- One Bear Place
P.O. Box 97276
Baylor University
Waco, TX 76798 - 254-710-6050
Serhiy Kudelia
Baylor University, Political Science, Faculty Member
- Political Science, Historical Institutionalism, Post-Socialist Societies, Policy (Social Sciences), Institutional Change, Ukrainian Politics, and 23 moreRational Choice, Political Elites, Comparative Politics, Post-Soviet Regimes, Revolutions, Political Extremism/Radicalism/Populism, Democratization, Political Violence and Terrorism, Ukrainian Studies, Democratic Theory, Russian Studies, Authoritarianism, Political Regimes, Terrorism, Counter terrorism, Terrorism and Counterterrorism, Insurgency and counterinsurgency, Institutions (Political Science), Democratisation, Politics of Ukraine, Post-Communism, Ethnic Conflict and Civil War, and Civil Waredit
- Associate professoredit
Book review of Anna Aratyunyan, Hybrid Warriors: Proxies, Freelancers and Moscow’s Struggle for Ukraine (Hurst, 2022) and Dominique Arel and Jesse Driscoll, Ukraine’s Unnamed War: Before the Russian Invasion of 2022 (Cambridge University... more
Book review of Anna Aratyunyan, Hybrid Warriors: Proxies, Freelancers and Moscow’s Struggle for Ukraine (Hurst, 2022) and Dominique Arel and Jesse Driscoll, Ukraine’s Unnamed War: Before the Russian Invasion of 2022 (Cambridge University Press, 2022).
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This article examines the effect of shared group membership on civilian attitudes regarding insurgent forces during an armed conflict. We rely on the original survey conducted in eight towns of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in May–June... more
This article examines the effect of shared group membership on civilian attitudes regarding insurgent forces during an armed conflict. We rely on the original survey conducted in eight towns of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in May–June 2015. Based on the bivariate and multivariate analysis of the survey results, this article finds that a sense of shared identity with rebel forces at the start of the armed conflict in Donbas had a strong independent effect on civilian views of insurgents. Those respondents who identified themselves as residents of the region were more likely to attribute ideational motives to insurgents, report no knowledge of civilian victimization caused by rebel forces, and feel secure in their presence. By contrast, respondents identifying themselves as Ukrainian citizens were more likely to attribute material motives to insurgents, indicate their responsibility for attacks against civilians, and feel intimidated during direct encounters with rebels. These findings point to broader significance of identity cleavages in explaining the Donbas conflict.
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The effectiveness of recruitment strategies is crucial for sustainability of any insurgent campaign. This paper identifies eight mechanisms used to encourage overt and covert participation in the armed conflict in Donbas and shows that... more
The effectiveness of recruitment strategies is crucial for sustainability of any insurgent campaign. This paper identifies eight mechanisms used to encourage overt and covert participation in the armed conflict in Donbas and shows that they varied depending on the type of service expected from a recruit. It relies on the original dataset compiled from studying 798 court cases of insurgents and informers convicted in Ukrainian courts in the period from October 2014 to March 2017. The paper finds that militants were more responsive to contractual or hierarchical mechanisms of recruitment, while informers who provided cover support were more likely to join through ideological appeals or activation of prior social ties.
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Recent studies show that protest campaigns have a greater chance of success if they adopt nonviolent tactics, while the use of violence is often self-defeating. This article argues that violence may prove effective when combined with high... more
Recent studies show that protest campaigns have a greater chance of success if they adopt nonviolent tactics, while the use of violence is often self-defeating. This article argues that violence may prove effective when combined with high popular mobilization, embedded in a generally non-violent movement and practiced against an unresponsive regime with low cost-tolerance threshold. Based on the case study of Ukraine's 2014 revolution, the article shows that the presence of an ideologically motivated agency skilled in violent techniques lowers the initial costs of generating violence, while the moral outrage in the face of regime backlash decreases further participation costs. If armed resistance on the part of protesters can increase the costs of a crackdown for the regime beyond its tolerance level, it will yield to protest demands.
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The limits on presidential authority in premier-presidential regimes permit legislatures to wield preeminent influence over government formation and termination. This article shows that even without formal powers to dismiss the prime... more
The limits on presidential authority in premier-presidential regimes permit legislatures to wield preeminent influence over government formation and termination. This article shows that even without formal powers to dismiss the prime minister, the president may play a decisive role in government replacement. The article compares three successful and one failed attempt by the president to unseat the prime minister in Ukraine under a premier-presidential system. Based on a review of the significance of 10 variables accounting for presidential activism, it finds that the president’s informal control over institutional veto players as well as the unity of his party faction and cooperation of opposition groups were necessary for the success of attempted cabinet turnover.
