 31, 2022

  Taking our next step in the City by the Bay

The Waymo Team, March 30, "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we’ve been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives...."  Read more  Hmmmm... Congratulations!  Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology.  Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually delier "Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, HIgh-quality Mobility" that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.

Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...
Trenton:
Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000
    IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
    intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity:
    VehicleTrips/Day: 50
    Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2
    PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100
    PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
    100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
    50% market penetration Fleet requirements:  500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay). 
Cost:
    Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
    Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip
    Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
 
New Jersey:   
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
    IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
Operational Productivity
    VehicleTrips/Day: 60
    Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5
    PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150
    PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
    10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements:  20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay). 
Cost:
    Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
    Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57
    Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue:  (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
    10% @ cost + 90% market pricing: 
        10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000*$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year
        90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M*3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could hae the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)

Profit:  $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
       
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me.  I guess I'm missing something.  Maybe someone else will call me? 😎  Alain

  Moving Forward with Trenton MOVES

K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..."  Read more  Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words.  Alain

    Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving 

Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving.  The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all.   This is a video of the event held on February 9th."  Read more  Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio.  Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent.  All from the heart. Very worth absorbing.  Alain.

Friday, February 4, 2022

SmartDrivingCar.com/10.05-Invitation-020422

   Trenton MOVES

W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.

Originally announced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.

The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.

The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022 in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ...." Read more  Hmmmm... Another real milestone.  

The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals.  Next comes the 5thPrinceton  SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ.  The Summit will be  focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES' mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey. 

Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit.  😁  Alain


Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
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609-980-1427 (c)



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