According to Dodik, this could include pulling Bosnian Serb soldiers out of Bosnia’s joint armed forces and re-establishing Republika Srpska’s own military, as well as withdrawing from the country’s indirect taxation system.

These forewarnings are nothing new for Dodik, as he used the same rhetoric to stage his political comeback in 2005, and then to win every election in Republika Srpska since then.

Dodik’s speechifying, apparently motivated once again by an upcoming election in 2022, unfortunately never fails to cause many Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) officials, public figures and media outlets to raise the threat of a new war if Dodik’s aspirations materialise.

“The [1992-95] war started in a similar situation,” warned Bosniak opposition leader Elmedin Konakovic on Face TV on October 2.

“Is [Republika Srpska’s administrative centre] Banja Luka preparing a war against us?” wrote Tuzla-based journalist Mehmed Pargan in a column for Politicki.ba.

At least part of this rhetoric can be seen as posturing by Bosniak political parties ahead of next year’s elections. Countless rounds of this unfortunate tradition of radicalised rhetoric ahead of each election, and the long history of Dodik’s (so far empty) threats are being used as an argument by those who have chosen to overlook or downplay the latest incidents.

Nevertheless, many domestic experts and international diplomats, and particularly Bosnian citizens, have become increasingly concerned in the absence of any alternative politics, progressive ideas, or positive and constructive actions from either internal or external actors.

EU’s Balkans policy in disarray

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen with Bosnian presidency members Zeljko Komsic, Sefik Dzaferovic and Milorad Dodik in Sarajevo in September. Photo: EPA-EFE/FEHIM DEMIR.

One part of the reason for these heightened concerns is the fact that Bosnia’s crisis has never been so serious, with its administrative, political, electoral, educational and health systems steadily failing.

The Bosniak- and Croat-dominated Federation has been administered by a caretaker government since 2014, since the ruling Bosniak and Bosnian Croat parties have been unable to agree on how to implement the results of the 2018 elections.

Throughout this period, the other entity, Republika Srpska, has steadily become more autonomous thanks to the autocratic leadership of Dodik’s SNSD.

Torn between the conflicting radical policies of the Bosniak, Bosnian Croat and Bosnian Serb parties, joint institutions were effectively deadlocked a long time before Republika Srpska’s politicians – ruling and opposition alike – abandoned the state presidency, government and parliament in July. They did it in protest against a controversial law banning the denial of genocide, which was imposed by the international overseer of Bosnia’s peace agreement, outgoing High Representative Valentin Inzko, a few days before his final departure.

Another reason for the growing fears is the fact that the West, which has been the enabler, protector and guarantor of the Dayton peace agreement, is also in an unprecedented shambles.

The US and EU’s engagement and influence in the Balkans have been declining for years, a result their growing disinterest in the region, caused by internal problems, as well as mutual disagreements and divisions within and between Washington and EU capitals.

This has damaged hopes of further EU enlargement in the region, a policy that has been considered the key to the stability and long-term prosperity of the Balkans.

A further wave of criticism of the EU was triggered by a recent story published by Reuters news agency, which revealed the bloc’s disagreement over its continued commitment to membership for Balkan states. European Commission officials tried to deny or correct the news agency, but to no avail.

A senior Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, has confirmed to BIRN that EU officials indeed had problems agreeing on a text of a joint statement on the guarantee of future membership to six countries, which they were drafting for the upcoming Western Balkans Summit on October 6 in Slovenia.

Without the perspective of EU membership and Western oversight, Balkan politicians have halted reforms and slipped towards radical rhetoric, populism, nationalism and corruption, as well as looking more towards Russia, China, Turkey and other powers rather towards than the European bloc.

Aside from the deepening crisis in Bosnia, all the other countries in the region have witnessed growing problems in recent times, from corruption and democratic backsliding in Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia to growing political and ethnic tensions in Kosovo and Montenegro.

Dodik aims to seize the moment

Children play in a war-damaged house in Sarajevo in July 1998. Photo: EPA/FEHIM DEMIR.

The most difficult and potentially dangerous situation seems to be in Bosnia, where Dodik’s reinvigorated separatist ideas – fuelled by the worsening geopolitical and regional situation – are threatening to break the country apart.

Dodik recently proposed the withdrawal of Republika Srpska’s contingent from Bosnia’s joint armed forces, as well as pulling out of the country’s indirect taxation system. However, his party colleagues rejected this last week, fearing that the first move would provoke a spat with NATO, while the second would leave Republika Srpska without financial resources, Bosnian Serb sources said – but they added that Dodik has not given up on his separatist ideas and has other cards up his sleeve.