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"This article examines the evolution of the state in Ukraine from an object of elite predation in early 1990s into a dominant actor in relations with non-state actors under Kuchma, an instrument of elite struggles for power and rents... more
"This article examines the evolution of the state in Ukraine from an object of elite predation in early 1990s into a dominant actor in relations with non-state actors under Kuchma, an instrument of elite struggles for power and rents under Yushchenko and a return to a centralized state authority under Yanukovych. Despite its different transformations the state in Ukraine has been continuously characterized by the prevalence of informal levers of power and the absence of strong formal institutional foundations. As a result, after twenty years it still lacks the prerequisites of effective governance in a modern state – an impersonal bureaucracy, rule of law and mechanisms of accountability. This institutional void produces Ukraine’s vicious cycling between hybrid types of authoritarianism and democracy leaving the state dysfunctional and incomplete.
Keywords
Post-Soviet; State building; State-society relations; Informal institutions; Ukraine"""
Keywords
Post-Soviet; State building; State-society relations; Informal institutions; Ukraine"""
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"Do warring sides in asymmetric conflicts always know what type of violence they use against civilians? This article relies on the case study of an anti-Soviet insurgency in Western Ukraine between 1944 and 1953 in order to demonstrate... more
"Do warring sides in asymmetric conflicts always know what type of violence they use against civilians? This article relies on the case study of an anti-Soviet insurgency in Western Ukraine between 1944 and 1953 in order to demonstrate how selective violence used by insurgents can become indiscriminate under the influence of a counterinsurgency strategy rather than their conscious choice. It challenges two major theories of coercive violence that refer to exogenous factors to explain shifts in the character of
violence and shows how insurgents may recognize such a shift only once they see its counterproductive effects. Using recently declassified documents, this article demonstrates how the insurgents’ decision to engage in a violent campaign against Soviet-led collectivization gradually turned the rural base of insurgency against them. Apart from shedding a new light on the Soviet–Ukrainian conflict in the late 1940s, the article has broader implications for the studies of insurgency campaigns and the reasons for civilian defection to the incumbent side."
violence and shows how insurgents may recognize such a shift only once they see its counterproductive effects. Using recently declassified documents, this article demonstrates how the insurgents’ decision to engage in a violent campaign against Soviet-led collectivization gradually turned the rural base of insurgency against them. Apart from shedding a new light on the Soviet–Ukrainian conflict in the late 1940s, the article has broader implications for the studies of insurgency campaigns and the reasons for civilian defection to the incumbent side."
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This article analyzes two decades of contestation over Ukraine’s constitutional provisions regulating executive-legislative relations using insights from the theories of interstate bargaining. It demonstrates how changes in the power... more
This article analyzes two decades of
contestation over Ukraine’s constitutional provisions
regulating executive-legislative relations using insights
from the theories of interstate bargaining. It demonstrates
how changes in the power balance between elite actors
and the variation in the length of their time horizons
affect the probability of them reaching an agreement.
The article explains the reasons for elite acquiescence to
the building of a powerful presidency in Ukraine in the
1990s, a successful shift to a semi-presidential system in
2004, repeated failures to amend the semi-presidential
system, and an abrupt return to a super-presidential
model in 2010.
contestation over Ukraine’s constitutional provisions
regulating executive-legislative relations using insights
from the theories of interstate bargaining. It demonstrates
how changes in the power balance between elite actors
and the variation in the length of their time horizons
affect the probability of them reaching an agreement.
The article explains the reasons for elite acquiescence to
the building of a powerful presidency in Ukraine in the
1990s, a successful shift to a semi-presidential system in
2004, repeated failures to amend the semi-presidential
system, and an abrupt return to a super-presidential
model in 2010.
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The failure of Western leverage to prevent the jailing of Ukraine’s former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, shows that the political costs of compliance make EU’s democratic bargaining ineffective in dealing with authoritarian states.
