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Cross-Tabs for October 2022 Times/Siena Poll of Likely Voters

These cross-tabs show responses among the likely electorate. View topline results and cross-tabs for registered voters.

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Right track

24%

28%

24%

22%

27%

25%

24%

30%

21%

21%

32%

43%

27%

16%

27%

35%

21%

19%

30%

24%

21%

45%

4%

46%

5%

24%

Wrong direction

64%

61%

62%

71%

61%

66%

63%

59%

68%

68%

52%

44%

62%

74%

63%

56%

68%

67%

54%

65%

71%

39%

93%

35%

91%

67%

[VOLUNTEERED] Don’t know/Refused

11%

11%

14%

8%

12%

9%

13%

11%

11%

11%

16%

13%

11%

10%

10%

9%

11%

14%

16%

11%

8%

16%

2%

19%

4%

9%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Thinking ahead to the November general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Almost certain

60%

41%

60%

63%

69%

64%

58%

66%

57%

63%

56%

43%

68%

59%

56%

67%

64%

55%

59%

61%

60%

61%

65%

60%

57%

63%

Very likely

31%

41%

33%

30%

23%

28%

33%

29%

32%

30%

27%

48%

28%

31%

32%

23%

29%

39%

33%

28%

33%

30%

30%

31%

34%

30%

Somewhat likely

4%

10%

5%

4%

2%

4%

4%

3%

5%

3%

5%

8%

2%

3%

4%

6%

4%

2%

4%

5%

3%

4%

2%

4%

4%

4%

Not very likely

1%

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

Not at all likely

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

4%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Already voted

2%

1%

-

1%

5%

1%

3%

1%

2%

2%

5%

-

1%

2%

4%

1%

2%

-

1%

2%

1%

3%

1%

4%

1%

<.5%

[VOL] DK/REF

1%

2%

-

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

2%

<.5%

-

1%

2%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

2%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

If this year’s elections for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district: [IF DON'T KNOW: If you had to decide today, would you lean toward …]

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

The Democratic candidate

45%

52%

50%

38%

48%

45%

47%

55%

39%

40%

78%

60%

52%

31%

42%

54%

43%

46%

63%

48%

32%

91%

2%

94%

2%

41%

The Republican candidate

49%

40%

41%

59%

48%

50%

47%

41%

54%

55%

18%

34%

45%

63%

52%

42%

51%

47%

32%

47%

62%

6%

95%

3%

95%

51%

[VOL] DK/REF

6%

8%

9%

3%

4%

5%

6%

4%

7%

5%

3%

6%

3%

6%

6%

5%

6%

7%

6%

6%

6%

4%

3%

2%

3%

8%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Strongly approve

18%

4%

12%

16%

26%

15%

21%

24%

14%

17%

31%

15%

23%

12%

17%

23%

18%

15%

18%

21%

14%

38%

1%

43%

-

12%

Somewhat approve

21%

34%

25%

20%

16%

21%

20%

26%

17%

18%

33%

32%

24%

12%

17%

23%

22%

21%

29%

21%

14%

39%

2%

38%

4%

21%

Somewhat disapprove

13%

36%

22%

6%

8%

14%

13%

11%

15%

10%

17%

23%

10%

10%

13%

8%

10%

23%

17%

12%

12%

14%

9%

10%

8%

22%

Strongly disapprove

45%

18%

36%

56%

47%

47%

42%

35%

51%

52%

12%

25%

38%

64%

50%

40%

48%

38%

29%

44%

56%

5%

88%

5%

87%

41%

[VOL] DK/REF

4%

9%

5%

2%

3%

3%

5%

4%

3%

3%

7%

5%

5%

1%

3%

7%

2%

3%

6%

2%

3%

4%

1%

4%

1%

4%

NET approve

39%

37%

38%

36%

42%

36%

40%

49%

31%

35%

64%

47%

47%

24%

33%

45%

40%

36%

48%

42%

28%

77%

3%

81%

4%

33%

NET disapprove

58%

54%

57%

62%

55%

61%

55%

47%

66%

62%

29%

48%

48%

74%

63%

48%

58%

61%

46%

56%

68%

19%

97%

15%

95%

63%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Very favorable

23%

9%

16%

25%

30%

22%

23%

14%

29%

26%

5%

15%

15%

35%

29%

17%

27%

17%

15%

19%

32%

2%

47%

3%

52%

15%

Somewhat favorable

20%

26%

25%

21%

14%

22%

19%

21%

20%

21%

6%

24%

22%

21%

15%

22%

21%

22%

13%

19%

25%

3%

40%

4%

30%

28%

Somewhat unfavorable

9%

17%

9%

9%

4%

12%

6%

8%

9%

8%

13%

10%

7%

8%

9%

6%

7%

11%

10%

9%

7%

7%

6%

6%

6%

13%

Very unfavorable

44%

43%

47%

40%

48%

41%

46%

55%

36%

43%

66%

41%

55%

33%

44%

49%

40%

45%

57%

48%

31%

85%

4%

83%

8%

41%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<.5%

-

-

-

-

<.5%

-

-

-

-

-

<.5%

-

-

-

-

-

<.5%

<.5%

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

[VOL] DK/REF

5%

5%

3%

5%

3%

4%

6%

3%

6%

2%

11%

9%

1%

3%

3%

6%

6%

4%

4%

5%

5%

4%

3%

4%

4%

4%

NET favorable

43%

35%

41%

46%

44%

44%

42%

35%

49%

47%

11%

39%

37%

56%

44%

39%

47%

39%

28%

39%

57%

4%

87%

7%

83%

42%

NET unfavorable

52%

60%

56%

49%

53%

52%

52%

63%

45%

51%

78%

51%

62%

42%

53%

56%

47%

57%

67%

57%

38%

91%

10%

89%

14%

53%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

I know it's a very long way away, but in the 2024 presidential primaries and caucuses do you think you will vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary, or are you unlikely to vote in a presidential primary or caucus?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Democratic primary

37%

40%

40%

30%

39%

32%

41%

45%

30%

31%

70%

48%

42%

22%

35%

43%

36%

34%

49%

38%

26%

74%

1%

89%

1%

20%

Republican primary

46%

37%

40%

54%

45%

49%

44%

40%

50%

53%

12%

31%

45%

59%

46%

38%

49%

48%

30%

44%

58%

8%

89%

2%

92%

45%

Unlikely to vote in primary

9%

11%

12%

7%

7%

13%

5%

9%

8%

9%

9%

5%

9%

8%

11%

9%

8%

8%

7%

10%

8%

8%

5%

4%

1%

22%

[VOL] DK/REF

9%

12%

8%

9%

9%

7%

11%

6%

11%

8%

9%

17%

4%

10%

8%

10%

8%

10%

14%

8%

8%

9%

5%

5%

6%

12%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

(Among those who plan to vote in the Republican primary) If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Donald Trump

47%

60%

39%

43%

55%

40%

55%

33%

55%

45%

53%

60%

31%

54%

50%

36%

52%

44%

46%

40%

53%

10%

54%

36%

53%

42%

Ron DeSantis [Duh-San-Tis]

28%

20%

37%

32%

20%

32%

23%

36%

23%

28%

13%

22%

37%

23%

28%

39%

24%

25%

15%

36%

24%

9%

30%

19%

25%

26%

Mike Pence

7%

7%

6%

4%

8%

8%

5%

8%

6%

7%

-

-

8%

7%

8%

5%

2%

12%

12%

3%

7%

33%

3%

26%

5%

9%

Ted Cruz

3%

5%

4%

4%

1%

3%

4%

5%

2%

3%

10%

8%

5%

2%

3%

1%

5%

2%

7%

2%

3%

-

3%

-

3%

3%

Nikki Haley

4%

3%

8%

2%

5%

7%

2%

7%

3%

4%

25%

9%

8%

1%

3%

5%

3%

7%

10%

5%

2%

29%

1%

-

2%

9%

Mike Pompeo [Paam-pay-ow]

