2022 upland game bird forecast

Destination: NORTHWEST MONTANA

Pheasant hunting on the Ninepipe Wildlife Management Area near Ronan and surrounding area could be challenging this year. Despite good grain production and some opportunistic moisture in the spring, brood survival appears to be relatively poor. 

Mountain grouse: dusky, ruffed and Franklin’s. Bird numbers should be similar to last year. Much of Northwest Montana experienced a cool, wet spring which can negatively affect brood survival. Despite the spring conditions, overall numbers should be similar to last year and hunting should be good for all three species of mountain grouse.

 

Destination: WESTERN MONTANA

Upland game bird numbers in Region 2 are generally looking pretty good for the 2022 fall season. Another mild winter allowed for high winter survival of forest grouse and wild turkeys. Many dusky and ruffed grouse were detected during the spring breeding season. Timely moisture in the spring and early summer has provided quality habitat across the region. Grasses and forbs have grown high, which provide good cover and abundant insect forage for broods to eat. This has led to large brood sizes for all forest grouse and wild turkeys. This fall, FWP wants to be sure that bird hunters are aware that thanks to recent efforts to restore native sharp-tailed grouse to western Montana, it is possible you could encounter a sharp-tail grouse in western Montana and hunting is closed for this species west of the Continental Divide. Be extra careful when identifying birds.

 

Destination: SOUTHWEST MONTANA

Mountain and sage-grouse productivity should be decent this year since much of southwest Montana experienced cool, wet weather in June that produced good vegetation and insects but was not cold and snowy to the detriment of hatchlings as in the past three years. There will be wing barrels out in several locations throughout southwest Montana. Hunters are asked to deposit only one wing from each bird harvested into one of these barrels or with the Butte, Sheridan or Dillon wildlife biologists’ offices. Wings will be used to determine the age and sex of grouse to determine productivity for the year.

A 15-percent increase in sage-grouse population trends were observed in the Sheridan area this spring. This was the first time a year-over-year increase was seen for sage-grouse here in five years. Given the population trends and good vegetative production and cover, there’s a good chance the nest success of upland birds will be good this year, especially compared to the previous three or four years.

FWP biologists will be collecting wings from hunter-harvested sage-grouse, mountain grouse and gray partridge, also known as Hungarian partridge, in several areas of southwest Montana. Biologists will use these wings to identify birds by species and age class — juvenile or adult. This helps biologists monitor juvenile recruitment among game bird populations. Wing collection barrels are blue and will be in various locations during the sage-grouse hunting season, from Sept. 1 to 30. Hunters who come upon a wing collection barrel while traveling from a hunt are asked to put only one wing from each harvested bird into the barrel. Wings can also be turned into area wildlife biologists or game wardens.

 

Destination: NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

Upland game bird populations are highly dependent upon weather, and the past year has provided both good and bad weather conditions for pheasants, sharp-tailed grouse and Hungarian partridge in Region 4.

Based on spring lek surveys for sharp-tailed grouse and crow count surveys for pheasants, recruitment varied from poor to good depending on location. Overall, upland bird numbers are trending higher than 2021 but still remain below the long-term average across the region as populations are still recovering from the harsh winter of 2017/2018.

The past winter provided temperatures near average, but variable amounts of precipitation. While drought conditions statewide have shown some improvement, some areas of Region 4 still remain in the highest category of drought found anywhere in Montana, and bird numbers in these areas reflect that fact and remain very low.

Based on weather station data, spring temperatures tended to be below average, precipitation was near or slightly below average, and nesting habitat considered fair to good. Temperatures in June were near average with below-average precipitation, but in July and August, the summer turned hot and dry. Although there are areas where grass and vegetation still remain green and grasshoppers are abundant, the continued drought conditions are expected to cause habitat quality to decline further over the remaining weeks of summer. 

Taking weather and habitat conditions into consideration, overall hunting success for upland birds is predicted to be below average, although still very dependent on hunter effort. Since habitat conditions in the area are quite variable, the key to a successful season for hunters will be finding the areas where the habitat is in the best condition and focusing their hunting efforts there.

When choosing a place to hunt, hunters should first consider their target species. Sharp-tailed grouse will be found in grasslands intermixed with farmland and foothills, where they tend to roost on the tops of hills and draws with grass and forb cover averaging shin height. On windy days, sharptails will generally stay on the leeward side of a hill, out of the wind.

Pheasants will generally be found closer to riparian areas and grain sources. Finding areas with grass higher than your shin, mixed with shrubs and small draws and near a food source (farmland/shrub berries) is a good place to start.

Gray partridge (also known as Hungarian partridge) thrive in all of the above habitat types but their populations are more susceptible to extreme weather. In general, large patches of grass and CRP and draws or fields with shrubby cover near farmland are good areas to start looking for gray partridge and other upland birds on the prairie.

Blue grouse, ruffed grouse and spruce grouse. Of the three, blue and ruffed grouse make up the majority of the mountain grouse population. There is habitat overlap with all three species but in general ruffed grouse tend to occupy riparian areas in the lower elevations of the mountains that also have a mixture of shrubs, aspens and conifers. Blue and spruce grouse tend to occupy areas with a combination of old and new growth conifers with low-lying berries in the higher elevations. Forest grouse populations are considered to be stable in the region.

 

Destination: SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

Sage-grouse counts this spring showed numbers to be at a 10-year low. Anticipate poor sage-grouse hunting.

Sharptail numbers are likely to be similar to last year.

