Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

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Moses Ebe Ochonu

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Jan 29, 2023, 11:15:10 AM1/29/23
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BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

Moses E. Ochonu

 

Tinubu's strategy from the very beginning was wrong. Perhaps it was a product of his arrogant entitlement ideology of emi lokan (it’s my turn).

 

He wrote off the Southeast and South-south and put all his proverbial eggs in the northern basket. He went all in, gambling that the north would deliver for him and that, combined with the southwestern vote, that would give him the presidency.

 

It was always a risky electoral strategy. Firstly, it overly relies on the support of APC governors and other APC stakeholders in the north. It overestimates the political capital of the APC governors and stakeholders in the region, given Buhari/APC's woeful performance and its discrediting effect on everyone associated with the party.

 

Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him. That, unfortunately for him, has been made quite difficult by the advent of BVAS and electronic vote transmission. 

 

The Osun ruling from yesterday is a further disincentive for rigging since any serious discrepancy between declared votes and the number of BVAS-accredited voters will render a victory invalid. Politicians may be more less inclined to rig considering yesterday's judgment that hinged on over-voting.

 

Secondly, BAT's strategy overly relied on hitching himself to Buhari. That strategy was flawed last year and is even more flawed today. It overestimates the extent to which Buhari still holds sway over the Northern masses. 

Conversely, it underestimates or even ignores the anger and opposition towards Buhari and APC at the Northern political grassroots, a resentment borne out of the catastrophic failure of Buhari in the North in particular. The resulting disappointment runs deep.

 

This is 2023, not 2015. I often shake my head when I read Southwestern political analysts and pundits, including Tinubu's people, talk about Buhari's cult-like following in the north. Even in January 2023, I still hear and read that outdated claim. It was true in 2015. It is now pure fiction.

 

Not only is that narrative not true today, but the northern masses have in fact turned decisively against Buhari/APC. The cult-like adulation of 2015 has transformed into an implacable angst against Buhari/APC. Tinubu is using the political reality, language, and rhetoric of 2015 to campaign in 2022/23. His strategists have completely missed the recent radical shift in the political mood of the northern electorate.

 

And so, Tinubu and his strategists continue to believe that pandering to Buhari, professing love for him, and drawing ever closer to him would translate to votes in the north. That wrong prognosis is what is informing their strategy.

 

The interesting thing is that Tinubu, in his Ogun state rally speech, seemed to have inadvertently thrown off the yoke of his inexplicable loyalty to Buhari, a bromance or pretended political bromance that is now an electoral liability in the region that holds the key to his victory--the north.

 

When he blamed Buhari and the cabal for sabotaging his campaign, he was finally finding his own voice and separating himself from his burdensome and increasingly costly embrace of Buhari. 

 

Even if this was not what he intended, strategically, it was a good thing for him. It would enable him to ditch his counterproductive over-reliance on Buhari and the APC northern elite and give him a rhetorical platform to appeal directly to northern voters by demonstrating to them that he is his own man, is not beholden to Buhari and APC, their tormentors in the last seven years, and that were he to win, he would move in a different direction.

 

Did Buhari stay the course in this new independent path that could help him? No. Instead he and his aides have, for 48 hours straight, been kissing and making up with Buhari. They've been mollifying Buhari. They're backtracking and restating Tinubu's admiration for Buhari and his commitment to their friendship.

 

More egregiously, they've been repeating Tinubu's ill-advised and losing rhetoric that he would continue with Buhari's achievements and policies if elected.

 

His Ogun State speech gave him a golden opportunity to finally break away from the losing message of wanting to continue from where Buhari stops, but instead of sticking with the newly minted anti-Buhari rhetoric, he and his handlers went right back to the failing messaging of wanting to be Buhari 2.0.

 

They continue to gamble foolishly on Buhari's eroded political goodwill in the north and the largely impotent support of northern APC political leaders while neglecting the critical task of appealing to and changing the minds of an increasingly anti-APC northern electorate.

 

Even if Buhari was still popular in the north, Buhari’s refusal to directly boost Tinubu or campaign for him in the north should have taught Tinubu a lesson: that kissing up to Buhari is a losing strategy even in the north. In 2023.

 

Some may argue that Tinubu has no choice but to cling to Buhari and that, given his gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges, this is his only remaining card to play even if it’s fraught with risk and is proving detrimental. 

 

I don’t agree. If unfavorable electoral dynamics and political events compel you to gamble, the most reasonable gamble is to separate yourself from a failed president and hope that it helps you with an electorate disillusioned with that president.

 

 

Toyin Falola

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Jan 29, 2023, 11:49:24 AM1/29/23
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Has he lost the election?

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Tunde Oloro

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Jan 29, 2023, 12:06:58 PM1/29/23
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Very strong comment, sir. 

Perhaps, BAT may teach us POL 101 with this election, seeing he has not lost any election in the past,  not even ones he openly supported. 


I'm learning everyday here, sir! 

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RAHEEM Oluwafunminiyi

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Jan 29, 2023, 12:09:04 PM1/29/23
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It appears so, given the balkanising votes across the board. This election may go into a rerun. 

Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi

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Jan 29, 2023, 12:12:53 PM1/29/23
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Dr. Ochonu,

Permit me to learn more from you and consequently educate myself by your answers to the following questions.

1. Has the election been conducted? If so,  who won? If not, how did you know that Tinubu has lost the election?

2. You noted that Buhari failed without as much as itemizing the indicators with which you arrive at your conclusions. 

Yes, I know that Nigeria's economy is moribund and insecurity is at its highest levels, however, economic crisis is commonplace, even in advanced democracy. I was at Walmart just yesterday night and a crate of egg sold for 5.00 USD. 

3. I am not a northerner and therefore cannot speak to the acceptance or otherwise of Buhari across the north. 

Sir, I do not think social media is also a barometer to gauge Buhari's or anyone's acceptance, especially in Nigeria. How then do you come to the conclusion that Northern youths have dumped Buhari?

Thank you for your time. 

Bukola

Folami Kolade

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Jan 29, 2023, 12:31:33 PM1/29/23
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Tinubu is losing the election. Atiku is winning. May God help Nigeria.

Moses Ochonu

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Jan 29, 2023, 12:54:45 PM1/29/23
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Dr. Oyeniyi,

Let me be a good Nigerian and answer your first and second questions with two questions. Where in my piece did I state that the election has been conducted, won, and lost? Is there a rule that says observers cannot pontificate or analyze an election or its trends until it is conducted?

You say you’re not a northerner so cannot speak to Buhari’s current political standing among the northern masses. Then listen to a “northerner” who grew up in the north and studies the region for a living.

Cheers.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2023, at 11:31 AM, Folami Kolade <kollyj...@gmail.com> wrote:



Toyin Falola

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Jan 29, 2023, 12:59:44 PM1/29/23
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Moses
I am not defending OBA, but your tone is suggestive that he has lost an election. The theory of mistake(s) is dual: a process and an outcome, and the weight is tilted more to the latter.

If the tone is “why Tinubu may lose the election,” the essay would not have been misread, as you are discussing the process without knowing the outcome.

 

I am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy.

TF

Folami Kolade

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Jan 29, 2023, 1:06:29 PM1/29/23
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Sir, without holding a brief for Professor Ochonu, I am responding to the issue of the 5.00 dollar egg in Walmart. For me, it is not the same as the Nigerian economic crises. I left Nigeria for the US in 2021. In 2021 the price of a crate of eggs in Nigeria was 800 naira. At that time a dollar was exchanged for naira @ around 400. That is 2 dollars per crate. I could not afford to buy a crate per month because as a teacher, all I earned per month was less than 200 dollars. But here in the US as a TA, the egg  @ 5.00 $ per crate is highly affordable for me and I buy it regularly. So the comparison is unfair here. I saw the same thing in your article, criticizing Kunle Afolayan's 'Anikulapo' by comparing it to the big budget and Hollywood-sponsored "Woman King". These are unfair comparisons, sir. 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023 at 10:12 AM Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi <oyen...@gmail.com> wrote:

Moses Ochonu

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Jan 29, 2023, 1:56:10 PM1/29/23
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Quite frankly, any Nigerian who is still asking for evidence of Buhari’s failure or raising distracting comparisons to the US is playing games and does not deserved to be engaged in an age of competing demands on one’s time.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2023, at 12:06 PM, Folami Kolade <kollyj...@gmail.com> wrote:



Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi

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Jan 29, 2023, 1:56:47 PM1/29/23
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Dr. Ochonu,
Thank you for your response. TF has said it all.