2%

1%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

-

-

3%

3%

1%

3%

2%

2%

1%

4%

1%

7%

2%

-

3%

2%

[VOL] Someone else

1%

-

-

2%

2%

<.5%

3%

<.5%

2%

2%

-

-

1%

3%

1%

-

3%

-

-

1%

2%

-

2%

-

1%

<.5%

[VOL] DK/REF

8%

3%

3%

11%

7%

9%

7%

9%

7%

8%

-

1%

8%

8%

6%

10%

8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

12%

5%

19%

8%

7%

Number of respondents

332

28

67

132

92

181

149

149

180

259

9

28

115

142

69

60

129

74

56

127

149

27

257

6

214

87

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

18%

41%

29%

51%

49%

36%

63%

78%

2%

7%

30%

47%

22%

16%

36%

26%

15%

39%

46%

8%

81%

1%

62%

28%

 

Now thinking about the 2024 general election … if the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Joe Biden, the Democrat

44%

51%

46%

38%

47%

41%

46%

54%

36%

40%

73%

52%

52%

30%

39%

53%

40%

46%

55%

48%

31%

90%

1%

90%

3%

38%

Donald Trump, the Republican

45%

39%

39%

52%

44%

48%

42%

34%

52%

50%

12%

33%

37%

61%

46%

38%

50%

41%

28%

41%

59%

2%

94%

4%

89%

43%

[VOL] Another candidate

4%

5%

5%

4%

3%

5%

3%

4%

4%

4%

6%

5%

4%

3%

6%

4%

4%

3%

8%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

3%

6%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

4%

2%

6%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

4%

3%

5%

2%

2%

7%

5%

4%

3%

3%

2%

1%

4%

7%

[VOL] DK/REF

3%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

4%

3%

4%

3%

5%

4%

2%

3%

4%

3%

4%

3%

4%

4%

3%

2%

1%

2%

2%

6%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

[VOL] The economy (including jobs, stock market)

26%

28%

23%

32%

22%

31%

21%

22%

29%

25%

22%

37%

21%

29%

22%

29%

27%

26%

21%

28%

27%

15%

36%

17%

35%

26%

[VOL] Inflation or the cost of living

18%

18%

23%

16%

15%

19%

17%

15%

20%

19%

17%

12%

16%

21%

20%

19%

19%

14%

13%

20%

20%

16%

22%

17%

23%

14%

[VOL] Abortion

5%

10%

4%

6%

5%

1%

9%

5%

6%

3%

6%

7%

4%

3%

7%

4%

2%

9%

5%

5%

6%

9%

3%

8%

2%

7%

[VOL] Immigration

5%

2%

1%

5%

11%

3%

7%

4%

7%

7%

2%

3%

5%

9%

5%

3%

6%

6%

4%

5%

7%

1%

10%

1%

12%

4%

[VOL] Crime

3%

<.5%

-

3%

5%

1%

4%

1%

3%

3%

2%

3%

1%

4%

2%

4%

3%

2%

4%

2%

2%

2%

4%

2%

5%

1%

[VOL] Gun policies

1%

4%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

2%

<.5%

4%

6%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

-

2%

[VOL] health care

1%

1%

3%

1%

-

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

-

1%

2%

-

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

2%

<.5%

2%

[VOL] Education

1%

3%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

-

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

-

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

[VOL] Foreign policy

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

2%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

-

1%

[VOL] Russia/war in Ukraine

2%

1%

2%

<.5%

4%

3%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

2%

[VOL] China

<.5%

-

<.5%

-

<.5%

-

1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

-

-

<.5%

1%

<.5%

-

1%

<.5%

-

<.5%

<.5%

1%

-

[VOL] Climate change

3%

5%

10%

1%

<.5%

3%

3%

5%

2%

3%

<.5%

2%

4%

2%

2%

3%

1%

7%

3%

4%

2%

5%

<.5%

5%

-

4%

[VOL] Coronavirus

<.5%

-

-

-

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

-

<.5%

-

-

1%

-

1%

-

-

<.5%

1%

1%

-

<.5%

-

1%

-

-

[VOL] The state of democracy

8%

7%

7%

8%

8%

10%

6%

11%

6%

10%

1%

5%

13%

7%

9%

10%

7%

8%

9%

10%

5%

12%

3%

11%

4%

9%

[VOL] Election integrity

1%

-

<.5%

2%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

-

2%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

-

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

-

[VOL] Equality/inequality

1%

1%

5%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

3%

<.5%

1%

3%

2%

3%

-

3%

1%

1%

1%

5%

<.5%

-

3%

-

2%

-

1%

[VOL] Polarization/division

4%

4%

4%

3%

4%

5%

3%

5%

4%

4%

7%

3%

5%

2%

6%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

2%

5%

2%

6%

[VOL] Racism/racial issues

2%

4%

3%

1%

1%

3%

1%

3%

2%

1%

10%

1%

2%

1%

1%

3%

3%

1%

2%

2%

2%

4%

-

5%

-

1%

[VOL] Trump/Republicans

3%

-

1%

3%

6%

3%

3%

4%

2%

4%

5%

-

5%

2%

2%

2%

5%

2%

5%

2%

2%

6%

<.5%

7%

<.5%

2%

[VOL] Biden/Biden administration/Democrats

2%

1%

1%

2%

3%

3%

2%

1%

3%

2%

-

1%

1%

3%

2%

2%

3%

2%

1%

2%

3%

<.5%

5%

<.5%

5%

2%

[VOL] Other (specify)

9%

10%

6%

11%

7%

7%

10%

10%

8%

9%

5%

9%

11%

8%

10%

7%

6%

13%

9%

8%

9%

8%

7%

6%

6%

14%

[VOL] Refused

3%

1%

1%

3%

4%

2%

4%

1%

4%

2%

9%

2%

1%

3%

3%

4%

4%

1%

4%

2%

3%

4%

1%

5%

2%

2%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Thinking about people you meet, do you think other peoples’ political views …

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Tell you a lot about whether someone is a good person

14%

18%

12%

13%

17%

13%

15%

13%

16%

13%

20%

12%

9%

16%

14%

13%

14%

17%

15%

15%

14%

17%

13%

19%

15%

8%

Tell you a little about whether someone is a good person

35%

54%

35%

33%

31%

37%

34%

41%

31%

36%

34%

39%

44%

30%

32%

37%

33%

39%

40%

31%

36%

37%

34%

37%

34%

37%

Don’t tell you anything about whether someone is a good person

39%

26%

48%

43%

34%

40%

38%

42%

37%

40%

37%

30%

42%

39%

43%

37%

42%

34%

33%

44%

38%

36%

40%

34%

38%

46%

[VOL] DK/REF

11%

2%

5%

10%

17%

10%

13%

5%

15%

11%

8%

19%

5%

15%

11%

13%

11%

11%

11%

11%

12%

10%

12%

10%

14%

9%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Have you had any disagreements recently with family or friends over political issues that hurt your relationship?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Yes