Gray partridge and chukar populations will also likely be similar to last year or maybe a little higher as a result of good spring moisture.

Mountain grouse numbers might be up a bit this year as a result of favorable spring moisture.

To date, the turkey broods that have been documented are small, so a rebound from last year’s lower populations appears unlikely.

 

Destination: NORTHEAST MONTANA

Habitat conditions, spring adult populations and recent brood observations start out slightly above average in the eastern third of the region but decline to the west.

The western portion of the region remains in severe drought conditions for the second year in a row. This has negatively impacted vegetation throughout the season and has likely led to a decrease in nest and brood success of all species. The center of the region, Phillips and Valley counties, saw marginally improved conditions this hatching season and were briefly out of drought status in July. Bird populations in this area of the region are expected to be slightly below average. The eastern portions of the region all received better precipitation this year and habitat conditions steadily improved from early May through July. As a result, bird populations are expected to be stable in this area and similar to last year, around average or slightly above average.

A grasshopper outbreak has infested much of the region for the second year in a row. While precipitation has improved vegetation conditions in the eastern two-thirds of the region, grasshopper damage has impacted the quality of the cover again in many areas. However, these grasshoppers also provide a valuable food source for game bird chicks, so the overall impact to upland bird populations depends on the local area. From check station and wing barrel data, we observe that juveniles (birds hatched that year) typically comprise most of the birds harvested (60 to 80 percent depending on the species). Where drought conditions have persisted in the region, hunters will likely find lower juvenile numbers on the landscape and will have to cover more ground and seek out “good” habitat conditions to be successful.

Spring “crowing” surveys that measure the rooster pheasant populations in the eastern third of the region showed populations around average or slightly above average, with populations in the western third of the region well below average. The center of the region falls in between these two, with pheasant populations starting the year slightly below average. 

Brood success will be low in areas hardest hit by the drought and improve eastward.  The areas that received good moisture throughout the early brood-rearing season in late June into July will have the greatest brood success and best pheasant numbers this fall.

In Region 6, gray partridge (also known as Hungarian partridge) populations are not monitored through any structured surveys, but harvest estimates show their populations do track with the other bird species in the region to some degree. Partridge harvest in 2021 was above average in the eastern portions of the region but 60 percent of average in the western portions of the region, which was still a significant improvement over the previous five years. Overall, partridge numbers this fall are likely to remain average to above average for the eastern half of the region, and below average for the western half of the region. Gray partridge is almost always the least numerous of our game birds in the region, and as a result, are unevenly distributed on the landscape. Even where numbers are good, hunters may need to try many areas of suitable cover to find coveys. The effort to find suitable cover may increase substantially in the drought stricken western portions of the region this year.

Based on spring survey data, sage-grouse populations are in decent shape in Region 6. In the central and western portion of the region, where sage-grouse habitat exists, adult numbers were slightly above average in Valley County, but below average in all areas to the west. While sage grouse appear to tolerate drought conditions somewhat better than our other game birds, the continued dry conditions, especially in the far-western portions of the region, may impact sage grouse production this year. Conditions in the center of the region may be more favorable and sage grouse numbers are likely to be similar to last year this fall. Core sage-grouse habitat primarily exists south of Highway 2 and is composed of mixed grass and Wyoming big sagebrush rangeland. Drought has likely impacted brood success, especially in areas lacking riparian areas. Hunters should expect to find better numbers of sage-grouse in areas containing some riparian habitat.

Grouse hunters headed to Region 6 will likely encounter sharptail populations similar to the fall of 2021. Adult spring surveys ranged from above average in the eastern half of the region to below average in the western half of the region. Due to the drought conditions, juvenile numbers will be down in the western areas and subsequently decrease overall numbers and harvest. In the eastern portions of the region, sharptail numbers are expected to be fair to good. Brood success in eastern areas appears to be good in areas that received precipitation in spring and early summer.

 

Destination: SOUTHEAST MONTANA

Multiple years of drought have taken a toll on bird numbers. While harvest in 2021 was around average, this year’s lek counts are down compared to 2021. Poor recruitment last year, little available habitat and some severe late snowstorms have had an effect on birds.

This year will be very similar to 2018. The area is coming out of a tough drought and has received moisture this year. The habitat looks great compared to prior years, which is good news. The bad news is that the low bird numbers, paired with great habitat and grasshoppers everywhere, are going to have what birds are out there spread pretty thinly across the landscape. This may give the illusion that numbers are worse than they actually are. With the conditions being so good, birds will be able to make a go of it just about anywhere and will not necessarily be in the typical places that hunters would find them on a “normal” year.

There are many areas within the region that experienced severe thunderstorms with torrential rains, hail and high winds. This kind of weather can have very adverse effects on nesting hens and young broods. Hunters should be prepared to be adaptable in the event that their favorite spot was the recipient of some of this weather.

The good thing about upland birds is that they have a high fecundity and are able to rebound very quickly if given adequate conditions.

 

2022 Upland game bird seasons

• Mountain grouse        Sept. 1–Jan. 1, 2023
• Partridge                     Sept. 1–Jan. 1, 2023
• Pheasant                     Oct. 8–Jan. 1, 2023
• Youth pheasant           Sept. 24–Sept. 25
• Sage-grouse                Sept. 1–Sept. 30
• Sharp-tailed grouse         Sept. 1–Jan. 1, 2023
• Fall turkey                           Sept. 1–Jan. 1, 2023

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