Playbook: SCOTUS has entered the 2024 chat

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

JUST POSTED — “How Mark Meadows Became the Least Trusted Man in Washington,” by Robert Draper in NYT Magazine: “Court documents that remain under seal but whose contents I’m familiar with confirm that [MARK] MEADOWS did in fact receive an immunity order, signed on March 20, 2023, by Chief Judge JAMES E. BOASBERG of the District Court in Washington, to testify before a federal grand jury three days later. … Meadows did not simply honor a subpoena request with a single obligatory interview with federal prosecutors; rather, he spoke expansively to them and then, the next day, testified before the grand jury for approximately six hours.”

RED ALERT — “Democrats sound alarm, take action against Biden’s third-party threats,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer: “The Democratic National Committee hired a new communications adviser last month to counter the third-party candidates, while outside groups working for Biden’s election have been having discussions about a new organization that could coordinate about the wide range of threats. … Democrats are particularly concerned about the impact of third parties on their base of young and Black voters in swing states.”

A TIME FOR CHOOSING — At 10 a.m, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, the historic case about whether the former president is permitted on the primary ballot in Colorado.

The case is narrowly about the interpretation of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, but today will mark the first time the nine justices will appear in public discussing January 6, DONALD TRUMP and the 2024 presidential election. (And also the Civil War.)

It won’t be the last. By Monday, Trump will likely ask the court to decide whether to halt one of his pending criminal trials and decide whether he is immune from criminal prosecution, a claim now rejected by both the district and appeals courts overseeing the election subversion case in Washington. That will be another monumental decision. If the court acts swiftly, there will still be enough time for a Trump trial before Election Day.

Of course, the court’s recent opinions have already colored this election. The 2022 Dobbs decision remains an engine for Democratic activism and turnout around the country. This year, in an election that could come down to a few suburbs in a few counties, abortion rights might be the decisive issue.

In sifting through the legal takes and talking to the legal pundits, we hear a few common theories come up about how the justices are approaching today’s case:

— Desperate for an off ramp: The most common view is that the justices, or at least the conservative majority, hate this case and are enormously uncomfortable with having to decide such a politically fraught issue as whether or not the likely Republican nominee is eligible to hold office. It then follows that they will strive to craft the narrowest possible decision, one that preserves the status quo (Trump can run) without making any groundbreaking precedents. For a court trying to shake off accusations of overt partisanship and concerns that it suffers from a crisis of legitimacy, this is clearly the easy way out. (Josh Gerstein lays out all the ways the “justices could try to wriggle out of a definitive ruling.”)

— MAGA justices: A more cynical view — one more common on the left and among Democrats who remember Bush v. Gore — holds that the six conservatives, three of whom were nominated by Trump, will take their cues from Trump’s briefs and issue an opinion that vindicates him and perhaps even bolsters his election and helps him return to the White House.

— #NeverTrumpers: This is another version of the belief that the SCOTUS majority is political and outcome-driven — but with a twist. If JOHN ROBERTS, CLARENCE THOMAS, SAMUEL ALITO, NEIL GORSUCH, BRETT KAVANAUGH and AMY CONEY BARRETT really are just Republicans in robes, maybe they — or at least three of them — will conclude that what’s best for the GOP is to make sure that Trump is never able to run for office again. (h/t to our legal editor, James Romoser, for helping with these.)

What about the actual merits of the case? Josh Gerstein runs down the six key questions that the justices will have to wrestle with today:

  1. Does the insurrection clause apply to Trump?
  2. Was Jan. 6 an insurrection?
  3. Did Trump “engage” in insurrection?
  4. Does Congress need to pass a law to define who is disqualified from office under the 14th Amendment?
  5. Does knocking Trump off the ballot abridge free speech?
  6. Was the 14th Amendment really only about the Civil War?

Follow POLITICO’s SCOTUS live blog starting at 9 a.m. Listen live to the oral arguments at 10 a.m.

Related reads: “Democrats are nowhere to be seen ahead of 14th Amendment SCOTUS case,” by Zach Montellaro and Anthony Adragna … “What the Law Says in 3 Cases That Could Decide Trump’s Fate,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak … “Supreme Court hears landmark election case seeking to kick Trump off ballot over Capitol attack,” by AP’s Mark Sherman

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

COMING ATTRACTIONS — “Special counsel has finished Biden classified docs probe — but has rebuffed witness requests to review report,” by ABC’s Mike Levine, Lucien Bruggeman, Alexander Mallin, and Pierre Thomas: “Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND has informed the leaders of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees that special counsel ROBERT HUR has concluded his investigation … [There’s] growing concern among [President JOE] BIDEN’s closest aides — and the attorneys representing them — that Hur’s report could be substantially critical of Biden.”