20%

16%

23%

23%

16%

17%

23%

23%

18%

22%

8%

19%

25%

20%

20%

17%

23%

17%

19%

22%

19%

24%

17%

23%

16%

20%

No

80%

83%

77%

77%

84%

83%

77%

77%

82%

77%

92%

81%

74%

80%

80%

82%

77%

83%

80%

78%

81%

76%

82%

77%

84%

80%

[VOL] DK/REF

<.5%

1%

-

<.5%

-

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

-

<.5%

<.5%

-

2%

<.5%

-

1%

<.5%

-

-

<.5%

-

-

1%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

The government mainly works to benefit ordinary people

22%

17%

22%

21%

26%

23%

21%

30%

17%

22%

22%

18%

30%

16%

19%

26%

23%

20%

21%

26%

20%

29%

17%

31%

21%

16%

The government mainly works to benefit powerful elites

68%

79%

69%

70%

60%

69%

67%

61%

72%

68%

64%

72%

60%

75%

74%

56%

66%

73%

68%

64%

72%

60%

76%

58%

75%

69%

[VOL] DK/REF

10%

3%

9%

8%

14%

8%

12%

9%

10%

9%

14%

10%

10%

9%

7%

17%

10%

7%

11%

10%

9%

11%

7%

11%

4%

15%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Presidents should do what they think is best, even if that might go outside of existing rules

30%

48%

35%

27%

24%

27%

33%

27%

32%

26%

47%

50%

23%

28%

33%

29%

32%

26%

32%

32%

27%

29%

31%

34%

35%

23%

Presidents should follow existing rules, even if that prevents them from doing what they think is best

62%

51%

58%

67%

64%

64%

59%

66%

59%

66%

46%

43%

69%

65%

62%

62%

58%

66%

58%

63%

62%

64%

61%

61%

58%

68%

[VOL] DK/REF

8%

1%

7%

6%

12%

8%

8%

8%

9%

8%

8%

7%

8%

7%

5%

9%

10%

8%

9%

5%

11%

6%

8%

5%

7%

10%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Do you think America's political system can still address the nation's problems?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Can still address the nation's problems

46%

37%

47%

47%

47%

45%

47%

54%

41%

46%

43%

47%

56%

38%

40%

49%

49%

45%

50%

45%

45%

46%

49%

46%

46%

47%

Too divided politically to solve its problems

48%

57%

51%

47%

45%

51%

45%

42%

52%

48%

53%

42%

40%

54%

53%

45%

46%

47%

45%

49%

48%

47%

48%

45%

49%

51%

[VOL] DK/REF

6%

6%

2%

6%

8%

5%

8%

4%

8%

6%

4%

11%

4%

8%

7%

6%

5%

8%

5%

6%

8%

7%

3%

9%

5%

2%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

American democracy is currently under threat

74%

59%

73%

75%

80%

70%

79%

78%

71%

78%

65%

69%

81%

77%

79%

73%

73%

73%

73%

75%

74%

80%

75%

78%

73%

74%

American democracy is not currently under threat

20%

33%

23%

21%

12%

25%

15%

18%

21%

17%

25%

23%

15%

18%

16%

22%

20%

20%

20%

18%

21%

15%

22%

18%

22%

20%

[VOL] DK/REF

6%

8%

5%

5%

8%

5%

7%

4%

8%

5%

10%

8%

4%

5%

5%

5%

6%

7%

7%

6%

5%

5%

3%

5%

5%

6%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

(Among those who say democracy is under threat) What one or two words do you think summarize the current threat to democracy?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

[VOL] The government/government corruption/non-specific politicians/leaders

13%

19%

13%

14%

11%

14%

12%

15%

12%

13%

8%

16%

15%

12%

18%

9%

14%

11%

18%

13%

11%

9%

18%

7%

16%

18%

[VOL] Republicans (include non-Trump named Republican leaders like McConnell)

5%

2%

6%

5%

4%

4%

6%

5%

5%

6%

-

1%

6%

6%

8%

8%

2%

3%

5%

6%

3%

10%

-

12%

-

3%

[VOL] Democrats (include non-Biden named Democratic leaders like Pelosi)

6%

1%

4%

9%

5%

4%

8%

4%

8%

7%

-

2%

4%

9%

7%

4%

7%

5%

2%

9%

6%

-

12%

-

17%

3%

[VOL] Donald Trump

10%

3%

8%

7%

16%

12%

9%

11%

9%

11%

7%

12%

12%

10%

15%

13%

7%

6%

13%

8%

10%

19%

<.5%

17%

2%

12%

[VOL] Joe Biden

6%

-

5%

4%

9%

5%

6%

2%

8%

7%

-

<.5%

2%

11%

3%

4%

6%

8%

4%

4%

8%

<.5%

13%

<.5%

9%

7%

[VOL] Socialism/communism

3%

-

2%

4%

4%

4%

2%

3%

3%

3%

-

2%

3%

4%

3%

2%

4%

2%

2%

2%

4%

-

6%

-

5%

4%

[VOL] Nationalism/white nationalism/right-wing extremism

5%

12%

9%

2%

4%

5%

5%

7%

3%

5%

13%

8%

7%

2%

<.5%

7%

6%

6%

7%

5%

4%

10%

<.5%

10%

1%

4%

[VOL] Violence/political extremism

3%

<.5%

4%

1%

6%

3%

4%

4%

3%

3%

5%

7%

4%

3%

2%

3%

5%

3%

2%

5%

2%

7%

<.5%

5%

<.5%

5%

[VOL] PC culture/woke issues/cancel culture

2%

2%

2%

5%

-

1%

3%

3%

2%

3%

-

1%

3%

3%

2%

4%

3%

<.5%

1%

3%

2%

-

5%

-

3%

3%

[VOL] Voter fraud/voting issues

3%

4%

2%

4%

3%

5%

2%

6%

1%

4%

3%

-

6%

1%

2%

4%

3%

5%

3%

3%

4%

3%

4%

3%

2%

5%

[VOL] Misinformation/conspiracies/election denial

3%

1%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

4%

1%

2%

3%

3%

4%

1%

-

5%

4%

2%

<.5%

5%

1%

5%

1%

4%

1%

3%

[VOL] Societal divisions/political divisions/polarization

9%

10%

8%

13%

5%

10%

8%

9%

9%

8%

16%

10%

9%

8%

8%

5%

10%

11%

12%

9%

7%

11%

6%

10%

8%

9%

[VOL] The media

<.5%

-

-

<.5%

<.5%

-

<.5%

1%

-

<.5%

2%

-

<.5%

-

-

-

1%

-

-

1%

-

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

<.5%

-

[VOL] Immigration/border control

1%

-

-

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

-

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

-

2%

-

3%

1%

[VOL] The economy/inflation

3%

1%

4%

4%

2%

3%

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

4%

3%

4%

2%

4%

3%

3%

3%

2%

4%

2%

4%

3%

[VOL] Other, specify

22%

28%

22%

20%

20%

21%

22%

19%

24%

18%

34%

25%

18%

18%

21%

21%

21%

25%

27%

19%

21%

22%

18%

27%

18%

15%

[VOL] DK/REF

6%

15%

6%

4%

6%

5%

7%

4%

8%

6%

7%

8%

3%

8%

6%

5%

5%

8%

2%

4%

11%

3%

9%

3%

11%

5%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

(Among those who say democracy is under threat) Which comes closest to your views, even if neither is exactly right?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

