In brief

The war will continue in 2024, concentrated in Ukraine's east and south, but issues such as funding and manpower will become increasingly tricky for the government. EIU does not believe that external funding will fall to such an extent that it will result in significant Russian gains, with the West likely to provide enough support to allow Ukraine to defend its positions (but not enough to allow it to make material gains on the battlefield). We expect the war to be a protracted conflict without a clear-cut resolution. Even if a ceasefire is eventually reached, the dividing line will be fragile, and there is little prospect of a durable peace. The economy will return to pre-war growth levels in 2024, but recovery will be slow, limited by Russia's continuing targeting of critical infrastructure.

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