The overall modeling work and data analysis that has been traditionally performed by DFR is transitioning to the Health Department.
The Health Department is in the process of determining what elements of DFR’s modeling will continue. For the near term at least, the Covid-19 Surveillance Report is the key public-facing document for COVID data.
Additionally, the regional heat map is no longer being produced.
Past COVID Modeling Presentations
Vermont modeling was used to help prepare the State's response to COVID-19 and guide policy decisions.
Below are modeling presentation slidedecks:
- May 3, 2022
- April 26, 2022
- April 19, 2022
- April 12, 2022 (Revised)
- April 5, 2022
- March 29, 2022
- March 22, 2022
- March 15, 2022
- March 8, 2022
- March 2, 2022
- February 22, 2022 (Abridged)
- February 15, 2022
- February 8, 2022
- February 1, 2022
- January 25, 2022
- January 19, 2022
- January 11, 2022 (Presentation Slides)
- January 4, 2022
- December 28, 2021
- December 21, 2021
- December 14, 2021
- December 7, 2021
- November 30, 2021
- November 23, 2021
- November 16, 2021
- November 9, 2021
- November 2, 2021
- October 26, 2021
- October 19, 2021 (Revised)
- October 12, 2021 (Revised)
- October 5, 2021 (Revised)
- September 28, 2021 (Revised)
- September 21, 2021
- September 14, 2021
- September 8, 2021
- August 31, 2021
- August 24, 2021
- August 17, 2021
- August 10, 2021
- August 3, 2021
- July 27, 2021
- July 20, 2021
- July 13, 2021
- July 6, 2021
- June 29, 2021
- June 22, 2021
- June 15, 2021
- June 8, 2021
- June 1, 2021
- May 25, 2021
- May 18, 2021
- May 11, 2021
- May 4, 2021
- April 27, 2021
- April 20, 2021
- April 13, 2021
- April 6, 2021
- April 2, 2021 (Friday Presentation)
- March 30, 2021
- March 23, 2021
- March 16, 2021
- March 9, 2021
- March 2, 2021
- February 23, 2021
- February 16, 2021
- February 9, 2021
- February 2, 2021
- January 27, 2021
- January 19, 2021
- January 12, 2021
- January 5, 2021
- December 29, 2020
- December 22, 2020
- December 15, 2020
- December 8, 2020
- December 2, 2020
- November 24, 2020
- November 17, 2020
- November 10, 2020
- November 3, 2020
- October 27, 2020
- October 20, 2020
- October 13, 2020
- October 6, 2020
- September 29, 2020
- September 22, 2020 (New reporting day: Tuesday)
- September 18, 2020
- September 11, 2020
- September 4, 2020
- August 28, 2020
- August 21, 2020
- August 14, 2020
- August 7, 2020
- July 31, 2020
- July 24, 2020
- July 17, 2020
- July 10, 2020
- July 2, 2020
- June 26, 2020
- June 19, 2020
- June 12, 2020
- June 5, 2020
- May 29, 2020
- May 22, 2020
- May 15, 2020
- May 8, 2020
- May 1, 2020
- April 24, 2020
- April 17, 2020
- April 10, 2020
- April 6, 2020
Modeling Materials
The State of Vermont is working with a number of infectious disease experts to most accurately forecast the impact of COVID-19 on our state.
Below is a description of methods, Vermont specific models and interactive online models.
Oliver Wyman
Helen Leis
- COVID-19 Primer (Updated April 16, 2020)
- Oliver Wyman Interactive Model (Includes Methodology)
Columbia University
Professor Jeffrey Shaman
- Columbia University White Paper (Includes Methodology)
- Vermont Models:
Northeastern University
Professor Alessandro Vespignani
- Northeastern University White Paper (Includes Methodology)
- Vermont Model:
- Northeastern University Interactive Model
- Modeling the impact of social distancing
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
- IHME White Paper (Includes Methodology)
- IHME Interactive Model
Modeling Partners in the News
Jeffrey Shaman, Columbia University
- Washington Post: “States rushing to reopen are likely making a deadly error, coronavirus models and experts warn” - April 22, 2020
- CNN: “America's 'new normal' will be anything but ordinary” - April 17, 2020
- Wired: “The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus” - March 30, 2020
- Slate: “Making Outbreak Models: How do you plan for all the possibilities?” - Podcast - March 23, 2020
- New York Times: “Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S. Without Urgent Action, Estimates Say” - March 20, 2020
- Science: “Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)” - March 16, 2020
- Wired: "How Much Is a Human Life Actually Worth?" May 11, 2020
- NBC: "Meet the Press" - May 10, 2020
- Philadelphia Inquirer: "How long immunity lasts after a coronavirus infection and what that means for vaccines" - May 10, 2020
-
The New York Times: "Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show" - May 20, 2020
Alessandro Vespignani, Northeastern University
- New York Times: "How the Virus Won" -
- Chicago Tribune: “Hidden coronavirus outbreaks spread through cities like Chicago, New York far earlier than Americans knew, researchers say”- April 23, 2020
- New York Times: “What 5 Coronavirus Models Say the Next Month Will Look Like” - April 22, 2020
- CBS Boston: “Northeastern Researcher Helps CDC Predict Coronavirus Spread With Mapping Technology” - February 27, 2020
- The Atlantic "You’ll Probably Never Know If You Had the Coronavirus in January" - May 8, 2020
- >Anderson Cooper, CNN: "Coronavirus Pandemic" - April, 23, 2020
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- Newsweek: “These are the States that have Flattened the Coronavirus Curve” - April 23, 2020
- Forbes: “Coronavirus Model Used By White House Predicts 10% Increase In Death Toll” - April 22, 2020
- ABC: “Explaining why coronavirus death toll predictions are improving” - April 11, 2020
- Washington Post: “A leading model now estimates tens of thousands fewer covid-19 deaths by summer” - April 8, 2020
- The Verge: “The Best Graphs and Data for Tracking the Coronavirus Pandemic” - April 2, 2020
- CNN: "Predicted Covid-19 US death toll keeps rising with states reopening and more people moving around" - May 11, 2020
- Reuters: "U.S. coronavirus death forecast climbs as states reopen" - May 10, 2020
- Axios: "Key virus modeler says rise in mobility is driving up death projection" - May 10, 2020