We will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy

14%

39%

17%

12%

6%

11%

16%

11%

16%

9%

43%

30%

7%

10%

16%

13%

12%

15%

19%

12%

13%

14%

11%

16%

9%

15%

We can fix our democracy within our laws and institutions

84%

61%

80%

85%

93%

88%

81%

88%

80%

89%

56%

68%

93%

85%

83%

85%

85%

82%

78%

86%

85%

84%

86%

83%

88%

84%

[VOL] DK/REF

2%

-

3%

3%

1%

1%

3%

<.5%

3%

3%

1%

2%

<.5%

4%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%

1%

3%

1%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

(Among those who say we will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy) How do you think we will need to go outside the law to fix our democracy?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

[VOL] Take up arms/violence/civil war

12%

10%

4%

4%

8%

10%

10%

3%

17%

9%

-

21%

3%

12%

25%

18%

2%

7%

12%

7%

15%

11%

6%

11%

11%

6%

[VOL] Improve laws/processes/general fix within the system

41%

66%

27%

35%

50%

47%

38%

50%

35%

30%

62%

52%

46%

20%

36%

23%

39%

58%

43%

44%

36%

45%

37%

52%

35%

39%

[VOL] Other, specify

14%

4%

12%

9%

38%

9%

17%

15%

13%

18%

14%

12%

14%

21%

13%

27%

16%

3%

20%

18%

4%

16%

9%

15%

16%

17%

[VOL] Refused

16%

8%

40%

15%

-

9%

20%

18%

15%

21%

5%

11%

19%

22%

2%

20%

16%

25%

18%

15%

15%

14%

20%

15%

23%

18%

[VOL] New leadership

14%

12%

-

37%

4%

16%

13%

6%

19%

18%

13%

-

8%

25%

24%

-

21%

7%

3%

7%

30%

6%

28%

5%

15%

9%

[VOL] Protest

4%

-

17%

-

-

8%

2%

8%

2%

4%

5%

4%

11%

-

-

13%

6%

-

3%

9%

-

8%

-

2%

-

12%

Number of respondents

80

19

21

25

9

32

46

37

43

34

20

15

16

18

16

17

29

18

28

29

23

37

23

30

18

24

Percent of total electorate

100%

25%

24%

29%

11%

34%

64%

36%

64%

44%

24%

21%

17%

26%

23%

17%

32%

28%

29%

37%

34%

49%

34%

41%

19%

28%

 

(Among those who say democracy is under threat) Do you think each of the following is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to democracy?