Clearly, you are not saying that whatever you said with respect to the North is the gospel truth. 

Thank you for the education. 

Bukola

Okey Iheduru

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Jan 29, 2023, 2:18:59 PM1/29/23
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Nigeria's "intellectual" class; or, is it the "intelligentsia"! Not one serious engagement with the issues raised in Prof. Ochonu's article. Instead, we see distractions that betray the usual salivating for impending ethno-class harvest. It's 2015 (twenty-fifteen) 2.0!



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Toyin Falola

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Jan 29, 2023, 2:22:37 PM1/29/23
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Okey:

Why not raise the issues and let us debate?

TF

 


Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 1:19 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>

Moses Ebe Ochonu

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Jan 29, 2023, 4:15:47 PM1/29/23
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For additional context, here's my Facebook update from two days ago:

In truth, Tinubu’s unraveling did not start with Naja’atu or fuel queues or Naira redesign or inflation. These are just opportunistic and fortuitous pile-ons. As they say, when it rains, it pours.
Tinubu’s wahala [in the north] started when he tried but failed to recite the Fatiha, the foundational, opening Surah of the Qur’an, in the Kaduna northwest zonal campaign rally.
That calamitous outing in a zone where politics and religion are entwined is hard to recover from. The error amplified and gave credence to rumors and innuendos already rife in Arewa subterranean grassroots and social media outposts about the legitimacy of Tinubu’s Muslim identity and devotion.
It was an unforced error, really, a self-inflicted injury. Tinubu did not need to recite the Fatiha. Nor was he expected to. He was just trying to do too much, to use the language of our Gen Z interlocutors.
He was trying to overcompensate and pander to Muslim northerners who, because of his neglect of the Southeast and South-south, hold the key to his success or failure in the election.
The damage done by that misstep was already compounding before Naja’atu, Naira wahala, and fuel scarcity happened to him, a perfect storm of adversity at the worst possible time in the campaign.
And he’s responding poorly to the setbacks. Blaming Buhari and unnamed “they” in the government of his own party for sabotaging him further alienates the Buhari cabal from his catastrophic campaign.
His puerile outburst in Ogun state also reinforces the impression that he’s losing grip on the election and making preemptive excuses for an imminent loss. Only a losing candidate complains of a conspiracy against them by their own incumbent party.
All of this has an air of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Okey Iheduru

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Jan 29, 2023, 4:16:23 PM1/29/23
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Oga TF:

Moses has already LOUDLY and UNAMBIGUOUSLY laid out the issues in his write-up, given the wealth of information and professional knowledge available to him at this time. Those who disagree with him could pen a serious riposte to his claims, assertions, and conclusions, rather than engage in linguistic gymnastics that betray their ethno-regional and class biases. 

Okey

Toyin Falola

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Jan 29, 2023, 4:31:01 PM1/29/23
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Moses:

The idea that the Yoruba are not Muslim enough predated the birth of Tinubu. Yoruba are “pagan Muslims.” I can recite the Fathia, as it is so common that there is not much to it. I wander in the streets a lot and the main mosque at Onigbongbo has next to it a drinking place owned by Genesis, an Igbo man. I drink there, and you see people leaving the mosque to drink beer.

Having said this, I am responding to a debate. Debates are very healthy, as long as one sees them as a movement of ideas that are unstable. I don’t know who is going to win this election. All election analyses have a life span of 24 hours. In my own analysis, Obi is short by 4 states in all possible permutations, and what Obi gets Atiku loses.

All elections are about calculations, and it is when we see the outcome that we know what worked and what failed. What we do not see may count more than what we see, as stakeholders calculate how they will part of the state capture.

TF

Cornelius Hamelberg

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Jan 29, 2023, 5:00:52 PM1/29/23
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Nigeria could be seen as a microcosm of Africa. That being the case, it’s now almost an African / Pan-African proverb /an axiomatic truism that if Nigeria makes it, then the rest of Africa could also succeed. That’s why our attention is riveted on the forthcoming Nigerian Elections slated for 25th February 2023. Everybody’s agreed that whatever unproven, radically new or useless, retrogressively old direction the country will take will begin with leadership quality. Right now,  we can see how Bola Tinubu transformed Lagos and therefore surmise that given just half a chance, he could be poised to do the same with the whole country. Better the old devil that you know, than the devil that you don’t know, the other devil that’s trying to tell you that he’s the new 62-year-old new kid on the block, that he’s the second Moses, that he’s a saint, that he’s Peter the new rock, that he’s the messiah,  that he’s Mister  Miracle Man, that he’s going to transform water into oil, that he’s going to perform even greater wonders, the wonders that he never performed as governor of his native Anambra. And how do you like that? ….

It’s no exaggeration, it’s totally accurate that the honest and straightforward and the well-meaning observers and bystanders too are aggrieved and in our hearts weep bitter tears. We are exceedingly angry, frustrated, disappointed and feel betrayed, because this sleeping giant of a country that has been gifted with such great human potential and natural resources has been systematically devastated, literally, incrementally plundered and now sunk to the ground zero level of human development, by corruption

Not only in Nigeria, when the time for the next election is near, but that’s also the time when old and new parties with a few old crooks, some of them  newly minted, others merely being  recycled so-called honourable men, all of them being repackaged  and packeted by their media spin doctors as unsoiled goods  - some of them already with an unenviable track record of corruption, suddenly pop up to start singing the pious refrain once again, apparently to fool the masses:  “ I shall put an end to corruption!”  - “Zero tolerance for corruption !” - “This is the new broom that will sweep clean!” 

I dislike the acerbic tone and tenor of Moses Ochonu’s drift, most intensely and would like to register that I detest him imputing that an honourable aspirant, an elder gentleman of the statute of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Adekunle Tinubu could want to rig himsled0f to victory :

Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him.” ( According to Moses Ochonu).  We don’t have to be both disingenuous and wilfully rude at the same time, do we?

Reminds me of the lyrics from another song, Master Song   : 

I suppose that Bola Tinubu told you everything, that he keeps locked away in his head?

The 9th Commandment:  You shall not bear false witness against your neighbour.

There's so much more to take up, but, for the time being, I'll stop here and go no further. 

Moses Ochonu

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Jan 29, 2023, 5:12:12 PM1/29/23
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Oga TF,

Of course all election analyses are provisional and speculative—informed speculation. No one has a crystal ball. And as they say 24 hours is an eternity in politics. But that does not mean that we shouldn’t analyze trends as they emerge and extrapolate plausible conclusions from them.

My own permutation is somewhat similar to yours, which is that Obi lacks the national spread. That said, the north is getting away fast from Tinubu, so it’s looking like Atiku’s election to lose if the current trend holds, as the primordial forces of the north are coalescing around Atiku. He’ll get the most likely to get the required 25% in 2/3 of states. Obi and Tinubu will struggle to get that required constitutional percentage spread. 

Additionally, Tinubu begins with a narrow electoral map of 4 zones (SW, NC, NW, NE) since he wrote off SS and SE. If he loses the vote-rich NW and NE, which is looking likely, it’s game over for him. For Obi everything rests on his enthusiasm and youth edge. 

Young people and educated people are notoriously unreliable voters, but if they show up big for him he could pull a surprise by coming first or second in the popular vote since he begins with the SE and SS locked in. He already has Benue and Plateau and may get FCT and Taraba. He’ll be very competitive in Nassarawa and will get 25 percent in Kogi.

If Obi manages to win the popular vote, a big if, we’re heading to a runoff. Even if he doesn’t, he could as you said deny Atiku an outright win by taking away his 25% in 2/3.