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Former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych’s misrule, the popular reaction against it, and the manner of his downfall disrupted the very foundations of Ukraine’s still nascent and defective state. While in office, Yanukovych’s greed for... more
Former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych’s misrule, the popular reaction against it, and the manner of his downfall disrupted the very foundations of Ukraine’s still nascent and defective state. While in office, Yanukovych’s greed for power and wealth proved devastating to both him and his country. In order to grasp the reasons for the destructive effect of Yanukovych’s presidency, one needs to look at the way in which he reconfigured Ukraine’s political regime and the strategies that he adopted to maintain power. - See more at: http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/article/maidan-and-beyond-house-yanukovych-built#sthash.1Ys4LqaA.dpuf
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"‘Electoral revolutions’, of which the Orange Revolution is an example, are a byproduct of a protracted and inconclusive struggle among political elites, and they promote democratization only inasmuch as they push elites to a consensus on... more
"‘Electoral revolutions’, of which the Orange Revolution is an example, are a byproduct of a protracted and inconclusive struggle among political elites, and they promote democratization only inasmuch as they push elites to a consensus on the
new institutional rules. This is illustrated by the dynamics of elite conflict in Ukraine, starting from the founding political crisis of 2000 and tracing the changing institutional preferences of the incumbents and challengers, as well as their conflicting political strategies. Ukraine’s protests in 2004 helped ruling and opposition elites to reconcile their differences and agree on the new power-sharing arrangement embodied in the parliamentary–presidential system."
new institutional rules. This is illustrated by the dynamics of elite conflict in Ukraine, starting from the founding political crisis of 2000 and tracing the changing institutional preferences of the incumbents and challengers, as well as their conflicting political strategies. Ukraine’s protests in 2004 helped ruling and opposition elites to reconcile their differences and agree on the new power-sharing arrangement embodied in the parliamentary–presidential system."
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This article reviews President Poroshenko’s first term in office and argues that he failed in his attempt to balance the imperatives of power consolidation with demands for institutional development. Key reforms have been implemented only... more
This article reviews President Poroshenko’s first term in office and argues that he failed in his attempt to balance the imperatives of power consolidation with demands for institutional development. Key reforms have been implemented only partially due to the resistance of the vested interests linked to the ruling elite. The most significant setback occurred in the areas of political rights and freedoms and respect for civil society where pro-government actors interfered to neutralize potential threats to their power from below. Furthermore, the authorities nation-building policies have been based on the ethnocentric ideology meant to encourage greater cultural homogeneity of the Ukrainian society. Although the Ukrainian public might have ultimately emerged as a more cohesive national unit, the failures to improve the quality of governance made it even more resentful of the political establishment and skeptical about the prospects for reform if the current president retains power.
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This paper examines Russian-Ukrainian relations of the past four years in the context of the present political regime in Ukraine and the interests of its ruling elite. It focuses on the fundamental changes in the Ukrainian leadership’s... more
This paper examines Russian-Ukrainian relations of the past four years in the context of the present political regime in Ukraine and the interests of its ruling elite. It focuses on the fundamental changes in the Ukrainian leadership’s foreign policy strategy and points to long-term risks associated with Kiev’s hopes that Western patronage will help strengthen its security. In conclusion, the author considers three scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian state in the coming decade and analyzes their possible consequences for Russian-Ukrainian relations.
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The “Russian Spring,” which was taken up in Donetsk and Luhansk as the struggle for the Donbas, led to the loss of the territory for both Ukraine and Russia. Although many blame Moscow for starting the war in the region, the key role was... more
The “Russian Spring,” which was taken up in Donetsk and Luhansk as
the struggle for the Donbas, led to the loss of the territory for both
Ukraine and Russia. Although many blame Moscow for starting the war
in the region, the key role was played by processes that took place within
Ukraine. Violent revolution led to the government’s loss of its monopoly
on the use of force, polarized public opinion and produced countermobilization among its opponents. Oligarchs in Donbas hedged their bets trying to deal both with the new authorities and their local
challengers.Members of security forces from the Donbas considered the
new government illegal and supported separatism. Miscalculations by
the government allowed the separatist movement room to consolidate,
while the indiscriminate use of force by government troops increased
support for the movement among the population. Russia exploited these
developments, but did not play a determining role in them.
the struggle for the Donbas, led to the loss of the territory for both
Ukraine and Russia. Although many blame Moscow for starting the war
in the region, the key role was played by processes that took place within
Ukraine. Violent revolution led to the government’s loss of its monopoly
on the use of force, polarized public opinion and produced countermobilization among its opponents. Oligarchs in Donbas hedged their bets trying to deal both with the new authorities and their local
challengers.Members of security forces from the Donbas considered the
new government illegal and supported separatism. Miscalculations by
the government allowed the separatist movement room to consolidate,
while the indiscriminate use of force by government troops increased
support for the movement among the population. Russia exploited these
developments, but did not play a determining role in them.