Republicans

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

30%

36%

37%

24%

33%

31%

30%

37%

25%

27%

62%

38%

35%

20%

30%

34%

29%

29%

43%

31%

22%

54%

5%

59%

5%

25%

Minor threat to democracy

37%

54%

34%

41%

29%

34%

39%

33%

39%

36%

27%

43%

34%

39%

38%

42%

33%

36%

32%

32%

46%

35%

39%

33%

36%

41%

Not a threat to democracy

30%

10%

29%

34%

33%

32%

29%

27%

33%

33%

10%

19%

27%

39%

31%

22%

34%

32%

24%

34%

30%

8%

55%

4%

57%

32%

[VOL] DK/REF

2%

-

<.5%

2%

5%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

1%

-

4%

3%

-

2%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

1%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

Democrats

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

35%

17%

25%

42%

38%

31%

38%

25%

43%

38%

4%

33%

25%

50%

36%

30%

40%

32%

22%

30%

48%

4%

73%

4%

70%

34%

Minor threat to democracy

27%

55%

38%

22%

18%

30%

24%

31%

23%

22%

46%

42%

28%

16%

26%

22%

25%

34%

33%

27%

22%

32%

19%

29%

22%

28%

Not a threat to democracy

36%

28%

36%

35%

40%

36%

36%

44%

30%

37%

49%

24%

46%

30%

35%

46%

33%

32%

43%

39%

28%

62%

7%

65%

7%

36%

[VOL] DK/REF

2%

-

2%

1%

4%

2%

2%

<.5%

4%

2%

1%

1%

<.5%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

Donald Trump

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

47%

43%

54%

42%

49%

47%

47%

57%

39%

45%

74%

48%

57%

34%

46%

55%

43%

47%

60%

49%

35%

89%

3%

87%

5%

48%

Minor threat to democracy

20%

43%

22%

19%

12%

21%

19%

17%

22%

17%

19%

32%

17%

17%

19%

15%

19%

25%

19%

16%

24%

8%

30%

10%

25%

21%

Not a threat to democracy

33%

13%

22%

38%

39%

32%

33%

26%

38%

37%

7%

19%

26%

47%

35%

28%

37%

28%

22%

33%

40%

3%

66%

2%

68%

31%

[VOL] DK/REF

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

-

2%

-

1%

-

2%

1%

-

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

Joe Biden

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

39%

14%

31%

50%

41%

36%

41%

28%

47%

44%

13%

17%

28%

58%

37%

36%

43%

37%

19%

40%

51%

3%

82%

3%

81%

35%

Minor threat to democracy

19%

51%

20%

15%

12%

21%

18%

19%

20%

14%

29%

44%

18%

10%

20%

14%

18%

26%

29%

13%

20%

23%

12%

22%

11%

23%

Not a threat to democracy

40%

31%

49%

33%

43%

43%

37%

52%

30%

40%

57%

34%

53%

29%

40%

49%

36%

37%

49%

45%

27%

73%

4%

72%

5%

41%

[VOL] DK/REF

2%

3%

<.5%

2%

4%

1%

3%

1%

3%

2%

-

5%

1%

3%

2%

2%

3%

-

3%

2%

2%

1%

2%

3%

3%

1%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

The federal government

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

32%

35%

23%

33%

35%

27%

36%

19%

42%

33%

30%

26%

17%

46%

40%

25%

31%

30%

27%

27%

41%

14%

52%

13%

51%

33%

Minor threat to democracy

32%

36%

37%

33%

26%

30%

33%

33%

30%

28%

34%

48%

30%

25%

29%

28%

30%

39%

25%

33%

34%

33%

30%

37%

30%

30%

Not a threat to democracy

32%

29%

37%

31%

32%

37%

28%

44%

23%

34%

36%

25%

47%

23%

27%

43%

31%

28%

44%

35%

21%

50%

12%

46%

15%

36%

[VOL] DK/REF

5%

-

3%

3%

7%

5%

4%

4%

4%

6%

1%

1%

5%

5%

4%

3%

8%

2%

4%

5%

5%

3%

6%

4%

5%

2%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

The Supreme Court

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

27%

40%

34%

21%

25%

25%

28%

28%

26%

22%

55%

39%

25%

20%

33%

25%

22%

29%

37%

25%

23%

45%

8%

49%

9%

20%

Minor threat to democracy

35%

31%

41%

38%

31%

33%

37%

38%

33%

37%

23%

24%

40%

35%

31%

32%

39%

35%

34%

31%

40%

36%

33%

34%

29%

40%

Not a threat to democracy

36%

29%

23%

38%

42%

39%

33%

32%

37%

38%

18%

35%

34%

41%

35%

42%

33%

34%

27%

43%

33%

17%

55%

14%

57%

39%

[VOL] DK/REF

3%

-

2%

4%

2%

2%

3%

1%

4%

3%

4%

2%

1%

4%

1%

1%

5%

1%

2%

1%

4%

1%

3%

2%

4%

1%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

The Electoral College

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

25%

41%

30%

20%

22%

18%

30%

23%

27%

22%

53%

36%

22%

22%

25%

23%

23%

28%

37%

25%

17%

37%

10%

39%

13%

20%

Minor threat to democracy

35%

27%

39%

36%

35%

36%

35%

37%

35%

36%

30%

30%

38%

34%

36%

35%

34%

35%

30%

33%

41%

39%

32%

40%

28%

41%

Not a threat to democracy

36%

30%

29%

39%

37%

44%

30%

38%

34%

39%

17%

29%

38%

38%

37%

35%

36%

35%

30%

38%

37%

22%

53%

18%

53%

38%

[VOL] DK/REF

4%

2%

2%

5%

5%

2%

5%

3%

5%

4%

-

5%

3%

6%

1%

6%

6%

1%

3%

4%

4%

3%

5%

4%

6%

1%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

The mainstream media

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

59%

62%

54%

66%

52%

58%

59%

46%

68%

58%

49%

66%

44%

69%

62%

49%

62%

60%

52%

59%

63%

31%

89%

34%

85%

54%

Minor threat to democracy

24%

31%

33%

15%

25%

24%

23%

29%

20%

23%

34%

22%

29%

19%

24%

25%

22%

26%

27%

25%

21%

35%

9%

33%

13%

28%

Not a threat to democracy

16%

7%

12%

17%

20%

16%

16%

23%

10%

17%

18%

9%

26%

9%

13%

25%

14%

12%

21%

15%

13%

31%

-

31%

1%

15%

[VOL] DK/REF

2%

-

<.5%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

-

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

2%

-

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

Electronic voting machines

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

22%

19%

19%

25%

19%

22%

22%

15%

26%

22%

12%

18%

14%

29%

28%

25%

19%

17%

15%

23%

24%

7%

39%

10%

33%

20%

Minor threat to democracy

27%

40%

27%

26%

25%

28%

26%

25%

28%

27%

29%

27%

26%

29%

29%

16%

29%

30%

27%

21%

33%

18%

37%

20%

34%

25%

Not a threat to democracy

48%

41%

52%

45%

50%

47%

48%

58%

40%

48%

60%

48%

59%

38%

35%

56%

50%

51%

54%

53%

38%

71%

22%

65%

30%

52%

[VOL] DK/REF

4%

1%

1%

4%

6%

3%

4%

2%

5%

3%

-

7%

2%

5%

9%

3%

2%

2%

4%

3%

4%

4%

2%

5%

2%

3%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

Voting by mail

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Major threat to democracy

32%

18%

26%

42%

29%

32%

33%

23%

39%

32%

20%

26%

23%

40%

33%

34%

41%

19%

16%

35%

40%

8%

62%

10%

58%

30%

Minor threat to democracy

18%

33%

16%

17%

16%

17%

19%

16%

21%

17%

16%

32%

14%

19%

20%

11%

16%

25%

22%

11%

24%

12%

22%

13%

21%

19%

Not a threat to democracy

49%

48%

57%

40%

54%

51%

46%

60%

40%

50%

64%

41%

63%

40%

47%

56%

41%

56%

62%

53%

35%

80%

16%

77%

20%

50%

[VOL] DK/REF

1%

-

-

1%

1%

-

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

-

1%

<.5%

1%

-

-

2%

-

-

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

Number of respondents

584

62

130

198

162

285

293

305

273

406

53

66

213

189

117

123

216

128

150

233

201

278

225

198

173

170

Percent of total electorate

100%

8%

20%

35%

31%

45%

55%

44%

55%

71%

7%

10%

33%

38%

23%

19%

33%

24%

23%

41%

36%

48%

42%

35%

30%

28%

 

How much do you trust that the results of the 2022 midterm elections will be accurate?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

A great deal

37%

39%

44%

37%

34%

38%

37%

45%

32%

39%

32%

28%

47%

32%

38%

41%

36%

36%

48%

36%

33%

61%

13%

56%

15%

43%

A fair amount

34%

40%

30%

33%

36%

35%

34%

34%

34%

33%

29%

54%

35%

33%

34%

31%

33%

37%

30%

37%

34%

27%

42%

30%

41%

32%

Not too much

17%

16%

18%

17%

18%

14%

19%

12%

20%

17%

21%

8%

12%

21%

19%

17%

15%

16%

10%

19%

18%

6%

28%

8%

28%

15%

Not at all

8%

5%

7%

11%

8%

10%

7%

5%

10%

8%

12%

5%

4%

12%

7%

6%

10%

9%

8%

6%

11%

3%

14%

3%

13%

8%

[VOL] DK/REF

4%

<.5%

1%

3%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

5%

5%

3%

2%

2%

5%

5%

2%

4%

3%

4%

3%

4%

4%

3%

3%

NET trust

71%

79%

74%

69%

70%

72%

71%

80%

66%

72%

61%

82%

82%

65%

72%

72%

69%

73%

78%

72%

66%

88%

55%

86%

56%

75%

NET distrust

25%

21%

25%

28%

26%

24%

26%

17%

30%

25%

33%

13%

16%

33%

26%

24%

25%

24%

19%

25%

29%

9%

42%

11%

41%

22%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

When it comes to elections in the United States, what concerns you more?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

That some people will cast votes illegally

46%

32%

39%

53%

51%

47%

46%

40%

51%

52%

22%

34%

42%

61%

44%

43%

50%

46%

28%

46%

59%

9%

86%

12%

85%

42%

That some eligible voters won’t have a fair chance to vote

48%

67%

55%

42%

43%

46%

50%

56%

43%

44%

73%

59%

55%

34%

49%

53%

44%

49%

66%

48%

36%

84%

11%

84%

12%

50%

[VOL] DK/REF

5%

2%

6%

5%

5%

7%

4%

4%

6%

4%

6%

6%

3%

5%

7%

4%

6%

4%

6%

6%

5%

7%

2%

5%

3%

8%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Which candidate do you think was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Joe Biden

63%

74%

72%

57%

60%

66%

61%

74%

56%

60%

90%

75%

74%

48%

65%

71%

56%

66%

77%

66%

52%

99%

26%

97%

29%

64%

Donald Trump

30%

20%

21%

37%

31%

27%

32%

19%

38%

33%

7%

20%

19%

46%

28%

24%

35%

29%

20%

27%

39%

<.5%

66%

1%

64%

26%

[VOL] DK/REF

7%

5%

7%

5%

8%

7%

7%

7%

6%

7%

3%

4%

8%

6%

7%

6%

9%

5%

4%

7%

9%

1%

8%

2%

8%

10%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Thinking about a candidate for political office who you agree with on most positions, how comfortable would you be voting for that candidate if they say they think the 2020 election was stolen?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Very comfortable

20%

5%

14%

24%

24%

18%

21%

17%

21%

22%

10%

10%

17%

27%

20%

14%

23%

19%

14%

19%

24%

3%

40%

3%

40%

15%

Somewhat comfortable

20%

17%

23%

25%

16%

24%

17%

18%

21%

23%

3%

13%

20%

27%

22%

25%

16%

20%

9%

20%

26%

4%

34%

7%

34%

21%

Not too comfortable

14%

39%

14%

10%

10%

15%

13%

12%

16%

11%

19%

24%

12%

11%

13%

9%

17%

17%

17%

10%

17%

12%

15%

12%

12%

20%

Not at all comfortable

41%

37%

47%

38%

44%

40%

43%

51%

35%

40%

64%

44%

51%

31%

39%

46%

39%

43%

54%

48%

26%

78%

6%

75%

9%

42%

[VOL] DK/REF

5%

3%

2%

4%

6%

4%

5%

2%

6%

3%

4%

9%

1%

4%

5%

6%

6%

2%

6%

3%

6%

3%

5%

3%

5%

3%

NET comfortable

39%

22%

37%

49%

40%

41%

38%

36%

43%

46%

13%

23%

36%

54%

43%

39%

39%

39%

23%

39%

51%

7%

74%

10%

75%

36%

NET not comfortable

56%

75%

61%

47%

54%

55%

57%

63%

51%

51%

83%

68%

62%

42%

52%

55%

55%

60%

71%

58%

43%

90%

21%

87%

21%

62%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Thinking about a candidate for political office who you agree with on most positions, how comfortable would you be voting for that candidate if they say they think Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Very comfortable