For me, I see Tinubu’s path as the narrowest unless something drastic happens in the next 27 days to change his fortunes in the NW and NE and make him more competitive there. Everyone knows that his path to victory runs through those two zones. The only state Tinubu will get in the NC is Kwara and I am told that the Saraki factor and the lingering APC crisis there may make Atiku competitive there.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2023, at 3:31 PM, Toyin Falola <toyin...@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:



segun...@gmail.com

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Jan 29, 2023, 6:58:41 PM1/29/23
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I admire the position of TF and his conclusion quoted below. 

“I am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy.” TF 


 Segun Ogungbemi. 

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Sent from my iPhone
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Cornelius Hamelberg

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Jan 29, 2023, 6:58:41 PM1/29/23
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Correction . Should read : “Everybody’s agreed that whatever unproven, radically new or useless, retrogressively old direction the country will take will depend on leadership quality. Right now,  we can see how Bola Tinubu transformed Lagos and therefore surmise that given just half a chance, he could be poised to do the same with the whole country. "

 Talk is cheap.

Oluwatoyin Adepoju

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Jan 30, 2023, 3:11:16 AM1/30/23
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May Tinubu and his Boko Haram stained partner Shettima not win. May Atiku, who has been compliant through silence and obfuscation on terrorism  from imperialists among his fellow Fulani, not win.

All Moses has done is analyze Tinubu's political strategy and its implications, no more. He has not spoken for or against him. He has not added something also significant, what might be a growing disenchantment with Tinubu even in the SW.

I was shocked to observe anti-Tinubu sentiment even among the admittedly few academic and non-academic staff I interacted with at Obafemi Awolowo University  late last year,  a place where Yoruba is the lingua franca, even among academics.

It also seems that aspects of the Tinubu legacy have soured a significant number of people in the SW. One of these is what may be called the Agbero Factor, the use of a motley band of people, often associated with the National Road Transport Workers union, as informal tax collectors and political enablers, leading to the fleecing of transporters and thuggery.

Watching the Covenant church organised discussion among gubernatorial contenders on Channels TV yesterday, a discussion that the APC/Tinubu candidate, Lagos state governor Sanwo Olu chose not to attend, I got the impression that the Tinubu era in SW politics might be coming to an end, having been battered both by its own internal contradictions and the terrible fallout from the alliance with Buhari.

I remain amazed at Tinubu's choice of Shettima as his running mate, wondering the kind of risky calculations  informing that move, something that Tinubu loyalists I have spoken with have not been able to reasonably justify.

Tinubu's story might be  best appreciated in comparison with that of Awo, the quintessential hero of SW politics and the most illustrious  figure from the region in national politics.

Awo and Tinubu represent the tension in that region's politics between regional consolidation and national reach, particularly in relation to efforts to rule the country,  a struggle also marked in Northern politics, an oscillation pursued with most success by Northern military and political figures,  with Buhari being the most successful, ironically with the help of Tinubu and his compatriots, as Tinubu outlined in his emilokan speech.

Awo's role in the civil war and his subsequent politics may be seen as nationalistic orientations,  but which yet failed to give him the Presidency, leaving his achievements in the SW his largely incontestable legacy.

Tinubu created a political empire in the SW and is trying to extend it into becoming President, using an alliance that was risky at the onset and has proven cancerous in its maturation.

What options were open to Tinubu, given what some see as the sidelining of the SW in the most strategic appointments in the GEJ govt, even though Adesina's achievement in that cabinet is understood as exemplary by many? Various forces were arrayed against GEJ, who was perhaps pushing his luck too far in seeking a second term after completing Yaradua's term and his own first term. Tinubu and others successfully constellated those forces in forcing GEJ out.

Tinubu needs a strategy that will manage the Buhari liability and other liabilities he is suffering, referenced by Moses as  ''gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges'' a description for which there is evidence in favour of, whatever one might think of the evidence.

A touching story. As one view put it, having positioned himself and others for decades at lower levels, his best chance for the highest level arrives when time is far advanced, when health issues are unhelpful, when the alliance on which so much was staked, so much history revised to support, is proving problematic.

May he not win.

May the man who was silent while the SW and the nation was ravaged by Fulani imperialists and bandits, a person who has elevated to the national stage Kassim Shettima, the figure who enabled the Chibok kidnapping by keeping the Chibok school open against the orders of the fed govt and in whose governors lodge Boko Haram bomber, massacerer of innocents, Kabiru Sokoto, is described as having been  found, the man who enabled a clearly terorrism sympathetic, violent figure whose supporters have massacred others for him, into reaching the Presidency,  not win.

Thanks

Toyin



Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD.

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Jan 30, 2023, 5:02:09 AM1/30/23
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Prof Ochonu,
Permission to share and publish this on a website I managed, please.




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Toyin Falola

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Jan 30, 2023, 5:11:25 AM1/30/23
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The piece below is by Toyin Adepoju, and not Moses Ochonu.

Permission may not be necessary if you reference the source.

Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD.

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Jan 30, 2023, 6:20:46 AM1/30/23
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It's the piece on Tinubu by Ochonu that I'm talking about. Titled BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

Moses Ochonu

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Jan 30, 2023, 9:00:20 AM1/30/23
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Dr. Oyegbile,

Please I’ll send you a corrected version shortly for you to publish on your site. This one has some errors because I wrote and sent it at night (first as a Facebook update) and was too sleepy to proofread.

Thanks,
Moses

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On Jan 30, 2023, at 5:20 AM, Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD. <yink...@gmail.com> wrote:



Moses Ebe Ochonu

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Jan 30, 2023, 12:27:28 PM1/30/23
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The picture is getting clearer by the day. Tinubu is no fool; he saw the proverbial handwriting, the gathering storm. That's what prompted his outburst in the Abeokuta rally where he blamed Buhari for sabotaging his campaign with fuel scarcity and Naira redesign. 

Tinubu is finished in the Northwest. His problem there started with the botched Fatiha debacle. Social media and mosques amplified it. A few fringe Salafi preachers tied to provide a counterpoint by pointing to the Muslim-Muslim ticket and saying it's a welcome form of jihad and that, whatever the faults and deficits of Tinubu, it's an obligation for Muslims to vote that ticket, etc. That rhetoric fell flat and didn't resonate much. There was also an explosion of Hausa social media comedy skits mocking Tinubu's serial incoherence, his visible physical impairment and illness, and his obvious cognitive decline that has produced several viral moments of accidental comedy. 

The vernacularization of Tinubu's mental and physical frailties contributed to his problems, as did his association with the Buhari-APC brand, which in the North has become synonymous with suffering, hunger, poverty, and callousness.

 And then respected grassroots politician, Hajia Naja'atu Muhammad, resigned from Tinubu's Presidential Campaign Council and not only endorsed Atiku but went an a national media blitz attacking Tinubu's fitness for office, including personal stories of when Tinubu was incoherent and slept through most of a two-hour meeting with her in London and she had to talk to Bisi Akande. They tried to discredit her but she revealed more damning inside information about Tinubu and his unsuitability for office, even saying that the Yoruba should have put forward Osinbajo, whom she praised, if they really wanted a Yoruba person to succeed Buhari.

 Many of the Northwest power brokers are now saying openly what they had been whispering in hushed voices: that they'll only do Arewa and support one of their own, especially when the other guy is, in their estimation, not much of a Muslim. The choice of Kashim Shetimma as running mate hasn't changed their minds or rehabilitated Tinubu's Muslim identity in their eyes. Kashim, at any rate, has no clout whatsoever in the Northwest. He's a Northeastern politician, and even there, his influence is mainly in Bornu and parts of Yobe. There are more things I know but can't reveal because one must keep confidence. That's the Northwest.

In the Northeast, Tinubu has a good chance of winning Borno and Yobe because of Kashim Shetimma, his running mate, but that's it. Atiku will sweep Bauchi, Gombe, and Adamawa. Taraba leans Atiku but Obi may spring a surprise there or at least be competitive.

Coming to the Northcentral, Tinubu has no chance except in Kwara. NC is a contest between Obi and Atiku. Obi is favored in Benue, Plateau, and FCT. Nasarrawa probably leans Atiku but is truly a toss up between Atiku and Obi. Kogi leans Atiku, but Tinubu will get second place there. Niger is Atiku's. Here, in the NC, who wins the zone may be determined not necessarily by who wins the most states but by who wins the most votes. That's uncertain at this point.