NEXT WEEK’S SPECIAL ELECTION — “The Race to Replace George Santos Could Predict 2024,” by Mark Chiusano in Woodbury, New York, for POLITICO Magazine. … “Migrant Crisis Complicates Democrats’ Bid to Regain George Santos’s Seat,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos

THE RETALIATION CONTINUES — “U.S. kills senior leader of Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah in strike in Iraq, says senior U.S. official,” by CBS’ Eleanor Watson

GIRLFRIEND, YOU ARE SO OFF — MARIANNE WILLIAMSON dropped out of the presidential race last night after failing to gain traction in her bid against Biden, ABC’s Brittany Shepherd and Isabella Murray scooped.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at noon and take up the national security supplemental without immigration/border measures attached. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN will testify before the Banking Committee at 9 a.m. The Commerce Committee will mark up the FAA reauthorization bill at 10 a.m. Pharma CEOs will testify before the HELP Committee about prescription drug prices at 10 a.m.

The House is out.

3 things to watch …

  1. Biden will deliver his customary annual remarks to House Democrats this afternoon at their policy retreat in Northern Virginia. These speeches, delivered on camera, tend to be rah-rah, low-news-value affairs. But the questions that follow from members — with cameras turned off — can be quite revealing. We’re curious, in particular, if he gets pressed on his next steps in the Middle East.
  2. House GOP leaders haven’t yet announced when they’ll attempt a revote on the impeachment of DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS. But Democratic leaders warned their members yesterday the redo could come as soon as Tuesday — the same day Republicans are at risk of losing another seat, in the New York special election.
  3. Harvard University is again in the congressional crosshairs: House Education and Workforce Chair VIRGINIA FOXX (R-N.C.) yesterday threatened the institution with a subpoena, accusing it of withholding documents requested as part of the panel’s investigation into campus antisemitism. Harvard says it is cooperating; Foxx gave it until Feb. 14 to more fully comply. More from NYT

At the White House

Biden will head to Leesburg, Virginia, to speak at the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference at 4 p.m. at the Lansdowne Resort.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and have internal meetings with staff.

PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

UKRAINE U-TURN — In the end, just four Senate Republicans voted to keep the big border/foreign aid bill alive yesterday as it flamed out in spectacular fashion, with most of the GOP having decided that its conservative immigration policies weren’t conservative enough. And though there was ample criticism flying around — including a spat between Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) and MAGA talk radio personality JESSE KELLY — attention quickly turned to whether Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL might be able to muster support for a foreign aid-only bill to help Ukraine, Israel and more.

It could be close. Schumer, who’d initially planned for a vote yesterday, pushed it to tomorrow to give Republicans more time to get on board. A procedural vote passed 58-41 — but final passage will need at least two Republicans to flip to yes to clear the 60-vote threshold for the next one. Democrats are worried that Trump and political pressures will torpedo the effort yet, Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano report.

The Senate GOP’s contortions are almost comical: Having first rejected the immigration-and-foreign-aid bill for its immigration portion, some senators are now demanding immigration amendment votes for the foreign aid-only bill — even though some hard-line provisions won’t likely pass.

The stakes are high for Kyiv: Biden told donors yesterday that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN “is on the balls of his heels” and Ukraine’s Western backers can’t let up now, per Bloomberg. If new U.S. funding doesn’t pass, the Biden administration will search for Plan Bs — but “there is nothing on the horizon that could match the power of a new, $60 billion congressional appropriation,” NYT’s David Sanger reports.

Meanwhile on immigration, the White House clearly sees the surprising opening for a narrative reset: It’s weighing new executive action to disincentivize illegal immigration that amounts to a Plan B of its own, NBC’s Julia Ainsley and Monica Alba scooped.

