World Ocean Outlook 2023

The blue economy was valued at an estimated US$2.5trn annually before the outbreak of covid-19, equivalent to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the world’s eighth-largest economy. But the health of the ocean—and therefore the rest of the planet—hangs in the balance. Climate change, pollution, resource extraction and other destructive human activities are harming marine ecosystems and their ability to sequester CO2 emissions and produce oxygen, as well as to sustain ocean industries such as food production.

In 2022 we saw some major wins for marine health which should go some way to halting its decline. These include the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) agreement to ban some harmful fishing subsidies—although more progress is needed in 2023—and the UN Environment Assembly’s decision to negotiate a treaty to ban plastic pollution. Negotiators came close to agreeing on a high seas treaty to give legal protections for international waters, and we are hopeful that this will be achieved in 2023.

And although the world is not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 14 (SDG 14)—to conserve and use the ocean for sustainable development—many solutions exist to create a sustainable blue economy. In 2022 we saw exciting new initiatives, alliances, tools and innovations launched in every blue sector. Importantly, the finance sector is increasingly engaged in ocean health and recognising its longer-term impacts on investments on land and sea.

We expect progress in 2023 in shaping a robust plastic pollution treaty, and for the WTO ban on harmful fishing subsidies to come into force and be extended to apply to overfishing and overcapacity. A tougher decarbonisation target for shipping is also set to be adopted in 2023. Increased ambition will be needed in countries’ proposals for establishing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), and in channelling funding for MPAs to developing countries. An important decision is likely over whether to allow deep- sea mining to begin in international waters. And, most importantly of all, greater ambition will be needed in curbing greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. But all multilateral talks are set against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the subsequent energy crisis for many parts of the world, and growing tensions between China and the US.

Weakening economic growth and shifts in international trade will continue in 2023 to impact blue sectors including fisheries, aquaculture and shipping. The rising costs of inputs, fuel and energy have pushed up prices of fisheries and aquaculture products. Shipping faces slowing demand. It also faces possible changes after the covid-19 pandemic exposed weaknesses around supply chains being reliant on distant suppliers.

The energy crisis could accelerate ocean renewable energies, especially offshore wind production.