Obi's path is daunting. He has zero chance in the Northwest and won't even "smell" second place there. The only state in which he will be competitive in the Northeast is Taraba. Elsewhere in that zone, I don't see him getting second place.

Atiku's strength with 26 days to go is that where he doesn't win, he's likely to come second and add to his tally. In other words, he'll be competitive in all the 6 zones of Nigeria. Another strength is that the Northwest and Northeast, the two biggest voting blocs in terns of number of registered voters, are coalescing around him.

If Tinubu can't turn things around in the NW and NE (difficult but not impossible), he's toast as he can't win with SW votes alone and has no chance in SE,SS, and NC.

Obi's best chance is a massive youth turnout that makes him competitive everywhere except the NW and much of the NE.

TF is absolutely right: one day is an eternity in politics, let alone 26 days. A lot can shift between now and the election, and Tinubu is capable of pulling off the come-from-the-dead feat that won him the APC primary. Elite consensus can shift on a dime. Atiku can self-destruct. Obi can explode and change the dynamics and all permutations.

But as of today, and going by the trends we observe, the election is Atiku's to lose.

Based on the current trend (which can change in the next 24 hours), I'll say the following: 
If Atiku wins, I won't be surprised
If Tinubu wins I will be really, really surprised
If Obi wins, I will be shocked--pleasantly so, by the way.

Toyin Falola

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Jan 30, 2023, 12:38:10 PM1/30/23
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Moses:

One issue is missing from your analysis: state capture. Nigerians confuse politics with governance, which is why they clap for a governor who commissions a bridge as if democracy is necessary to build one.

Who are those forces who want to capture the state? A small cabal must control the oil from the Niger Delta (revenues are diminishing), the Lagos port (it brings more revenues that the entire budget of Ghana), and extract gold and run away with them in the middle of the night. With my base in Austin, I don’t know what they are whispering. Politics is not controlled by rallies but by whispers. Who controls the gossip chain? I know how it works in Ibadan!

Power in Nigeria is not to deliver good governance, unfortunately.

Moses Ebe Ochonu

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Jan 30, 2023, 3:09:14 PM1/30/23
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You're absolutely right, Oga TF. This is all about state capture. It is our depressing reality. I thought the state capture element was implicit in my analysis. Do you see the number of people following Atiku around? How about Tinubu's own people? Of course, it's state capture they're after. They want a share of the spoils when their man wins. The argument about state capture is buttressed by the multiethnic and multireligious coalitions and elite consensuses that have emerged behind each major candidate. The conspiracy Tinubu complained about is also not just the cabal, Buhari, and APC honchos. It's broad, and state capture is the goal as well.

Moses Ebe Ochonu

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Jan 30, 2023, 4:52:32 PM1/30/23
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This story, linked below, is for those who are still looking for evidence of Buhari's failure and of how much he's now hated in the North, making him a liability for Tinubu or anyone hitching a ride with him politically.





Cornelius Hamelberg

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Jan 30, 2023, 4:52:44 PM1/30/23
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With all of Trump’s taunts about “ Sleepy Joe Biden”, Sleepy Joe won and is even contemplating re-election two years from now when he would have attained the ripe old age of 82 years - the new 50 -  and still kicking, two years older than Moses, when he led the Children of Israel out of Egypt for a 40-year trek through the wilderness. 

Seriously:  On the BBC World News today:  Nigerians leaving Nigeria in droves because of the economic situation

Question arising: Which of Nigeria’s presidential hopefuls would be most likely to steer the ship of state, to turn things around for the better, not as a merry-go-round, to lead Nigerians back from the wilderness to the Promised Land? 

Nigeria's pontificating pundits, some of them not even living in Nigeria and observing first hand, in touch with the current temperature, the political weather, and the atmosphere, are nevertheless upbeat that according to their calculations, 76-year-old Atku ( of whom Pastor Obasanjo said “ God will never forgive me if I support Atiku for President'') is all set to win the next presidential election and take over as commander-in-chief of the national treasury,  the military etc. I can hardly believe that, or their maths, although one cannot rule out in the interests of what Toyin Adepoju fears as “ Northern Hegemony”, a silent Northern conspiracy  - a tacit understanding…how Nigeria should be governed for the next four years, and of course, including how the loot should be shared…

With some of the pundits’ emphasis on 70-year-old Bola Tinubu's age and the constant reference to what they say is “a medical condition “ - it could be - God forbid a replay of the so-called Yar'adua factor, meaning that all Bola Ahmed Tinubu has to do is to resign within months of winning the Presidential election and for e.g. Northerners who may be voting with their heads, not with their feet, this consideration that Kashim Shettima is a heartbeat away from the presidency, a win-win situation and could make a difference to how they vote. 

Food for thought: Rishon

Mr. E. B. Jaiyeoba

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Jan 30, 2023, 6:24:09 PM1/30/23
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Dear Prof Ochonu,

I wonder how many of the people contributing are on the ground in Nigerian politics and understand that the entourage of the candidates are not voters. You are also underestimating the power of northern political elites and the foreign interest in the Nigerian elections. Whether the Northern political elites realise the implication of a Northern Presidency at this time and what happens to Nigeria after that will be decisive just like the APC Governors had to rally behind Tinubu during the APC Primaries. The foreign interests are being discussed in our closets here.  

Also, you are not fully accounting for the 'shout out' of Tinubu about the artificial petroleum products scarcity and the change in the denominations of the Naira. That 'shout out' and the 'emilokan' (it is my turn speech) that both took place in Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria are subtle warnings that have been well noted by political strategists and ordinary people here on the ground.

You are also forgetting that Atiku hijacking and upturning the PDP constitution by taking over what should be a Southern Presidential candidacy is a factor. Governor Wike and cohorts will upset all your predictions on the SS. The mobilisation abilities of the candidates immediately before and on the day of the election will determine the final result. 

Well, on the street in South Western Nigeria, I can reliably inform you that a Northern President at this time is not really a welcome development. Yoruba Nation agitation is just around the corner and I suspect the Biafra agitation is lurking and awaiting the result of the Presidential election. Your guess is as good as mine as to what comes after...........



Just a voice from within!


Babatunde JAIYEOBA














E. Babatunde JAIYEOBA PhD
Professor of Architecture
Department of Architecture
Faculty of Environmental Design and Management
Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria




Moses Ebe Ochonu

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Jan 31, 2023, 2:53:12 AM1/31/23
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Professor Jaiyeoba,

"I can reliably inform you that a Northern President at this time is not really a welcome development."

To tell you the truth, my main preoccupation in my interventions in this election is not what is a "welcome development" and what is not. I have my own private views on what I call fairness and representational justice. I am more concerned with intelligently and plausibly speculating on what might happen as things stand, with the quick caveat that things might change quickly before the election.

I have no idea how an Atiku "northern" presidency would be received. My guess is that most Nigerians are like me: indifferent to that outcome. I just want the election to be done and over---peacefully of course. Most of our people tend to take that view. But I could be wrong. This time may be different. I simply don't know. I thought Southern Nigerians, in accepting the candidacy of Atiku, however reluctantly, had reconciled themselves to the possibility of his victory. After all, the race is between only three candidates, any of whom can win. But I am open to being proved wrong and surprised.

You raised several important issues. I must confess that I know nothing about the "foreign interest" dimension. I've never heard anything about it, so I'd appreciate it if you would educate me/us on it.

I do not think the G-5 PDP crisis will be a big factor in the election. The G-5 governors, since they didn't decamp, will need the PDP machinery to help their handpicked candidates for Governor, senate, and House of Reps win. They can't tell their people to vote for PDP in these other elections on the same ballot but switch to another party in the presidential election. Too complicated and not practical given our largely unlettered electorate. One of them, my state governor, Samuel Ortom, is himself a PDP Senate candidate on the same Feb. 25 ballot as Atiku.

Plus, if the current pro-Atiku trend continues, they'll realize that their best bet is to privately, quietly reenter the potential winner's circle. They'll come back "home." They won't work or campaign for Atiku but they won't stand in the way, and that's all Atiku needs from them in their states.

