On NATO’s eastern flank, Latvia contends with a migration crisis orchestrated by neighbouring Belarus

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NATO’s eastern flank at the Latvian-Belarus border is lined with new barbed-wire fencing that runs as far as the eye can see – a stark symbol of the state of emergency Riga has declared for the 172-kilometre frontier.

Russia’s menacing of Ukraine has set off alarms in Eastern European countries that border Russia and close ally Belarus, a second territory where Moscow has been massing troops as fears of military action against Kyiv remain high.

Latvia’s border patrols and national guard say they’re ready for the worst-case scenario where a threat to the Baltics emerges from the chaos of war in Ukraine. “It doesn’t matter if it comes from Russia or Belarus or Kaliningrad. We are prepared for total defence,” Colonel Gunars Vizulis with the Latvian National Guard said at a training camp for new recruits at Meza Mackevici, about 35 kilometres from the frontier with Belarus.

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But officials say the biggest challenge for Latvia right now – and the reason for this new barbed-wire fence – is the continuing migration crisis orchestrated by neighbouring Belarus.

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More than 1,500 people from countries such as Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East were intercepted by Latvian patrols in January trying to enter the country illegally from Belarus. That’s up from 1,400 attempts in December and 500 to 600 a month when this began last summer, said Lieutenant-Colonel Juris Kusins with Latvia’s State Border Guard.

Those caught tell Latvian authorities that the Belarusian army directed them to the border.

Col. Vizulis blames the illegal migration on Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, accusing him of “political mischief.” The European Union says Belarus is flying in thousands of people from the Middle East and pushing them to cross into EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

He speculated that the Belarusians are trying to exhaust the Baltic country’s resources by engineering these migrant crossings. “It’s tiring. We are strong and will do our best if needed but nevertheless we are a small country.”

Where the troops are

Around 130,000 Russian troops –equipped with everything

from tanks and artillery to ammunition and air power – are

now surrounding Ukraine on all sides.

Russian

troops

Four NATO

multinational

battlegroups:

5,000 troops

ESTONIA

25,000

Baltic

Sea

5,000

Adazi

1,000

LATVIA

Moscow

Tanks

LITH.

RUSSIA

Armoured

vehicles

Rukla

BELARUS

Yelnya

Artillery

Other

military

or air

Orzysz

POLAND

4,000 U.S.

troops

stationed

Brest

Pogonovo

Donbas:

Territory

controlled by

pro-Russian

separatists

Kyiv

Volgograd

UKRAINE

ROMANIA

Donetsk

Rostov

Craiova: NATO’s

multinational

brigade 5,000

troops

Korenovsk

Sevastopol:

Russian

Black Sea

Fleet HQ

200km

Crimea:

Annexed by

Russia in 2014

graphic news, Sources: Janes; NATO, Reuters;

The New York Times; Rochan Consulting

Where the troops are

Around 130,000 Russian troops –equipped with everything

from tanks and artillery to ammunition and air power – are

now surrounding Ukraine on all sides.

Russian

troops

Four NATO

multinational

battlegroups:

5,000 troops

ESTONIA

25,000

Baltic

Sea

5,000

Adazi

1,000

LATVIA

Moscow

Tanks

LITH.

RUSSIA

Armoured

vehicles

Rukla

BELARUS

Artillery

Other

military

or air

Orzysz

POLAND

4,000 U.S.

troops

stationed

Brest

Pogonovo

Donbas:

Territory

controlled by

pro-Russian

separatists

Kyiv

UKRAINE

Volgograd

ROMANIA

Donetsk

Rostov

Craiova: NATO’s

multinational

brigade 5,000

troops

Korenovsk

Sevastopol:

Russian

Black Sea

Fleet HQ

200km

Crimea:

Annexed by

Russia in 2014

graphic news, Sources: Janes; NATO, Reuters;

The New York Times; Rochan Consulting

Where the troops are

Around 130,000 Russian troops – equipped with everything from tanks and artillery to ammunition and

air power – are now surrounding Ukraine on all sides.

Russian troops

Tapa

Tallinn

25,000

Four NATO multinational

battlegroups: 5,000 troops

ESTONIA

5,000

1,000

Adazi

Tanks

Riga

Baltic

Sea

LATVIA

Armoured

vehicles

RUSSIA

Moscow

LITHUANIA

Artillery

Rukla

Other military

or air instal-

lations

BELARUS

Vilnius

RUS.