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This article explores the strength of authoritarian trends and the likelihood of democratic change in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. It argues that the regimes in all three states share some of the structural characteristics that made Arab... more
This article explores the strength of authoritarian trends and the likelihood of democratic change in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. It argues that the regimes in all three states share some of the structural characteristics that made Arab autocracies vulnerable to a challenge from below. However, marked variation in the intensity of opposition movements in each of these countries lowers probability of a wave of successful regime change in the near term. In addition, the article explains how strategy of coercive demobilization allows authorities to raise immediate costs of further opposition activities, but also increases risks of a societal backlash in the future. The article concludes by suggesting that the main dilemma of the opposition leaders in three states is how to offer a comprehensive reform agenda to the society without alienating moderates and potential defectors inside the ruling regime.
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Данное исследование рассматривает российско-украинские отношения последних четырех лет в контексте особенностей политического режима в Украине и интересов правящей элиты. Оно выделяет ряд принципиальных изменений во внешнеполитической... more
Данное исследование рассматривает российско-украинские отношения последних четырех лет в контексте особенностей политического режима в Украине и интересов правящей элиты. Оно выделяет ряд принципиальных изменений во внешнеполитической стратегии украинского руководства и указывает на долгосрочные риски связанные с расчетом Киева на западный патронаж для усиления безопасности Украины. В заключении, автор рассматривает три сценария развития украинского государства в ближайшее десятилетие и анализирует их возможные последствия для двусторонних отношений.
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The Strategy of Campaigning explores the political careers of Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin, two of the most galvanizing and often controversial political figures of our time. Both men overcame defeat early in their political careers... more
The Strategy of Campaigning explores the political careers of Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin, two of the most galvanizing and often controversial political figures of our time. Both men overcame defeat early in their political careers and rose to the highest elected offices in their respective countries.
The authors demonstrate how and why Reagan and Yeltsin succeeded in their political aspirations, despite—or perhaps because of—their apparent “policy extremism”: that is, their advocacy of policy positions far from the mainstream. The book analyzes the viability of policy extremism as a political strategy that enables candidates to forge new coalitions and outflank conventional political allegiances.
The authors demonstrate how and why Reagan and Yeltsin succeeded in their political aspirations, despite—or perhaps because of—their apparent “policy extremism”: that is, their advocacy of policy positions far from the mainstream. The book analyzes the viability of policy extremism as a political strategy that enables candidates to forge new coalitions and outflank conventional political allegiances.
This article is the first to explore and compare the dynamics of party-building between the three main political forces that competed for power during the last decade in Ukraine – Viktor Yushchenko's Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine), Yulia... more
This article is the first to explore and compare the dynamics of party-building between the three main political forces that competed for power during the last decade in Ukraine – Viktor Yushchenko's Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine), Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), and Viktor Yanukovych's Partiya Rehioniv (Party of Regions). We show that their political trajectories can be explained by differences in their organizational structure and distribution of resources within the party's leadership. When a party depends on resources linked primarily to one individual, it will develop a personalized decision-making structure advantaging its leader, and the party's fortunes will be tied to the popularity (or lack of same) of the leader. By contrast, when a party relies equally on resources from several groups, a more consociational style of decision-making is likely to emerge. Using Ukraine as a case study, the article shows that personality-led parties will be more vulnerable to defections and less capable of absorbing potential competitors. On the other hand, coalition-led parties are better capable of surviving defeats, maintaining internal cohesion, and merging with like-minded parties.
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Chapter 4 in Beyond the Euromaidan: Comparative Perspectives on Advancing Reform in Ukraine, eds. Henry Hale and Robert Orttung (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2016).
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This chapter will first look at the political legacy of Yushchenko’s presidency that prepared ground for an authoritarian revival. It will then analyze key political reversals under Yanukovych focusing on the closure of main arenas for... more
This chapter will first look at the political legacy of Yushchenko’s
presidency that prepared ground for an authoritarian revival. It will then analyze key political reversals under Yanukovych focusing on the closure of main arenas for political contestation and enhanced capacity of the new authorities to neutralize civil society mobilization. The chapter will conclude by outlining a set of recommendations on how to deter Ukraine from turning into a full-blown authoritarian regime and promote its greater political openness.
presidency that prepared ground for an authoritarian revival. It will then analyze key political reversals under Yanukovych focusing on the closure of main arenas for political contestation and enhanced capacity of the new authorities to neutralize civil society mobilization. The chapter will conclude by outlining a set of recommendations on how to deter Ukraine from turning into a full-blown authoritarian regime and promote its greater political openness.