Yes, In the Southwest, a northern candidate is unacceptable and would hurt because it would be seen as a political betrayal of the informal pact between Tinubu and Buhari, but Atiku doesn't need the Southwest, which Tinubu already has in his back pocket. So, what will they do? The worst is to bring Igboho back to restart his Yoruba independence movement, which would not have much elite purchase in the region and would thus remain on the fringes, vulnerable, like IPOB, to draconian military crackdowns in the form of Operation this smile or that smile.

In the Southeast, the election and its outcome have absolutely no consequence for the fringe neo-Biafra agitation represented by IPOB and ESN. They don't care about the election and are urging their people not to participate.



Chika Okeke-Agulu

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Jan 31, 2023, 2:53:28 AM1/31/23
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The governor of Kano told Buhari not to visit, because of his government's standing in the state.  Buhari's helicopter was stoned by youths in Kano today, and in parts of the city, they blocked roads to deny him access. Talk about "cult following in the north"!
On Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 12:54:45 PM UTC-5 MEOc...@gmail.com wrote:
Dr. Oyeniyi,

Let me be a good Nigerian and answer your first and second questions with two questions. Where in my piece did I state that the election has been conducted, won, and lost? Is there a rule that says observers cannot pontificate or analyze an election or its trends until it is conducted?

You say you’re not a northerner so cannot speak to Buhari’s current political standing among the northern masses. Then listen to a “northerner” who grew up in the north and studies the region for a living.

Cheers.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2023, at 11:31 AM, Folami Kolade <kollyj...@gmail.com> wrote:


Tinubu is losing the election. Atiku is winning. May God help Nigeria.

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023 at 10:12 AM Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi <oyen...@gmail.com> wrote:
Dr. Ochonu,

Permit me to learn more from you and consequently educate myself by your answers to the following questions.

1. Has the election been conducted? If so,  who won? If not, how did you know that Tinubu has lost the election?

2. You noted that Buhari failed without as much as itemizing the indicators with which you arrive at your conclusions. 

Yes, I know that Nigeria's economy is moribund and insecurity is at its highest levels, however, economic crisis is commonplace, even in advanced democracy. I was at Walmart just yesterday night and a crate of egg sold for 5.00 USD. 

3. I am not a northerner and therefore cannot speak to the acceptance or otherwise of Buhari across the north. 

Sir, I do not think social media is also a barometer to gauge Buhari's or anyone's acceptance, especially in Nigeria. How then do you come to the conclusion that Northern youths have dumped Buhari?

Thank you for your time. 

Bukola

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023, 10:49 AM Toyin Falola <toyin...@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:

Has he lost the election?

 

From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 10:15 AM
To: USAAfricaDialogue <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

 

BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

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Cornelius Hamelberg

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Jan 31, 2023, 2:53:29 AM1/31/23
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Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju,

Thinking aloud,  wondering what kind of impact it would have on the outcome of this presidential election if Diaspora Nigerians were registered to vote, and why Diaspora Nigerians can’t vote,  taking into consideration that Diaspora Nigerians also constitute part of the brain-drain intelligentsia,  those who are disaffected with the situation back home,  economic refugees, and of course the bulk of whom contribute to the Nigerian economy by sending their very helpful remittances to Nigeria, in 2021, said to have been more than 20 billion dollars.

Surely Diaspora Nigerians ought to have a sayso and a democratic right to vote in Nigerian elections?



On Monday, 30 January 2023 at 09:11:16 UTC+1 ovdepoju wrote:

Mr. E. B. Jaiyeoba

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Feb 1, 2023, 9:32:28 AM2/1/23
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Dear Prof Ochonu,

"...I do not think the G-5 PDP crisis will be a big factor in the election. The G-5 governors, since they didn't decamp, will need the PDP machinery to help their handpicked candidates for Governor, senate, and House of Reps win....."

This is not entirely true. It might be true in the case of the Benue State Governor. In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde and the team and followers have no option and are therefore rooting for Tinubu, the opinion on the ground because the South West voters are sophisticated is that they are voting Tinubu for Presidency and Makinde for the governorship. In Governor Wike's state, almost the same has happened. The PDP in the state decided to go APC for the Presidential elections and remain PDP for the other electoral positions. Wike himself has employed over 200 special electoral assistants for the elections to ensure "strict compliance" with the expected end result. 


In Delta State where former governor Ibori is still the power broker in spite of everything (if you know what I mean) and where Atikus VP is from, Iboris people have all decamped to the APC. Do you know the reason? The present Governor is not a "loyal son' so if he becomes Vice President, the "Godfather/s" will not benefit. 

Also, in the South-South most militants are decidedly Tinubus men. He did something wonderful for one of the kingpins when he was taken out of circulation by those in power or 'had to run for cover' from the powers that be. It is payback time. Tinubu has been good to many people across the country in their moments of need just like M.K.O. Abiola. That will be a strong factor in this election. Many people will individually go against their paymasters in this election. 

The external influence factor is one that the academic elites understand and is a strong factor in convincing many of the young educated people that did not have the opportunity to study history when it was taken out of the curriculum and those that do not fully understand Global politics and power play.  This knowledge is the antidote to those easily persuaded by social network influencers and many of the young ones in the South West belong to this group. The very educated South West is actually the bedrock of Obi's support apart from the "Igbolisation" and "religionisation" of his support base according to one of my friends. His Labour Party presidential campaign organisation in Kano is headed by someone from the South East unless it has changed!

Many things are happening on the ground and everyday things are changing. Between Tinubu and Atiku you have two of the most experienced political organisers in the Nigerian political scene, of course, backed up by immense resources. Between them 'anything can happen' but Tinubu is ahead in political strategy (I call it wizardry).

On Yoruba Nation agitation, you are completely underestimating the Yorubas of South West. You need to be among the people to understand the feeling about what the South West could have been without being held down by the rest of the country with the foundation laid by Chief Obafemi Awolowo.  Around here, people are beginning to say it as it is and Igboho may just be remembered for rising up to the occasion when necessary but may be a follower if the situation arises. Your guess is as good as mine about what may happen about Biafra agitation if Yoruba Nation agitation becomes comprehensive. 

  




Babatunde JAIYEOBA

















E. Babatunde JAIYEOBA PhD
Professor of Architecture
Department of Architecture
Faculty of Environmental Design and Management
Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria



Cornelius Hamelberg

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Feb 1, 2023, 2:31:46 PM2/1/23
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Re  - “...listen to a “northerner” who grew up in the north and studies the region for a living.” ( Professor Moses Ochonu)

Discussing the Middle East some years ago a certain Professor Blake told me that he taught journalism and  the Middle East for a living. BTW, he should go and tell that to Ted Belmanm, to Professor Mark R Cohen  , who asked me in 2005 “ Do I know you?”  - and that was in response to my taking a distance to his saying back then, that peace ( the missing piece) in the Middle East) was just round the corner) , and about teaching whatever  or whoever it is that he teaches for a living,  Professor Blakey should go and tell that to Mahmoud Abbas whose Phd Thesis was  al-Wajh al-Akhar: al-'Alaqat as-Sirriya bayna an-Naziya wa's-Sihyuniya

When it comes to Nigeria too, there are various convictions, realties, levels of all kinds of poverty, spiritual, material, intellectual,  there’s the North, the South, the East, the West, the so called “Middle Belt”, the South-South, the South-East,  the North-West, the North-East , the equation  2 Nigerians = 3 opinions, the multiplicity= 240 ethnicities, and then there are the Muslims, the Owerri-Jews,  the various apostles of this and that Christianity fraternity,  The AroChukwu, the Ogboni, the upper echelons of Naija Society, and the lower echelons, the plebeians like me, the vermin ( blessed are the low in spirit ) and blessed are the low in expectations, there’s even the so called “ Labour Party” being led by an “old youth”, the 62-year-old new kid on the block, Peter Obi, the Anamba tycoon 

It’s mainly a three horse race isn’t it : Atiku who some ivory tower armchair pundits swear is being ridden by the likes of Lester Piggott,  there’s the Hon Bola Tinubu , and  there Oga Obi and what will be will be…

It should be good to hear directly from the horse’s mouth from 11 mins and 30 seconds into the recording: BBC Focus on Africa : Nigeria elections: Atiku Abubakar making sixth presidential bid - some of what he says is simply amazing! 