Yelnya

Minsk

Klintsy

Orzysz

Asipovicny

Baranovichi

Pochep

Rechytsa

Warsaw

Marshala Zhukova

Brest

POLAND

4,000 U.S.

troops

stationed

Pogonovo

Soloti

Dnieper

River

Kyiv

Boguchar

Transnistria:

Russian-backed

breakaway region

of Moldova

Donbas:

Territory

controlled by

pro-Russian

separatists

Luhansk

Volgograd

UKRAINE

Donetsk

Persianovskiy

Tiraspol

ROMANIA

Rostov

Craiova: NATO’s

multinational brigade

5,000 troops

Korenovsk

Bucharest

Sevastopol:

Russian

Black Sea

Fleet HQ

200km

Crimea:

Annexed by

Russia in 2014

BULGARIA

Black Sea

GEORGIA

graphic news, Sources: Janes, NATO, Reuters, The New York Times, Rochan Consulting

Col. Vizulis said this constant stream of illegal migrants is an example of unconventional warfare.

”We are already in a war; we are in a hybrid-warfare scenario,” Col. Vizulis said, referring to tactics used to disrupt and disable one’s opponent without engaging in open hostilities. “I think it’s done by Belarus in really close co-operation with Russia.”

Latvia has resorted to extreme surveillance to stop those trying to cross the border, using heat sensors, a series of 32-metre-high observation towers as well as helicopters, video cameras and constant patrols. Latvia’s public broadcaster has reported that the barbed wire extends for more than 37 km.

Border patrols have turned back more than 5,800 illegal migrants from Belarus since August, 2021. The foreigners tell Latvian forces that they are held in camps and not allowed to return to the Belarusian capital of Minsk, Lt.-Col. Kusins said.

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He said the barbed-wire fence dividing Latvia from Belarus is in the process of being replaced with a more permanent structure.

Latvian authorities say a number of migrants have tried to cross into Latvia more than seven times. Some are found poorly clothed and wet from their ordeal. The government works with the Red Cross to furnish them with sufficient clothes and food.

Lt.-Col. Kusins said if they find illegal migrants on the Latvian side of the border they return them to Belarus unless they are suffering from health problems that require attention.

Latvia’s national guard, which supports the border patrols, has a quick reaction force that can be at the frontier with Belarus in five minutes, Col. Vizulis said.

The national guard is augmented by the rest of the Latvian National Armed Forces and a Canadian-led NATO battlegroup in Riga. Britain leads a battle group in neighbouring Estonia, the Germans in Lithuania and the Americans in Poland, and several countries are boosting soldiers and weapons stationed on NATO’s eastern flank as tensions rise with Moscow.

Europe, meanwhile, is bracing for an influx of refugees from Ukraine if Russia launches an offensive.

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U.S. lawmakers were warned last week that a full invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin could result in one million to five million Ukrainian refugees, The New York Times reported Saturday.

Former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves said in an interview that it would be much easier for Ukrainians to flee their country for the European Union now compared with 2014, the last time Moscow moved against the Kyiv government, because the EU has since granted Ukrainians visa-free access.

“If there is a war, many, many people in Ukraine will take a vacation and there is nothing to stop them from taking a vacation,” Mr. Ilves predicted.

Mr. Ilves said he does not agree with those who forecast that the Baltics are next on Moscow’s menu if Ukraine falls to Russia.

He said a war in Ukraine would mire Russia in its neighbouring country for years. “They are going to be bogged down and dealing with a military occupation for a long, long time,” he said.

Separately, Wednesday, Lithuania’s President said the country will ask the United States to permanently station troops in his country to help boost security.

Gitanas Nauseda spoke after welcoming a new rotation of the German-led international NATO battle group, deployed in 2017 and soon to include 350 additional German troops in response to Russia massing troops near Ukraine.

Since 2019, the United States has deployed non-overlapping rotations of its own groups of about 500 troops and equipment in Lithuania, adding to the alliance’s efforts to deter Russia from its vulnerable flank.

“We will be talking to the U.S. to make sure that the rotational U.S. forces would be in Lithuania permanently,” Mr. Nauseda told a news conference.

With reports from Reuters

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