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This essay argues that the key reason for Ukraine’s ineffective foreign policy over the last two decades has been a persistent credibility gap, which emerged out of its frequent failure to live up to its international commitments. This... more
This essay argues that the key reason for Ukraine’s ineffective foreign policy over the last two decades has been a persistent credibility gap, which emerged out of its frequent failure to live up to its international commitments. This essay demonstrates that the reasons for its credibility problem varied and were tightly linked to the distribution of political power inside the country.
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В настоящей аналитической записке исследуются причины и последствия продолжающихся нарушений права на физическую неприкосновенность, практикуемых на контролируемых Киевом территориях Донбасса государственными структурами и связанными с... more
В настоящей аналитической записке исследуются причины и последствия продолжающихся нарушений права на физическую неприкосновенность, практикуемых на контролируемых Киевом территориях Донбасса государственными структурами и связанными с ними военизированными группировками. В записке утверждается, что непрекращающееся использование репрессивных практик против местного гражданского населения подрывает авторитет государства в регионе, создает дополнительные препятствия для урегулирования конфликта и может стать предвестником использования подобных акций против всех оппонентов нынешнего режима.
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In the last three years, violence practiced by government agents has reached the highest level in Ukraine’s history. Drawing on evidence from UN OHCHR reports this memo examines how enforced disappearance, torture and summary executions... more
In the last three years, violence practiced by government agents has reached the highest level in Ukraine’s history. Drawing on evidence from UN OHCHR reports this memo examines how enforced disappearance, torture and summary executions of alleged pro-Russian separatists have been perpetuated largely with impunity in government-controlled areas of Donbas. The new operational autonomy of security agents in repressing alleged separatist collaborators allows to turn repressive tactics against regime opponents in civil society and politics. The memo suggests that apart from violating international obligations extrajudicial violence by Ukraine’s security services poses broader risks to the integrity of the country’s democratic process and its national cohesion. It also creates insurmountable obstacles for resolving the armed conflict in Donbas and establishing sustainable peace in the region.
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Вооруженный конфликт в Донбассе стал результатом сложного взаимодействия переменных на двух уровнях – структурном и индивидуально-групповом. Монокаузальные объяснения, которые указывают на Россию как на единственную виновницу конфликта,... more
Вооруженный конфликт в Донбассе стал результатом сложного взаимодействия переменных на двух уровнях – структурном и индивидуально-групповом. Монокаузальные объяснения, которые указывают на Россию как на единственную виновницу конфликта, игнорируют эти крайне важные внутренние причины повстанческого движения в Донбассе.
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This memo views the Donbas insurrection as primarily a homegrown phenomenon. It argues that political factors—state fragmentation, violent regime change, and the government’s low coercive capacity—combined with popular emotions specific... more
This memo views the Donbas insurrection as primarily a homegrown phenomenon. It argues that political factors—state fragmentation, violent regime change, and the government’s low coercive capacity—combined with popular emotions specific to the region—resentment and fear—played a crucial role in launching the armed secessionist movement there.
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Политическая цена членства Украины в Таможенном союзе может оказаться для России куда выше, чем предполагаемая символическая и материальная выгода, которую она может получить. Вероятный политический подтекст вступления Украины в ТС... more
Политическая цена членства Украины в Таможенном союзе может оказаться для России куда выше, чем предполагаемая символическая и материальная выгода, которую она может получить. Вероятный политический подтекст вступления Украины в ТС проанализирован в этой аналитической записке. Автор доказывает, что российская политическая стратегия по восстановлению господства в регионе будет успешной только в том случае, если Украина будет выключена из российских интеграционных мероприятий.