From 2 days ago — The BBC explores key contenders, voter issues and why this ballot is different to previous ones.: Nigeria elections 2023: What you need to know - BBC News

Atiku latest : Atiku Abubakar says 'nothing new' in corruption allegations made against him 

Salimonu Kadiri

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Feb 5, 2023, 8:10:26 AM2/5/23
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My understanding of the purpose of Professor Moses Ochonu's article was to counsel Bola Tinubu on what to do in order to win the coming presidential election, but the premise on which the learned professor based his counsel is totally illogical. After asserting, without empirical evidence, that Bola Tinubu's strategy is self-immolating, Professor Ochonu then proceeded to speculate about the cause of the said self-immolation thus, "Perhaps it was a product of his arrogant entitlement ideology of emi lokan (it's my turn)." It must be recalled that during campaign for the presidential primary of the APC, Bola Tinubu visited Ogun State to canvass for votes and since the governor of the state is also in control of the party in the State and would send delegates to the APC presidential primary, Bola Ahmed, addressed the would be-party delegates in Yoruba saying, "EMI LOKAN," which is to say it is my turn to be presidential flag bearer of the APC among the contestants, especially in the Southwest. It is my turn is a civilised way of telling anyone that wants to jump the queue to wait for his/her turn. There is nothing arrogant in telling someone, it is not your turn but my turn. Although the APC constitution does not stipulate rotational presidency between North and South there is a conventional agreement among members that such rotation is required for peaceful political co-existence.

However, certain forces wanted to truncate the unwritten agreement for rotational presidency between the North and South in the APC presidential primary election of 2022. In order to understand what led to the self-esteemed claim of 'emi lokan' by Tinubu one has to remember as Aisha Buhari complained in October 2016, that the APC government of her husband had been hijacked by non-APC fortune seekers and real members of APC were marginalised and isolated. As the 2019 election was approaching, the so-called cabals around Buhari realised that he could not win the election without active support from Tinubu, therefore, a rapprochement between Buhari and Tinubu was reached to secure the support of the latter for the former. A Nigerian intellectual seer from Atlanta in the US who claimed to be well-connected with the presidency in Nigeria wrote on this forum then that the cabal had deceived Tinubu and stated categorically that he got insider information from the cabal that Buhari would never allow Tinubu to succeed him. As the APC presidential primary was fast approaching in 2022, the APC got a new Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, and instead of zoning the Presidency to the South, it was thrown open. Tinubu's fellow southerners, especially his fellow Yoruba including the vice president Yemi Osinbajo, were also contesting for the presidential primary. Thus, at a campaign gathering in Abeokuta on Thursday, June 2, 2022, Tinubu narrated how he began with AD to form AC that progressed to ACN which merged with the CPC to form the core of APC. After naming all the Governors he had nurtured to power, he added that Buhari could not have been president without his, Tinubu's, support. Relative to his contribution to the development of the APC, Tinubu asserted that he was the most competent and qualified to be the presidential flag bearer of the party amongst the contesting candidates (EMI LOKAN). The opposite of 'EMI LOKAN' in Yoruba is 'AWA LOKAN' or 'AWON LOKAN' or 'IWO LOKAN.' which means, it is our turn or it is their turn or it is your turn. The Ohaneze Ndigbo (the Igbo Socio-Cultural Organisation) has said it is now the turn of the Igbo to produce President of Nigeria since democracy was re-instated in 1999, which is to tell other Nigerians, 'AWA LOKAN'. On their parts, Olusegun Obasanjo, Edwin Clark, and the AFENIFERE leader, Ayo Adebanjo, in supporting the presidential ambition of Peter Obi, have said that it is now the turn of the Igbo to produce President of Nigeria, implying 'AWON LOKAN.' 

In the presidential primary election of the APC that took place on June 8, 2022, Bola Ahmed Tinubu secured 1,271 votes out of 2,115 votes cast to become the flag bearer of APC in the 2023 presidential election while the closest contestant, Rotimi Amechi, got 316 votes. Bola Ahmed Tinubu said, (EMI LOKAN) 'it is my turn,' and majority of the APC delegates in the primary election responded, (IWO LOKAN) 'it is your turn.' Democratically, the delegates could have voted against Tinubu to tell him, 'it is not your turn,' (IWO KO LOKAN) because you are not number one on the queue. So, it is very malicious to say 'EMI LOKAN' (it's my turn) is an arrogant entitlement ideology. It is my turn is a normal statement that any normal person in this world, who is being, or about to be, by-passed in a queue, should utter.

After chiding Bola Tinubu for not dissociating with Muhammadu Buhari's government, Professor Ochonu scribbled, "Some may argue that Tinubu has no choice but to cling to Buhari and that given his gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges this is his only remaining card to play even if it's fraught with risk and is proving detrimental.'' Who are the 'Some' that our highly respected Christian professor of history has put, not only, words into their mouths about Tinubu but made them his personal physician? Up to 2020, a ruinous intellectual braggadocio feigning Sampson and Solomon in one incredible delusion was posting on this forum series of diagnoses on President Muhammadu Buhari ranging from Dementia, Alzheimer to Parkinson. The cabal in the presidential villa, he said, were ruling in his name and his wife was not even allowed to see him. Buhari may not have performed well to the expectation of Nigerians but he is about to be eight years in office and he is still waxing strong health-wise. While it is Professor Moses Ochonu himself, who is diagnosing Bola Ahmed Tinubu with all kinds of health deficits, he turned around to hide under a hypothetical 'Some' to publish his quackery emanating from his own personal anxiety. Anxiety, the psychiatrists say, is a psychological disorder, characterised by tension, the expectation of an impending disaster, and continuous vigilance for disaster. It is an over-activity of the autonomic nervous system. If the medical journals of Bola Tinubu are in the hands of 'Some' or Professor Moses Ochonu, please publish them instead of recruiting Nigerians into collective stupidity, illustrated by Solomon Asch, a psychologist, with: if a majority of people embraces a manifestly false and idiotic theory, others will go along with it merely because of the power of conformity. 

How could Professor Ochonu assert that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is relying on Buhari to win majority votes in the North in the coming election when he did not rely on him to win the presidential primary? Shortly before the APC presidential primary election on June 8, 2022, the National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Adamu announced that the President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan, supported by President Muhammadu Buhari, was the consensus presidential candidate of the Party. Since delegates to the primary from the North were numerically more than the South, Ahmad Lawan, the preferred candidate of Buhari, according to Abdullahi Adamu, should have won the primary. Instead, Tinubu garnered 1, 271 votes while Buhari's favourite candidate, Ahmad Lawan, received 152 votes to come fourth in the primary election. Obviously, it is Professor Ochonu who is over-exaggerating his own anxiety over Tinubu's supposedly reliance on Buhari's popularity to win majority of the votes in the North.

 The greatest obstacle to political and economic development of Nigeria is intellectual dishonesty. It is as a result of dishonesty that Nigerian intellectuals never see the truth. Nigerian intellectuals know that Section7 (3) of the PDP constitution stipulates zoning and rotation of the presidency between the North and South every eight years, yet Atiku Abubakar could violate the party's constitution to contest for the presidency after a Northerner like him would have completed eight years in office. Yet, there is no honest Nigerian intellectual to discuss Atiku's serious violation of the PDP's constitution through a stage-managed presidential primary in which only 767 delegates participated and Atiku Abubakar won 371 votes to become PDP presidential flag bearer in the coming election. Peter Obi was one of the 14 PDP candidates in the party's presidential primaries scheduled for 28 May 2022 before he resigned from the PDP on 25 May 2022. On Friday, 27 May 2022, Peter Obi joined the Labour Party and emerged three days later as Labour Party presidential flag bearer after winning 97 out of 98 votes cast at the supposedly party's presidential primary in Asaba, Delta State. Dishonest Nigerian intellectual will never discuss the fraudulent way Peter Obi was said to have been voted by only 97 Labour party delegates to become presidential flag bearer. As if Nigeria is a theocracy, the religious faiths of Presidential candidates are lifted up by the Nigerian intellectuals as the most important political issue to discuss. At the same time that the hypocrites were loudly protesting against what they term APC Muslim/Muslim Presidential ticket, a PDP Christian/Christian Governorship  ticket, Ademola Adeleke/Kola Adewusi, was declared the winner of Osun gubernatorial election in a State where Muslim adherents are said to be in the majority and Nigerian intellectuals were silent. Religious faiths have nothing to do with generation and distribution of electricity, production of potable water, and functional crude oil refineries or mechanised agriculture or conversion of nomadic pastoralism to ranching. Why are Nigerian intellectuals not discussing these issues that are so vital to the well-beings of Nigerians? 


