Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Toplines AZStatewide Oct2022

    Uploaded by

    The Federalist
    6K views6 pages
    AZ Statewide Toplines

    Original Title

    Toplines-AZStatewide-Oct2022

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    AZ Statewide Toplines

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    6K views6 pages

    Toplines AZStatewide Oct2022

    Uploaded by

    The Federalist
    AZ Statewide Toplines

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 6

    2225 Sycamore Street

    Harrisburg, PA 17111
    Phone: (717) 233-8850
    Email: james@susquehannapolling.com
    www.susquehannapolling.com

    Arizona Statewide Public Opinion Survey


    The Federalist ~ Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc.
    Interviews Conducted October 14-18, 2022
    Sample Size: 600 Likely Voters

    TOP LINE RESULTS AND QUESTIONNAIRE

    Good morning/afternoon/evening, my name is (YOUR FIRST NAME). I am calling on behalf of Susquehanna Polling and
    Research, a public opinion research firm. May I speak to (name on list) or another registered voter in your household?
    (If name on list or another registered voter is not available, TERMINATE)

    INTRODUCTION: We are conducting a survey of attitudes and opinions concerning some important issues facing Arizona
    today. May we have just 4 to 5 minutes of your time to complete a brief survey?

    Great, thank you…

    F1: Thinking ahead to the general election on Tuesday, November 8th for United States Senate and Governor, if the
    election were being held today would you rate your chances of voting as excellent, good, fair or poor?

    1. IF excellent/good 588 (98%) PROCEED TO Q1


    ---------
    2. If fair -- THANK AND TERMINATE
    3. If poor -- THANK AND TERMINATE
    --------
    4. If already voted 12 (02%) PROCEED TO Q1

    Q1. And do you plan to vote at the polls on Election Day, or by mail-in or absentee ballot?

    1. At polls 156 26%


    2. Mail-in/absentee ballot 423 71%
    3. Not Sure 20 03%
    Q2. From the following list of six, which two issues will most influence your vote for a federal candidate in November –
    immigration and border security, gas prices, inflation and the economy, abortion, crime and public safety, climate
    change, taxes, and federal spending? (PROBE FOR TWO)

    1. Immigration/border security 198 33%


    2. Gas/Inflation/economy 267 45%
    3. Abortion 218 36%
    4. Crime/public safety 134 22%
    5. Climate change 175 29%
    6. Taxes/federal spending 86 14%
    7. Other (DNR) 20 03%
    8. Not Sure (DNR) 77 13%
    9. Refuse (DNR) 2 00%

    (Rotate Q3-Q8)

    Q3. Is your opinion of Mark Kelly favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of him?

    1. Favorable 301 50%


    2. Unfavorable 258 43%
    3. No Opinion 39 06%
    4. Refuse 2 01%

    Q4. Is your opinion of Blake Masters favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of him?

    1. Favorable 190 32%


    2. Unfavorable 294 49%
    3. No Opinion 112 19%
    4. Refuse 3 01%

    Q5. Is your opinion of Kari Lake favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of her?

    1. Favorable 246 41%


    2. Unfavorable 286 48%
    3. No Opinion 66 11%
    4. Refuse 2 00%

    Q6. Is your opinion of Katie Hobbs favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of her?

    1. Favorable 215 36%


    2. Unfavorable 256 43%
    3. No Opinion 127 21%
    4. Refuse 2 00%
    Q7. Is your opinion of President Joe Biden favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of him?

    1. Favorable 232 39%


    2. Unfavorable 326 54%
    3. No Opinion 40 07%
    4. Refuse 2 00%

    Q8. Is your opinion of former President Donald Trump favorable, is it unfavorable or do you have no opinion of him?

    1. Favorable 185 31%


    2. Unfavorable 336 56%
    3. No Opinion 77 13%
    4. Refuse 2 00%

    Q9. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President? (Test Intensity…)

    1. Strongly approve 136 23%


    2. Somewhat approve 114 19%
    Total Approve: 250 42%

    3. Neutral/No Opinion 46 08%

    4. Strongly disapprove 285 48%


    5. Somewhat disapprove 17 03%
    Total Disapprove: 302 50%

    (Rotate Q10-Q11)

    Q10. If the election for United States Senate were being held today, would you vote for Mark Kelly, the Democrat
    candidate, Blake Masters, the Republican candidate, or Marc Victor, the Libertarian candidate? (ROTATE NAMES)

    1. Kelly/Democrat 286 47.7%


    2. Masters/Republican 267 44.5%
    3. Victor/Libertarian 10 01.7%
    4. Not Sure 33 05.5%
    5. Other 1 00.2%
    6. Refuse 2 00.4%

    Q11. If the election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Katie Hobbs, the Democrat candidate, Kari
    Lake, the Republican candidate, or Mikaela Lutes-Burton, the Libertarian candidate? (ROTATE NAMES)

    1. Hobbs/Democrat 288 47.9%


    2. Lake/Republican 283 47.2%
    3. Lutes-Burton/Libertarian 5 00.8%
    4. Not Sure 20 03.4%
    5. Other 3 00.6%
    6. Refuse 1 00.2%
    (Rotate Q12-Q13)

    Q12. If the election for Arizona Attorney General were being held today, would you vote for Kris Mayes, the Democrat
    candidate, Abe Hamadeh (Hamma-dah), the Republican candidate, or Samantha Severson, the Libertarian candidate?
    (ROTATE NAMES)
    1. Mayes/Democrat 268 44.7%
    2. Hamadeh/Republican 251 41.9%
    3. Severson/Libertarian 22 03.6%
    4. Not Sure 58 09.6%
    5. Other 0 00.0%
    6. Refuse 1 00.2%

    Q13. If the election for Arizona Secretary of State were being held today, would you vote for Adrian Fontes, the
    Democrat candidate, or Mark Finchem, the Republican candidate? (ROTATE NAMES)

    1. A. Fontes/Democrat 280 46.6%


    2. M. Finchem/Republican 254 42.3%
    3. Not Sure 62 10.4%
    4. Other 3 00.6%
    5. Refuse 1 00.2%

    We have just a few questions for demographic purposes…

    Q14. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or with some other political party?