Following the withdrawal of all Republika Srpska officials from state institutions in July, Dodik has been preparing ‘phase two’ of his response to the imposition of the genocide denial law. According to his plan, Dodik would use the arrest, detention or questioning of any Bosnian Serb for genocide denial as a pretext to block the implementation of state-level laws and the operations of state institutions within Republika Srpska, Bosnian Serb sources say.

Such a move would represent the legal secession of Republika Srpska from the rest of the country. But it is still unclear whether even such an obvious violation of the Dayton peace agreement would convince the West to use the powers and mandate vested in the Office of the High Representative and the EU-led peacekeeping force in Bosnia and Herzegovina, EUFOR, to remove Dodik and other secessionists from office.

Western failure to react to such a challenge could seal the fate of the country, creating legal and political chaos, in which Dodik – as well as other two main ethnically-based parties currently in power – the Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ and the Bosniak Party of Democratic Action, SDA – could be able to remain in office indefinitely.

This scenario has already been given a name – the ‘Mostarisation’ of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This refers to the situation in the southern city of Mostar, which did not hold elections from 2008 until 2020 and was run by the same mayor throughout this period due to the inability or unwillingness of the local political leaders to find a solution that would allow polls to be held.

While Dodik has been repeatedly saying that he doesn’t want war and that Bosnia could and should be divided peacefully, many domestic military and political experts and officials say that even legal separation – without immediate territorial break-up – would set the stage for a new ethnic conflict in Bosnia.

Bosniaks would likely give the US and EU some time to fix that problem, but Western failure to address such a scenario quickly, or a move by Dodik towards territorial separation would almost inevitably lead to a new conflict, many fear.

One of the top Balkan experts in the West, Janusz Bugajski, recently issued a similar warning. In an interview with Serbian magazine Dani on October 1, Bugajski identified three possible scenarios for Bosnia – peace if it remains an integrated country, and two violent outcomes, one with successful intervention by the West and the other without.

Some experts go even further, warning that renewed ethnic violence in one part of the Balkans could spread to the rest of the region, given the long list of unresolved disputes and outstanding issues, as well as external pressures.

Quo vadis, Bosnia?

A monument at the Srebrenica Memorial Centre lists the names of Bosniaks killed in July 1995 by Bosnian Serb forces. Photo: EPA-EFE/FEHIM DEMIR.

As Bosnia seems to be continuing to slide towards the possibility of a new conflict, which could be prompted either by some unilateral political move or by an unplanned ethnic incident, many have been considering the question of how to avert the worst-case scenario.

“Many wonder in fear; what to do? Will Dodik pull us into a war, or is he only talking rubbish? No one has an answer, or a solution,” journalist Mehmed Pargan wrote in an article for Politicki.ba.

This quandary is further complicated by the general opinion in Western capitals that the US and the EU have tried everything in the Balkans, all the possible approaches, and now lack new ideas and the stamina to move forward.

Yet this assumption is dead wrong. Throughout the past three decades, the West was doing in the Balkans what it was willing to do, not what it was supposed to do, sometimes disregarding warnings and recommendations from its own pundits.

While even the best of Balkan experts often disagree over the exact modalities of what the West should be doing in the region, they usually agree over one thing -the critical need for the EU and US to reinvent specific and relevant ‘carrots and sticks’ and use them to restore the basic red lines.

That means that the West needs a set of appropriate rewards and sanctions to protect the legal and territorial integrity of the country.

This is more easily said than done, given the fact that EU member countries cannot agree over the use of sanctions, and also cannot guarantee full membership to any of the Balkan countries in the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the US has obviously lost its interest in Europe, let alone in the Balkans, and has allowed its presence in the region to dwindle as it has become focused on the Pacific region and its relations with China.

This weakening of American leverage in the Balkans was accentuated after a recent meeting between Dodik and Gabriel Escobar, the newly-appointed deputy assistant secretary at the US State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian affairs.

After the meeting, Dodik published the transcript, which showed that when Escobar warned about new American sanctions against politicians who create obstructions, Dodik replied by saying that he does not “give a fuck about sanctions”, adding: “If you want to talk to me, do not threaten me.”

Such a bold attitude in the face of American warnings showed how radicalised Dodik has become, but also how much the US has lost its influence in the region, officials and experts say.

Weakened by their individual and shared divisions and problems, the EU and US would have to once again stand together and closely coordinate their actions in the Balkans if they stand a chance of preventing the region slipping towards chaos and violence.

This, however, is a tall order given the growing divisions, tensions and even animosities that have been revealed lately in the transatlantic partnership.

Srecko Latal is a journalist, editor and analyst who has been covering the Balkans since the 1990s.

The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.