From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Cornelius Hamelberg <cornelius...@gmail.com>
Sent: 30 January 2023 00:50
To: USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy
 
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Oluwatoyin Adepoju

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Feb 5, 2023, 1:41:39 PM2/5/23
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Moses argues that Tinubu's strategy is self defeating bcs it is hitched to identification with Buhari.

Is it true that Tinubu's strategy is hitched to identification with Buhari?

Is answering that question not vital for assessing the validity of Moses' argument?

Whatever one might think of that argument, it remains true that the 'emilokan' speech is double edged.

''Its the turn of the SW and by implication myself, bcs of the support which we in the SW and I, in particular, gave in enabling Buhari's Presidency after he had given up all hope of becoming President'' that being the core of that eloquent speech.

''Really?! You enabled a disaster become President and you want to captalize on that to become President?'' is one ironic response to that speech of regional and self enablement.

''Do you want the Presidency handed over to you as if its an arrangement among power brokers rather than a democratic contest between political parties, empowered by the will of the people? You must think very highly of yourself indeed'' is also another way of seeing the emilokan speech.

The emilokan speech signalled Tinubu's independence from Buhari but it also yoked him to Buhari with all the baggage that involves.

How is such a conundrum to be managed?

Tinubu's victory at the APC primaries may be described as being significantly enabled by the resolve of the Northern governors that the party's Preidential platform should go to the South.

Do the Northern Muslim majority share such an orientation?

The emilokan speech and the APC primaries need to be watched together as historic political events in which verbal and body language reverberate profoundly, between Tinubu's marshalling of speech and gesture in dramatizing his point in the emilokan speech and the signals sent by the manner in which the APC candidates either stepped down for Tinubu or opposed him during the primaries.

Govenor of Ekiti Kayode Fayemi announced his stepping down in the deeply reluctant yet resolute manner of  a person swallowing a bitter pill, stating that his turn will come for his own shot at the highest job, since he has much time ahead of him.

''Really?'', one may ask. A two time governor in his perhaps mid 50s is stepping down for another man in  his 70s or 80s in the claim that the time of the man in his 50s will come later because he has much time ahead of him.

Former lawmaker Dimeji Bankole, possibly in his 40s or early 50s, almost giggling in the role of a youth  to which he had allowed himself to be asigned to or to which he had assigned himself , also stepped down for Tinubu, declaring, in Yoruba, ''emi no fe dagba', ''I too want to mature into age''.

A man in his 40s or 50s presents himself as needing to concede the rght of the man in his 70s to vie for the highest office without opposition bcs he, the younger man, wants to mature into the ''entitlement'' of age?

Will these men expect to enjoy such concessions from younger ones in future?

Is advanced age a qualification for political office, particularly the highest of such offices, a job requiring the most agile of constitutions, the greatest creative flexibility and balance of mind? 

To what degree does the gerontocratic consensus suggested by the concessions  of those SW delegates reflect aspects of Yoruba social culture, carefully calibrated in term of forms of respect, in speech and gesture, in relation to age and authority?

Do such orientations spill over into what Basil Davidson  described as the fosslization of culture in terms of veneration of the confluence of the past, of tradition and ancestors in blocking African development until erstwhile migrants from Africa, forced to improvise in new envirnenments in which they found themselves, as Ali Mazrui put it, returned to conquer a content backward in such fundamentals of civilization as writing and technology?

But the Chinese had writing and were pioneers in such a technology as rocketry and yet were conquered by the same migrants.

Has  Tinubu's ambition damaged the future of SW politics?

What has been sacrificed in the ambition  of the kingmaker to become king?

Buhari pursued the Presidency unt he got it in  his 70s. Atiku is on a similar path. What does this mean for Nigeria, fast entering into a global universe that emerged well after such men became adults, represeting a very different dynamic from the one in which they were formed?

I wish Tinubu had conceded his place to Osinbajo rather than insisting on taking the reins himself, taking advatage of Osinbajo's positioning  in a move that would have addressed a good number of still painfully glaring issues.

thanks

toyin











Toyin Falola

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Feb 5, 2023, 1:54:55 PM2/5/23
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Adepoju:

I was wondering if you have read Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves released in 1944, remade as The Sword of Ali Baba (1965). The book sees thieves as freedom fighters against Mongol oppression, and Ali Baba as their leader.

TF

 


Date: Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 12:41 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>

Oluwatoyin Adepoju

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Feb 5, 2023, 4:14:39 PM2/5/23
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thanks prof. i have not read it. why do you suggest it

Toyin Falola

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Feb 5, 2023, 4:17:41 PM2/5/23
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Nigeria does not have political parties, as your analysis assumes, and as we study in textbooks. It has a band of thieves who come together under an umbrella association. We have only the TTP—Thief Thief Party.

Oluwatoyin Adepoju

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Feb 5, 2023, 7:13:06 PM2/5/23
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Cornelius Hamelberg

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Feb 6, 2023, 7:12:44 AM2/6/23
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Sobering indeed, especially for the inebriated. We must  not give in to despair and frustration 

It is out of the fullness of the heart ( the seat of the intellect) that Ojogbon Falola has spoken

As Mr Eliot put it, “the human soul, in intense emotion, strives to express itself in verse

Reality: 

“No reason to get excited”, the thief, he kindly spoke

“There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke

But you and I, we've been through that, and this is not our fate

So let us not talk falsely, the hour is getting late”

The Eighth Commandment which reads “Thou shalt not steal” and the Quran’s prohibitions against stealing have to be drafted into the Constitution and the Criminal code. As a consequence, crime has to be followed by punishment, in order to establish the rule of law, otherwise, it will be mere anarchy  - a free-for-all in which for example, as just reported,  we are experiencing live and direct, a situation in which we have “terrorists carting away truckloads of the new naira “ whilst the law-abiding are suffering, not smiling 

The country has to produce honest, well-trained judges and no one can disagree with Ojogbon’s diagnosis, that no nation can afford to have the mafia in charge of political parties, the military and the police…

Salimonu Kadiri

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Feb 9, 2023, 5:53:07 PM2/9/23
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Nigeria does not have political parties .... It has a band of thieves who come together under an umbrella association - Professor Toyin Falola.

Once again, the grassroot professor who is always on the side of the masses has spoken the truth and I agree with him totally. Choosing amongst Nigerian politicians of whatever political acronyms is like choosing between pick-pockets and armed robbers. Both the pick-pockets and armed robbers are thieves but the former is operationally less dangerous and less harmful to humans than the latter. Left with no better option and forced to choose between two evils, one should choose the less dangerous and harmful.

Is it true that Tinubu's strategy is hitched on identification with Buhari, Toyin Adepoju asked? The onus is on the person making the assertion to prove Tinubu's strategy of identifying with the person of Buhari, the current President in the APC controlled federal government of Nigeria. Even then, it has to be proved that identifying with the person of Buhari translates to identifying with his political actions. The question is even unwarranted since Toyin Adepoju self concluded, "Emilokan speech signalled Tinubu's independence from Buhari ..." 

Furthermore, Toyin Adepoju asked, "Do the Northern Muslim share such an orientation ( of the Northern Governors that the party's Presidential platform should go to the South)?" Answer to that question requires that the governors had conducted consultative plebiscites among their subjects before deciding to back-up Tinubu. In the absent of such plebiscites, it is more reasonable to assume that the governors acted according to what they believed to be the wish of their electorates in respect of zoning the presidency to the South.