HEADS UP — “Johnson considers new vote on spy powers for next week,” by Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers: “The bill under discussion would largely align with legislation rolled out last year by the House Intelligence Committee … Judiciary Committee members and other privacy hawks would then be allowed to offer amendments.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

MORE IMMIGRATION FILES — “Leaked Border Patrol numbers show illegal immigrant arrests dropped 50% from December to January,” by the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli

— “Deportation Flights From the U.S. to Venezuela in Limbo,” by NYT’s Annie Correal, Genevieve Glatsky and Hamed Aleaziz

SINGING FROM A DIFFERENT HYMNAL — “Blinken Sees Room for Israel-Hamas Deal as Netanyahu Balks,” by Bloomberg’s Peter Martin and Alisa Odenheimer

WHAT WENT WRONG — “Intel officials warned well before Tower 22 attack of increased risks from drones,” by Lara Seligman and Erin Banco: U.S. officials in the fall “claimed that it was only a matter of time before one of the Iranian-made drones targeting American forces in the region got through U.S. air defense systems and caused fatalities.”

ALL POLITICS

WHAT’S RONNA GONNA DO? — After the NYT reported that RONNA McDANIEL plans to step down as RNC chair amid a(nother) Trump takeover of the party, McDaniel told party members yesterday that she remains “hard at work,” NBC’s Matt Dixon and Henry Gomez scooped. Multiple outlets published some contradictory reporting indicating that her departure — or at least its specific timing after the South Carolina primary — may not be a done deal yet.

But the big picture is clear: McDaniel is expected to leave by the spring, our colleagues Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw report this morning. And in the end, perhaps what’s most surprising is that she’s held on this long. “[T]he laws of gravity in modern Republican politics affect all,” they write: “Trump sours on basically everyone.” Despite emerging as an exemplar of how the Republican establishment bent to Trump — even dropping her family name of “Romney” from her public name at his behest — McDaniel ultimately wasn’t compliant enough to hang on. “Her legacy is already the topic of intraparty debate,” including the party’s electoral and fundraising struggles.

DISLIKE MIKE — Meredith Lee Hill writes in about the storm clouds gathering around Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.): A fundraising powerhouse whom fellow Republicans have described as “whip smart” but also “incredibly risk-averse” and “extremely deliberative,” Gallagher has thus far managed to dominate in his northeast Wisconsin district and keep recent primary challenges at bay.

But his vote against impeaching DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS might be just enough to embolden Trump-aligned Republicans who have been waiting in the wings. “He is always on the edge in his district,” said one Wisconsin Republican granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. “The only reason he doesn’t have a primary opponent is because he’s managed, just barely, to not fall off the edge, and because he raises really big money.” To wit: GOP consultant ALEX BRUESEWITZ is considering a primary challenge, The Hill’s Caroline Vakil scooped.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Brady PAC is backing Democratic Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN’s Senate campaign in Michigan. The endorsement comes just a few days before the anniversary of last year’s mass shooting at Michigan State University, which is in Slotkin’s House district, and follows similar support for Slotkin from Giffords.

More top reads:

MEDIAWATCH

FEAST — “The New York Times made more than $1 billion from digital subscriptions in 2023,” by Nieman Lab’s Sarah Scire

FAMINE — “Help ex-Messenger Employees Left Without Severance,” GoFundMe

2024 WATCH

REELECT MAKING MOVES — The Biden campaign is keeping up a busy schedule this month, raising big money and conferring with allies. Biden yesterday hit several NYC fundraisers and events that included hosts MICHAEL SONNENFELDT, STEVE RATTNER, RAMON TALLAJ and LARRY LINDEN, report Bloomberg’s Justin Sink and Jennifer Jacobs, who run down many of the other big names. ROBERT DE NIRO and New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL were in attendance. And Biden teed off on a variety of political topics, per pool reports, including Republicans’ treatment of Lankford: “They really threw the man overboard.”

Biden will have more such opportunities later this month in California, when he’s planning a fundraising swing through LA and the Bay Area, the L.A. Times’ Benjamin Oreskes reports. Hosts could tentatively include ROBERT and DANIELLE KLEIN, STEVE WESTLY, and HAIM SABAN.

Meanwhile, Harris is bringing together several Democratic governors at the VP’s residence Saturday to talk 2024, CNN’s Isaac Dovere reports. Though ANDY BESHEAR, TIM WALZ, J.B. PRITZKER, GRETCHEN WHITMER, TONY EVERS, JOSH SHAPIRO, ROY COOPER, WES MOORE and MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM were all invited weeks ago, some still haven’t confirmed.