49%

43%

60%

47%

47%

51%

47%

61%

41%

47%

74%

49%

61%

36%

49%

53%

47%

50%

58%

55%

37%

85%

14%

83%

16%

48%

Somewhat comfortable

19%

31%

19%

19%

14%

19%

18%

18%

19%

19%

11%

26%

19%

19%

20%

25%

16%

17%

15%

20%

20%

10%

24%

13%

23%

21%

Not too comfortable

10%

23%

5%

11%

9%

9%

11%

6%

13%

9%

6%

12%

6%

11%

11%

5%

9%

13%

8%

7%

14%

1%

19%

1%

18%

13%

Not at all comfortable

18%

2%

12%

21%

25%

17%

19%

12%

23%

21%

7%

11%

11%

30%

19%

13%

22%

16%

15%

16%

23%

2%

37%

2%

39%

15%

[VOL] DK/REF

4%

1%

4%

3%

5%

4%

5%

3%

5%

4%

2%

3%

3%

4%

2%

4%

6%

4%

5%

2%

6%

2%

6%

2%

4%

4%

NET comfortable

68%

74%

79%

65%

61%

70%

66%

79%

60%

66%

85%

75%

80%

55%

68%

77%

63%

67%

73%

75%

57%

95%

38%

95%

39%

69%

NET not comfortable

28%

25%

17%

32%

34%

26%

30%

18%

36%

30%

14%

22%

17%

41%

30%

19%

31%

29%

22%

23%

37%

3%

56%

3%

57%

27%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Do you personally find the QAnon [Q-ANON] theories or movement believable or not believable, or do you not know enough to say?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Believable

5%

4%

4%

5%

6%

5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

7%

6%

4%

4%

6%

4%

5%

5%

4%

5%

6%

5%

6%

4%

5%

5%

Not believable

39%

41%

51%

40%

32%

41%

37%

55%

29%

43%

36%

26%

59%

31%

37%

48%

35%

41%

48%

43%

29%

61%

18%

57%

19%

41%

Don't know enough to say

52%

54%

44%

52%

56%

50%

55%

39%

62%

50%

54%

62%

37%

61%

54%

45%

57%

51%

43%

49%

62%

32%

73%

38%

71%

52%

[VOL] DK/REF

3%

1%

1%

3%

6%

4%

3%

1%

5%

3%

3%

6%

1%

5%

4%

3%

3%

3%

5%

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

5%

2%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Have you ever heard of the movie “2000 Mules” [two-thousand mules]?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Heard a lot

11%

<.5%

11%

14%

10%

13%

8%

10%

11%

12%

5%

2%

12%

12%

19%

8%

9%

8%

7%

12%

12%

5%

18%

4%

16%

11%

Heard a little

20%

11%

20%

25%

18%

23%

17%

23%

18%

22%

11%

14%

24%

21%

20%

19%

20%

20%

23%

17%

20%

15%

24%

16%

22%

24%

Have not heard of this

68%

88%

69%

58%

71%

62%

73%

67%

69%

65%

82%

79%

64%

65%

60%

71%

70%

70%

69%

70%

65%

78%

56%

78%

61%

64%

[VOL] DK/REF

2%

1%

-

2%

1%

1%

3%

1%

2%

2%

2%

5%

<.5%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

(Among those who have heard a lot or a little about “2000 Mules”) Do you personally think the findings in “2000 Mules” (two-thousand mules) are believable or not believable, or do you not know enough to say?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Believable

35%

11%

28%

39%

36%

39%

29%

29%

39%

36%

29%

17%

30%

41%

30%

37%

37%

36%

15%

41%

40%

3%

54%

<.5%

57%

30%

Not believable

20%

41%

33%

15%

17%

19%

23%

33%

10%

21%

11%

12%

36%

7%

20%

22%

19%

20%

27%

15%

21%

60%

2%

59%

2%

17%

Don't know enough to say

44%

48%

39%

45%

46%

41%

47%

37%

50%

43%

60%

71%

34%

51%

48%

37%

44%

44%

58%

41%

39%

36%

45%

41%

40%

49%

[VOL] DK/REF

1%

-

-

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

-

-

-

-

-

1%

5%

-

-

-

2%

1%

-

-

-

-

4%

Number of respondents

215

11

49

91

57

127

86

116

99

158

13

14

85

73

51

43

77

44

50

85

80

70

115

48

79

74

Percent of total electorate

100%

4%

21%

45%

27%

57%

42%

45%

55%

75%

5%

6%

36%

40%

28%

17%

32%

23%

23%

38%

39%

30%

59%

22%

38%

33%

 

What single news source do you turn to most often? This could include a social media site or a news site.

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

[VOL] Fox News

19%

9%

12%

21%

26%

20%

18%

14%

22%

22%

7%

14%

15%

27%

22%

12%

23%

17%

12%

18%

25%

2%

40%

1%

44%

13%

[VOL] CNN

8%

6%

8%

8%

9%

7%

9%

9%

7%

6%

15%

13%

6%

6%

6%

10%

8%

9%

5%

11%

8%

14%

2%

14%

3%

8%

[VOL] MSNBC

4%

-

1%

4%

6%

4%

5%

3%

5%

4%

11%

4%

2%

5%

7%

4%

3%

3%

5%

4%

4%

9%

<.5%

10%

1%

2%

[VOL] NPR

4%

3%

12%

4%

1%

4%

5%

6%

3%

5%

1%

4%

7%

4%

3%

4%

4%

6%

5%

6%

2%

9%

-

6%

<.5%

7%

[VOL] Talk radio

3%

-

1%

5%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

1%

4%

3%

2%

3%

<.5%

5%

<.5%

3%

4%

[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC

15%

17%

6%

13%

22%

14%

16%

14%

15%

15%

17%

18%

13%

18%

14%

17%

15%

13%

14%

12%

18%

18%

11%

20%

12%

13%

[VOL] Local television news

8%

3%

5%

7%

10%

6%

9%

7%

8%

8%

6%

9%

6%

10%

6%

7%

7%

11%

7%

8%

7%

7%

7%

8%

8%

7%

[VOL] National news organizations, like The New York Times The Wall Street Journal

6%

17%

8%

5%

3%

8%

4%

10%

3%

6%

8%

3%

12%

1%

5%

10%

5%

6%

8%

8%

3%

10%

2%

8%

2%

8%

[VOL] Local newspapers

3%

1%

2%

2%

5%

3%

3%

2%

3%

3%

-

4%

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

2%

5%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

4%

2%

[VOL] Social media

11%

22%

21%

10%

4%

13%

9%

14%

9%

9%

14%

19%

14%

5%

12%

11%

11%

12%

17%

10%

9%

11%

10%

12%

10%

10%

[VOL] Friends and family

1%

2%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

-

-

<.5%

1%

2%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

2%

[VOL] BBC

1%

1%

1%

-

2%

1%

1%

2%

<.5%

1%

1%

-

1%

-

-

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

-

1%

[VOL] International source

1%

-

<.5%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

-

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

[VOL] Aggregation site (ex. Yahoo News)