Whatever one might think of that argument, it remains true that the'emilokan' speech is double edge, Adepoju wrote. From his own kind of truth, Toyin Adepoju proceeded to give plastic rubber elongation of  what 'emi lokan' as deployed by Tinubu implies. One edge of the meaning of 'emi lokan' according to Toyin Adepoju is "Its the turn of the SW by implication myself, bcs of the support which we in the SW and I, in particular, gave in enabling Buhari's Presidency after he had given up all hope of becoming President, that being the core of the speech." If Tinubu had wanted to say, 'it's the turn of South West' in Yoruba in his address to his Yoruba audience, he would have said, àwa lókàn. Since other Yoruba people like him were vying to be presidential flag bearer of the APC, he told his Yoruba audience and fellow competitors that he was number in the queue, thus, 'emi lokan.' It's so simple to comprehend unless one intentionally wants to feign ignorance. 

While Toyin Adepoju is clamouring about the age of Tinubu others are clamouring about his ethnic origin, Yoruba, and his religious faith, of being one-quarter Muslim!! The important issue of how Nigerians must be governed should not be reduced to age, religion, and ethnicity which, apparently, are wrong diagnoses and wrong prescriptions to Nigeria's industrial and economic ailments. If young age were to be the sole determinant of a good government, General Yakubu Gowon was 32 years of age when he became military head of state in Nigeria from August 1, 1966 until August 1975 when he was overthrown after nine years in power. There was no evidence that he stole from the State but the nation receded economically. Olusegun Obasanjo was 39 years of age when he became head of State in 1976 and the only legacy he left was the land use Act, through which he appropriated to himself vast area of land all around Nigeria for agriculture in addition to decreeing to himself fat pension benefits. He came back as a civilian President in 1999 at the age of 62 and Obasanjo and his vice privatised Nigeria's national assets worth $100billion to themselves and cronies at a total sum of $5billion. They invested $16 billion in electricity that ended up generating and distributing darkness to Nigerians. General Ibrahim Babangida was 44 years old when he stole power to rule Nigeria in 1985 and by the time he was forced to step aside in 1993, after 8 years in power, the economy of the nation was in ruin. His successor, General Sani Abacha usurped power to govern Nigeria when he was 50 years old and one of his first measure was to appoint Dr Pius Okigbo to enquire into what happened to the $12.4 billion accrued to Nigeria from crude oil export bonanza during Gulf war. Dr Okigbo reported how Babangida lavished the money on luxuries including the Hill mansion in Mina which experts said he could not have had resources to build such a mansion even if he had been saving all his salaries as a soldier and drinking only water to survive. General Abacha kept Okigbo's report on Babangida in abeyance while learning how to perfect his own style of treasury looting. Death removed Abacha from power before the then 56 years old General Abdulsalami Abubakar took over power in June 1998. The following year, he handed over power to a retired military-turned civilian, Olusegun Obasanjo, in 1999. Young Nigerian Generals ruled Nigeria, stole, plundered the treasury and ruined the nation. Elements from the most disciplined institution in Nigeria, the armed forces, perpetrated the greatest economic indiscipline ever known in human history. I leave it as an exercise to my readers to find out the ages of Governors, national assembly law makers and state assemblies law makers so as to prove if young age has any positive effect on the way they think and act on national economic policies. 

Ethnic Nigerian Christians and Muslims are not tied together by God/Jesus, Allah/Mohammed but by money. Their prayers always make public funds disappear into their private bank accounts which they often attribute to God's/Allah's blessing. Being a Nigerian Christian or Muslim worshipper, especially among political elites, has nothing to do with, good character/behaviour, hard work or righteousness. They start every official meeting by chanting prayers with Biblical and Qur'anic citations and end up awarding contracts, which are not intended to be executed after collecting payments, to themselves and their cronies. Christian and Muslim Nigerian politicians of all ethnic groups are all united when stealing the masses into impoverishment. An example will suffice here. Orji Uzor Kalu was a young Christian Igbo man of 39 years of age when he became governor of Abia State, in 1999. After his 8 years tenure as governor expired in 2007 at the age of 47, the EFCC arrested and charged him to court for stealing N7.2 billion belonging to the people of Abia State. He was remanded in custody until he could fulfil his bail conditions. Similarly, Saminu Turaki was a young Muslim Hausa/Fulani man of 36 years of age in 1999 when he became governor of Jigawa State in 1999. After his 8 years tenure as governor expired in 2007 and at the age of 44, the EFCC arrested and charged him to court for stealing N36 billion belonging to the people of Jigawa. He was also remanded in custody pending his fulfilment of bail conditions. Both Kalu and Turaki became cell mates. While Kalu got people to perfect his bail conditions and was subsequently released pending trial, Turaki appeared to have governed into his pocket alone while in office, so there was no one to arrange his bailout. Kalu the Igbo Christians got an Igbo monarch in Aba to arrange for the fulfilment of the Hausa-Muslim Turaki's bail conditions. So, whether Tinubu as Muslim can recite any portion of the Qur'an or not is politically inconsequential since Nigeria is governed  by a constitution and enacted laws and not with the combined contents of the Bible and Qur'an.

Intellectual seers have prophesised/professed that northerners shall not vote for Tinubu and insinuated that the hope of Tinubu to rig election in the North with the help of Northern governors will be dashed because of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System(BVAS) now in use and which exposed overvoting in the Osun gubernatorial election of 16 July 2022. Choleric and unthinking professors are now making it appear as if the APC was the rigging party in Osun gubernatorial election, but it was not. It was Buhari, APC president of Nigeria who signed into law the Electoral Act 2022 whereby INEC is compelled to conduct elections electronically with BVAS. Electoral Act, 2022, Section 51 (2) says that overvoting occurs "where the number of votes cast at an election in any polling unit exceeds the number of accredited voters in that polling unit." In that circumstance, "the presiding officer shall cancel the result of the election in that polling unit." Collation and Returning Officers are required by Section 64 of the Electoral Act 2022, in subsections 4, 5, 6,7,8, to cross-check results and if fraud is detected to cancel the inflated results. On Sunday, 17 July 2022, INEC declared Ademola Adeleke of the PDP winner of Saturday, 16 July 2022, Osun governorship election. Ten days after the official declaration of Adeleke as Governor elect, the APC applied and received from INEC copies of Bimodal Voters Report (BVR) on 27 July 2022. There, APC lawyers discovered that number of votes exceeded number of accredited voters in several polling units. Thereafter, INEC issued another BVR to the PDP containing less overvoting in a deliberate bid to partially adjust the figures in the BVR previously issued to APC. How could INEC issue two different BVR ten days after it had declared a winner in the Osun governorship election?

It has been suggested, and it is absolutely believable, that the cabal in the presidency had compromised some of the INEC's electoral officers to influence the results of the gubernatorial election in Osun State in favour of PDP so as to reduce the influence of Tinubu in APC. If the Collation and Returning Officers at the Osun governorship election had not been compromised they would have acted in accordance with the provisions of Subsections 4,5,6,7,8 of Section 64 of the Electoral Act 2022. Having failed to comply with the aforesaid provisions of the Electoral Act 2022, Section 64 (9) of the Electoral Act stipulates that, "Returning Officer or Collation Officer, as the case may be, commits an offence, if he or she intentionally collates or announces a false result and is liable on conviction to a fine of N5,000,000 (N5 million) or imprisonment for a term of at least three years or both." By issuing two different BVRs on the same election, the election tribunal observed that INEC officials tampered with the result of the election by covering up overvoting they wilfully permitted. Since APC is the victim of overvoting in Osun governorship election as exposed by BVAS/BVR at the election tribunal, it is wrong for prophetical professors and intellectual seers to imply that Tinubu's APC intends to deploy Northern Governors to rig presidential election for him but BVAS/BVR  will stop him.


Sent: 06 February 2023 11:28

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Oluwatoyin Adepoju

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Feb 10, 2023, 4:08:39 AM2/10/23
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Thanks.

Tinubu stated ''its the turn of the SW, and in the SW I am  the most qualified.''

The Islamic issue is not so much about religion per se as the fears aroused by the militarization of Islam and Fulani ethnicity by the Buhari govt and Miyetti Allah.

The age issue is about fears of returning to a Buhari situation, in which the President spends a good part of his tenure in hospital. There are also fears of a Yaradua/GEJ situation in which Shettima becomes President. 

Interesting analysis on the Oshun election.

thanks

toyin


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