One meeting that will be considerably tougher: A range of top administration figures are going to Michigan today to meet with Arab American and Muslim leaders, amid deep anger about Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, CNN’s Arlette Saenz, Betsy Klein, Dianne Gallagher and Khalil Abdallah report. They’ll be talking about the conflict and the community’s issues, though the specter of November — and Biden’s vulnerability in Michigan if these voters desert him — will loom politically. USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER, JON FINER, STEVE BENJAMIN, TOM PEREZ, MAZEN BASRAWI and more are heading there.

TRUMP CARDS

FANI WILLIS’ MESS — “Fani Willis seeks to kill subpoenas as battle over alleged wrongdoing continues,” by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s David Wickert

NOT EVEN CLOSE — “Judge criticizes Trump’s midtrial mistrial request in E. Jean Carroll defamation case,” by AP’s Larry Neumeister

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

BIG ONE TO WATCH — The conservative Florida Supreme Court yesterday heard arguments over whether an abortion rights measure can be placed on the ballot this year, and justices had tough questions for both sides, the Tampa Bay Times’ Romy Ellenbogen reports.

PLAYBOOKERS

Ronny Jackson has some specific ideas about how to handle Chip Roy.

Al Franken will play a U.S. senator from Washington state in Netflix’s “The Residence.”

Joe Lockhart has registered as a foreign agent for a Saudi sovereign wealth fund.

Dave Min was targeted by drunk driving attack ads funded by AIPAC’s super PAC.

Matthew McConaughey wants more funding for federal school safety grants.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party for the new book by Charles Roxburgh (aka Charles R. Marlow), “The Helios Deception” ($19.99), hosted at Adrienne Arsht’s house Tuesday night: Margaret Brennan, Amy Ricchetti, Francesca Craig, Ed Luce, Susan Blumenthal, Capricia Marshall, Eric Motley, Sam Feist, New Zealand Ambassador Bede Corry, Helen Milby, Ruth Marcus, Meg Beyer, Margaret Carlson and Alexandra de Borchgrave.

— The McCain Institute hosted a dinner for members of its Ukraine Business Alliance at Oyamel, featuring a discussion on private investment in Ukraine with Scott Nathan moderated by Evelyn Farkas. SPOTTED: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Rita Balogh, Tyson Barker, Phil Bednarczyk, Julie Bulgrin, Marjorie Chorlins, Amy English, Rachel Levitan, Roger Murry, Volodya Muzylov, Alex Meek-Holmes, Tom Melia, Chris Saenger and Mehek Sethi.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Beth Tritter is now a partner in FGS Global’s government affairs division. She most recently was director of the Covid-19 response team at USAID.

— Nidhi Hegde will be interim executive director of the American Economic Liberties Project. She most recently was managing director.

TRANSITIONS — Josh Paul is now a non-resident fellow at Democracy for the Arab World Now. He previously was a director at the State Department, from which he publicly resigned in protest over the U.S. handling of the Israel-Hamas war. … Tai Sims is now comms director at the Nevada Democratic Party. He previously was comms manager for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and comms adviser for Brandon Presley’s Mississippi gubernatorial campaign. … Kevin Gallagher has left his role as senior adviser to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, for whom he coordinated the Internet for All rollout and was the top adviser on broadband and workforce development. He’s taking a break to travel and spend time with family. …

… Kelsi Browning is launching Front Row Strategies, a political consulting and PR firm for Democratic/progressive candidates and causes. She most recently was at the Clyde Group, and is an Amy Klobuchar and Hillary Clinton campaign alum. … Saana Allie is now a senior manager at Outreach Strategists, expanding its operations into the federal government sector. She was previously a business development manager at BerlinRosen.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.) and John Joyce (R-Pa.) … Amos Snead … Vox’s Zack Beauchamp … Will Levi … American Economic Liberties Project’s Matt Stoller … Caitlin Webber Mazzucca … Hudson Institute’s John Walters, Michael Pillsbury and Sarah May Stern … Boehringer Ingelheim’s Scott Bennett … Anduril Industries’ Matthew Haskins … Brian Katulis … USAID’s Adam Kaplan … John Kartch … Marlene Cooper Vasilic … Mark Corallo … Dy Brown ... Julie Gunlock … Mansie Hough … POLITICO’s Arnau Busquets Guàrdia … Jenny Thalheimer Rosenberg … Heather Zichal ... Joe Briggs ... Bill Ruch … former EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson … Ted Koppel … Layla Moughari … Ana Fraisse of the American Cleaning Institute

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