2%

5%

3%

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

3%

1%

3%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

3%

[VOL] Right-wing site

2%

3%

3%

2%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

-

3%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

3%

1%

<.5%

3%

-

3%

1%

[VOL] Doesn't consume news

2%

7%

2%

1%

1%

1%

2%

<.5%

3%

1%

2%

-

<.5%

2%

-

2%

1%

3%

<.5%

2%

2%

<.5%

3%

-

2%

4%

[VOL] Other (specify)

7%

3%

7%

10%

5%

7%

8%

6%

8%

6%

7%

7%

6%

7%

8%

6%

9%

6%

11%

5%

8%

7%

6%

9%

4%

6%

[VOL] Refused

4%

2%

5%

6%

2%

4%

5%

4%

4%

5%

4%

1%

5%

4%

5%

5%

5%

2%

5%

3%

5%

3%

4%

3%

2%

7%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Catholic

20%

17%

13%

21%

24%

22%

18%

18%

21%

20%

8%

43%

19%

19%

19%

37%

12%

17%

18%

23%

18%

20%

21%

22%

22%

15%

Protestant (Christian)

33%

18%

25%

34%

45%

32%

35%

32%

34%

36%

46%

16%

33%

39%

37%

25%

41%

25%

30%

34%

34%

24%

44%

25%

47%

30%

Mormon (LDS)

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

3%

1%

-

<.5%

6%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

Jewish

2%

6%

3%

1%

2%

2%

2%

4%

1%

2%

4%

2%

5%

-

-

5%

2%

2%

3%

3%

1%

3%

1%

5%

1%

1%

Muslim

1%

-

1%

1%

-

1%

<.5%

1%

-

-

3%

-

-

-

1%

1%

<.5%

-

<.5%

1%

-

1%

-

1%

-

1%

[VOL] CHRISTIAN (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)

6%

9%

3%

7%

8%

4%

9%

3%

9%

5%

14%

9%

2%

7%

6%

3%

8%

6%

4%

4%

11%

5%

7%

5%

8%

7%

Some other religion (specify)

8%

13%

11%

7%

4%

6%

9%

6%

9%

6%

9%

5%

5%

8%

7%

3%

7%

13%

8%

5%

10%

6%

9%

6%

7%

9%

No religious affiliation

26%

34%

40%

25%

13%

29%

23%

31%

22%

26%

14%

24%

31%

22%

26%

24%

24%

31%

31%

26%

22%

37%

14%

33%

10%

33%

[VOL] DK/REF

3%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

1%

2%

3%

3%

3%

5%

<.5%

4%

2%

3%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Yes

55%

37%

49%

68%

50%

53%

57%

48%

59%

58%

49%

47%

50%

63%

58%

55%

61%

42%

47%

57%

58%

40%

68%

44%

69%

42%

No

41%

61%

49%

30%

43%

44%

39%

49%

36%

38%

46%

50%

46%

33%

42%

45%

32%

52%

45%

41%

38%

54%

30%

47%

29%

55%

[VOL] Refused

4%

2%

1%

2%

8%

3%

4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

3%

4%

4%

-

-

7%

6%

8%

2%

4%

6%

2%

9%

2%

2%

Number of respondents

379

39

80

131

114

176

202

170

209

250

51

31

107

143

83

52

162

82

92

136

151

131

178

98

145

106

Percent of total electorate

100%

9%

17%

35%

34%

42%

58%

37%

63%

68%

12%

7%

26%

42%

23%

12%

40%

25%

22%

37%

42%

33%

52%

25%

40%

28%

 

Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Yes

11%

26%

11%

8%

7%

10%

12%

7%

14%

-

-

100%

-

-

6%

9%

9%

20%

18%

9%

9%

14%

6%

15%

5%

13%

No

87%

73%

89%

91%

92%

89%

86%

92%

84%

99%

96%

-

100%

100%

93%

89%

89%

78%

81%

89%

89%

85%

93%

83%

93%

86%

[VOL] Refused

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

4%

-

<.5%

<.5%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Would you consider yourself:

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

White

72%

61%

70%

73%

81%

72%

73%

75%

70%

98%

-

51%

99%

98%

76%

75%

73%

66%

65%

70%

79%

67%

84%

64%

87%

67%

Black or African American

9%

12%

9%

8%

9%

9%

9%

8%

9%

-

99%

5%

-

-

5%

7%

14%

6%

17%

9%

4%

15%

1%

18%

2%

8%

Asian or Asian American

2%

9%

5%

1%

-

4%

1%

3%

2%

-

-

-

-

-

1%

3%

2%

4%

1%

5%

<.5%

3%

1%

4%

<.5%

2%

Native American

1%

-

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

-

1%

3%

-

-

4%

1%

1%

1%

<.5%

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

Some other race (specify)

4%

4%

3%

4%

3%

5%

2%

3%

5%

2%

-

17%

1%

2%

4%

4%

1%

6%

7%

3%

3%

4%

2%

5%

3%

3%

More than one race

7%

11%

9%

7%

5%

5%

9%

7%

8%

-

-

19%

-

-

4%

5%

6%

14%

8%

8%

6%

7%

7%

6%

4%

13%

[VOL] Refused

4%

3%

2%

5%

2%

4%

4%

3%

4%

<.5%

-

5%

-

<.5%

5%

5%

4%

3%

2%

4%

5%

3%

4%

3%

2%

5%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

What is the highest educational level which you have completed:

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Grade school

3%

-

1%

2%

5%

2%

3%

-

5%

3%

7%

2%

-

5%

1%

1%

4%

4%

2%

1%

5%

1%

4%

2%

5%

2%

High school

23%

30%

12%

22%

28%

21%

25%

-

40%

23%

14%

35%

-

43%

26%

21%

21%

23%

17%

17%

33%

20%

24%

22%

26%

20%

Vocational or trade school

5%

3%

4%

8%

3%

6%

4%

-

9%

5%

-

10%

-

9%

9%

2%

5%

3%

4%

6%

4%

3%

8%

2%

6%

7%

Some college, no degree

17%

20%

15%

17%

15%

16%

17%

-

29%

13%

22%

23%

-

24%

22%

11%

14%

20%

18%

16%

17%

16%

19%

15%

18%

16%

Associate’s degree

10%

8%

7%

11%

12%

10%

10%

-

17%

10%

17%

3%

-

18%

8%

11%

11%

9%

12%

11%

8%

8%

10%

8%

10%

11%

Bachelor’s degree

24%

33%

34%

23%

18%

26%

23%

59%

-

27%

19%

17%

61%

-

24%

22%

28%

22%

30%

26%

19%

28%

22%

28%

23%

23%

Graduate or professional degree

17%

5%

27%

16%

17%

20%

15%

41%

-

18%

19%

10%

39%

-

9%

30%

16%

17%

16%

23%

12%

23%

12%

22%

11%

20%

[VOL] Refused

1%

-

-

-

1%

<.5%

2%

-

-

1%

2%

<.5%

-

-

-

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

-

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or a member of another party?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Democrat

33%

35%

30%

29%

38%

28%

38%

40%

29%

28%

67%

44%

37%

21%

31%

43%

31%

30%

42%

33%

27%

68%

2%

100%

-

-

Republican

31%

21%

24%

37%

35%

30%

32%

26%

35%

39%

7%

15%

30%

46%

31%

26%

38%

25%

21%

30%

38%

2%

64%

-

100%

-

Independent

28%

32%

36%

27%

23%

34%

23%

29%

28%

27%

23%

33%

28%

26%

27%

26%

25%

36%

26%

30%

28%

26%

26%

-

-

100%

Another party

3%

5%

5%

4%

1%

5%

2%

3%

3%

4%

<.5%

1%

4%

4%

7%

2%

2%

2%

5%

3%

2%

2%

3%

-

-

-

[VOL] DK/REF

5%

7%

5%

3%

3%

4%

5%

2%

6%

3%

2%

6%

2%

3%

4%

3%

4%

7%

5%

4%

5%

2%

5%

-

-

-

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

(If not a Democrat or a Republican) And as of today, do you lean more to:

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

The Democratic Party

36%

35%

46%

29%

39%

38%

35%

44%

31%

39%

69%

38%

51%

31%

38%

38%

37%

32%

53%

41%

18%

77%

1%

-

-

40%

The Republican Party

47%

49%

36%

54%

53%

50%

46%

39%

54%

50%

16%

35%

41%

58%

51%

51%

40%

50%

28%

47%

61%

9%

95%

-

-

48%

[VOL] DK/REF

17%

16%

18%

17%

8%

13%

19%

17%

15%

10%

15%

26%

8%

11%

11%

11%

23%

18%

19%

12%

21%

14%

4%

-

-

13%

Number of respondents

300

45

82

97

56

174

117

145

151

183

26

38

91

89

63

55

107

75

84

123

93

114

95

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

13%

26%

33%

22%

56%

43%

40%

58%

63%

6%

12%

28%

33%

23%

17%

29%

30%

24%

41%

35%

37%

39%

78%

 

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Very liberal

13%

19%

21%

10%

8%

11%

16%

17%

11%

12%

14%

15%

16%

8%

18%

12%

8%

17%

19%

15%

8%

27%

1%

30%

2%

8%

Somewhat liberal

11%

17%

16%

10%

8%

11%

12%

15%

9%

11%

21%

15%

14%

8%

11%

18%

9%

9%

11%

13%

10%

22%

1%

24%

2%

9%

Moderate

32%

24%

30%

34%

35%

33%

31%

37%

29%

31%

30%

33%

35%

28%

31%

30%

32%

35%

37%

30%

31%

38%

23%

32%

21%

47%

Somewhat conservative

19%

21%

19%

18%

21%

21%

16%

15%

22%

20%

20%

16%

15%

24%

21%

16%

20%

17%

14%

19%

21%

8%

31%

5%

32%

21%

Very conservative

18%

15%

10%

26%

20%

18%

19%

14%

21%

21%

4%

17%

16%

26%

13%

14%

26%

17%

12%

18%

24%

2%

40%

3%

41%

12%

[VOL] DK/REF

6%

4%

5%

3%

7%

5%

6%

3%

8%

5%

10%

4%

2%

7%

6%

9%

5%

5%

9%

5%

5%

5%

4%

7%

3%

4%

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

Did you vote in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Yes

95%

85%

97%

97%

98%

95%

97%

98%

94%

97%

94%

91%

99%

96%

94%

97%

97%

94%

95%

96%

96%

100%

100%

97%

96%

95%

No

4%

15%

3%

3%

2%

5%

3%

2%

6%

3%

6%

9%

1%

4%

6%

3%

3%

5%

5%

4%

4%

-

-

2%

4%

5%

[VOL] Refused

<.5%

-

-

<.5%

-

<.5%

1%

-

1%

<.5%

-

<.5%

-

-

-

1%

<.5%

1%

1%

<.5%

<.5%

-

-

<.5%

-

-

Number of respondents

792

102

181

261

202

406

376

394

390

518

77

99

262

251

152

171

292

177

205

319

268

346

299

254

238

233

Percent of total electorate

100%

10%

21%

34%

29%

48%

52%

42%

57%

68%

8%

11%

30%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

24%

40%

36%

44%

42%

33%

31%

28%

 

(If voted in 2020) Did you vote for:

Likely Voters

Age

Gender

Education

Race/Ethnicity

Race and Education

Region

Community

2020 Vote

Party I.D.

18 to 29

30 to 44

45 to 64

65+

Male

Female

B.A.+

No B.A.

White

Black

Hispanic

White, college

White, no college

MW

NE

S

W

City

Suburb

Rural

Biden

Trump

D

R

I

Donald Trump

44%

38%

35%

51%

44%

46%

42%

34%

51%

51%

7%

27%

40%

61%

44%

37%

50%

40%

27%

42%

57%

-

100%

2%

91%

40%

Joe Biden

46%

52%

52%

38%

49%

44%

48%

55%

39%

41%

84%

61%

53%

30%

44%

53%

43%

47%

59%

50%

34%

100%

-

93%

3%

43%

[VOL] Jo Jorgensen

1%

1%

2%

1%

-

2%

<.5%

1%

1%

1%

-

1%

<.5%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

-

-

-

-

2%

[VOL] DK/REF

9%

9%

11%

9%

7%

8%

9%

10%

9%

7%

9%

12%

7%

7%

10%

10%

6%

12%

14%

7%

8%

-

-

5%

7%

15%

Number of respondents

729

84

167

242

198

368

354

376

347

488

69

86

253

231

138

157

273

161

187

292

250

346

299

242

223

212

Percent of total electorate

100%

9%

21%

35%

30%

47%

52%

43%

56%

69%

8%

10%

31%

37%

22%

20%

34%

24%

23%

40%

36%

46%

44%

34%

31%

28%

 
Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents only include self-identified independents.

Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 registered voters nationwide was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.0 percentage points for registered voters and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the likely electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each strata. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a strata’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state (as a random effect), telephone number quality, age, race, turnout and metropolitan status. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, IPOR at the University of Roanoke, and the PORL at the University of North Florida. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 75 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents initially contacted by English-speakers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 6 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish.

Weighting

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package. The registered and likely voter weights were calculated separately to account for the differences between registered voters and the likely electorate and to incorporate both modeled vote history data and respondent’s self-reported intention to vote. Survey weights were trimmed at the 99th percentile.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by strata. For the likely electorate, the first-stage weight also incorporated the respondent’s modeled intention to vote, based on voter file data.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters. The sample was also weighted to match census-based estimates for the educational attainment of registered voters and the likely electorate.

Third, the sample was weighted to match the characteristics of the likely electorate. The estimates for the characteristics of the likely electorate were based on multiple models. First, a model estimated the likely turnout by state, based on recent turnout and the competitiveness of the midterm race. Second, an individual-level model of turnout in 2010, 2018 and 2021 was used to estimate the probability that registrants would participate in the midterm election as a function of their demographic and political characteristics. Finally, the individual-level estimates were adjusted to match the expected turnout by state.

Fourth, self-reported vote intention was incorporated into the estimate of a respondent’s likelihood to vote. That was based on a model of validated turnout in Times/Siena surveys since 2016 as a function of self-reported vote intention and the pre-survey modeled turnout probability, including an adjustment for the higher turnout of survey respondents than nonrespondents.

Finally, the final weight for the likely electorate was equal to the initial likely electorate weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability incorporating self-reported vote intention divided by the initial modeled turnout probability.

Parameters

The following voter-file-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:

• Party (NYT classifications based on L2 data and, in states without party registration or primary vote history, a model of partisanship based on previous Times/Siena polls)

• Age (self-reported age or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Gender (self-reported gender or voter file gender if the respondent refuses)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Homeownership (L2 model)

• Metropolitan area (2013 National Center for Health Statistics Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Region (Census Bureau definition, except Maryland, Delaware and Washington, D.C., reclassified as Northeast)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

The following census-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:

• Educational attainment (NYT model based on A.C.S. and C.P.S. data)

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.31 for registered voters and 1.38 for the likely electorate.