    1. Republican 231 38%


    2. Democrat 180 30%
    3. Independent/other 187 32%
    4. Refuse 2 00%

    Q15. Regardless of how you are registered to vote, do you consider yourself to be more of a Republican, a Democrat, or
    an Independent or unaffiliated voter?

    1. Republican 240 40%


    2. Democrat 181 30%
    3. Independent/unaffiliated 176 29%
    4. Other 3 01%

    Q16. What was your age on your last birthday? (Use brackets below)

    1. 18-29 38 06%
    2. 30-44 111 18%
    3. 45-54 102 17%
    4. 55-64 140 23%
    5. 65 and older 207 35%
    6. Refuse 1 00%
    Q17. When it comes to your political ideology, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate, liberal,
    progressive, Libertarian or something else?

    1. Conservative 235 39%


    2. Moderate 187 31%
    3. Liberal 113 19%
    4. Progressive 23 04%
    5. Libertarian 12 02%
    6. Other 20 03%
    7. None 8 01%
    8. Refuse 1 00%

    Q18. What is your highest level of education? (UNAIDED)

    1. High school diploma or less 114 19%


    2. Some college, but no college degree 171 28%
    3. 2-year college degree/Technical or trade degree 79 13%
    4. 4-year college degree 104 17%
    5. Post-graduate degree/Masters/Doctorate studies 130 22%
    6. Refuse 1 00%

    Q19. What is your main racial or ethnic background?

    1. African American/African/Black 9 02%


    2. Asian American/Asian 16 03%
    3. Hispanic/Latino 101 17%
    4. Multiracial/Multiethnic 5 01%
    5. Native American/Alaska Native 0 00%
    6. Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 0 00%
    7. White (Not Latino/Hispanic) 463 77%
    8. Race/ethnicity not represented by above categories 3 01%
    9. Refuse (Do Not Read) 3 01%

    THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THE SURVEY. HAVE A GOOD DAY.

    Gender (by observation):

    1. Male 288 48%


    2. Female 312 52%

    Area Breaks:

    368 61% 1. Maricopa County


    95 16% 2. Pima County
    62 10% 3. Northern Counties of Apache, Coconino, Gila, La Paz, Mohave, Navajo, Yavapai
    75 12% 4. Southern Counties of Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pinal, Santa Cruz, Yuma
    Vote History Last Four General Elections (G20, G18, G16 and/or G14 plus new registrants since G20):

    0X 46 08%
    1X 114 19%
    2X 84 14%
    3X 129 22%
    4X 226 38%

    METHODOLOGY, SAMPLE FRAME CONSTRUCTION AND DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURES

    This telephone poll is commissioned by the Federalist and conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc1. Interviews were
    conducted October 14-18, 2022, with 600 registered/likely voters in Arizona. Survey respondents are randomly contacted using
    random selection procedures, and all telephone interviews are conducted using live telephone agents. The sample frame was
    drawn from a randomly selected universe of households provided by Aristotle International which uses census state population
    data compiled from certified voter registration rolls, as well as computer coding protocols to ensure the sample is both random and
    geographically representative of the targeted universe. Eligible respondents are then pre-selected for the sample frame based
    primarily on households with prior vote history in at least 1 of 4 (or better) general elections, using G20, 18, G16 and/or G14 as the
    base universe; new registrants to the voter rolls since G20 are also eligible to be contacted. The sample frame includes a balanced
    mix of both landline and cellular households consistent with the latest telephone usable patterns available. Households are pre-
    screened to eliminate telephone numbers on the federal Do Not Call registry in compliance with federal and state laws.

    Interviews are closely monitored to ensure a representative sample of registered/likely voters in Arizona is achieved based on party
    registration, geography, racial background, gender, age and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted to
    account for non-response and/or coverage bias.

    The margin of error for a sample size of 600 interviews is +/-4.0% at the 95% confidence level.

    1
    Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. is a nationally recognized polling and focus group company and conducts polling for political, media and
    corporate clients in numerous states. SP&R’s polling has been featured on many national platforms, including the Rush Limbaugh Radio Show, FOX
    News Channel, The O’Reilly Factor, the Bill Maher Show and MSNBC. The former internet news service Sunshine State News of Florida referred to
    SP&R as “one of the most prominent pollsters in the country” for its accurate polling in the 2010 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary Election. The
    website www.realclearpolitics.com lists SP&R’s Presidential Battleground Polling in PA, WI, NC, FL and AZ as some of the most accurate polling by
    any survey firm in the 2020 POTUS elections. CBS’s nationally televised Inside Edition program chose SP&R to profile on two separate segments due
    to its unmatched accuracy in 5 key battleground states in the lead up to the 2020 General Election.

    You might also like