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When is Western leverage ineffective in shaping a neighboring country’s internal policy-making and enforcing democratic norms? I address this question by analyzing the failed attempts of Western governments to prevent the jailing of... more
When is Western leverage ineffective in shaping a neighboring country’s internal policy-making and enforcing democratic norms? I address this question by analyzing the failed attempts of Western governments to prevent the jailing of Ukraine’s opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. I argue that prevailing theories that account for the effectiveness of Western leverage by focusing either on the attractiveness of conditional benefits offered to a target country or its structural characteristics are inadequate to explain Tymoshenko’s case. Rather, I draw on bargaining models of international relations to show that the characteristics of a contested issue may limit the effectiveness of positive leverage based on the mere promise of future rewards in exchange for compliance.
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При каких обстоятельствах Запад не может результативно повлиять на развитие внутриполитических процессов в соседней стране и на соблюдение в ней норм демократии? Я отвечу на этот вопрос, анализируя провал попыток западных стран не... more
При каких обстоятельствах Запад не может результативно повлиять на развитие внутриполитических процессов в соседней стране и на соблюдение в ней норм демократии? Я отвечу на этот вопрос, анализируя провал попыток западных стран не допустить заключения под стражу лидера украинской оппозиции Юлии Тимошенко.
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Richard Sakwa’s Frontline Ukraine is both a searing critique of
Western policies after the Cold War and a thorough revision of
cheerful and monochrome accounts of Ukraine’s latest revolution.
Western policies after the Cold War and a thorough revision of
cheerful and monochrome accounts of Ukraine’s latest revolution.
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The results of the parliamentary election in Ukraine produced few genuine surprises. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions came in first in the party-list voting (30.1%) and won over half of single-mandate races (114) securing most seats in the... more
The results of the parliamentary election in Ukraine produced few genuine surprises. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions came in first in the party-list voting (30.1%) and won over half of single-mandate races (114) securing most seats in the new parliament. Its dominance will be buttressed by the likely support from many independents (44), informal alliance with the communists (13.2%) and some defections from the opposition. Three opposition forces – United Opposition (25.4%), Udar (13.9%) and Svoboda (10.4%) - received close to majority of votes on the proportional ballot, but will remain in minority in the parliament due to a weak showing in majoritarian races (winning 60 of 225 races). International observers and Western governments sharply criticized the election conduct, but did not go as far as refusing to recognize its results. The official election count largely corresponded to the findings of four independent exit polls conducted on election date. Still, the outcome of the parliamentary election gives us several revealing insights into the current public attitudes, Yanukovych’s vulnerabilities and his likely re-election strategy.
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The upcoming parliamentary election in Ukraine should have been a slam dunk for the country’s opposition forces. According to the recent IRI poll, 2/3 of Ukrainians believe the country has been moving in the wrong direction. Less then... more
The upcoming parliamentary election in Ukraine should have been a slam dunk for the country’s opposition forces. According to the recent IRI poll, 2/3 of Ukrainians believe the country has been moving in the wrong direction. Less then 10% say they are better off now than they were a year ago. And 72% of Ukrainians polled do not expect any improvement in their economic situation over the next twelve months. Finally, the two largest opposition parties – Tymoshenko’s “Bat’kivshyna” and Yatsenyuk’s “Front of Change” – agreed on a single party list to maximize their votes. Still, pro-presidential Party of Regions has maintained a consistent lead in all the opinion polls with close to 30% of support and beating the “United Opposition” by 4-7%. For most Ukrainian pundits the only open question now is whether Yanukovych’s loyalist base in the parliament would expand from a simple to a constitutional majority. Five factors explain the opposition’s dismal performance in the current election cycle.
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April 11, 2019
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Two years after EuroMaidan, Ukraine's culture of impunity remains a deadly threat to freedom of expression.
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Despite the apparent failure of Yanukovych’s patronage policies his successor Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko also chose the proffering of public goods as one of her key strategies in 2010 presidential campaign. This paper will first look... more
Despite the apparent failure of Yanukovych’s patronage policies his successor Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko also chose the proffering of public goods as one of her key strategies in 2010 presidential campaign. This paper will first look at the reasons for why Tymoshenko’s campaign could have viewed patronage as an effective strategy despite its many failures in the past. Secondly, I will differentiate between the main types of patronage policies that Tymoshenko pursued and how her overall approach to patronage disbursements differed from that of Yanukovych in 2004. Thirdly, I will try to establish a political impact of these policies, and focus particularly on the two cases, which may be emblematic of the overall trend. Finally, I will put forward several possible explanations for the ineffectiveness of the government’s efforts to buy voters in 2010 election and discuss the future of patronage as a political tool in Ukraine.
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Using the political process model of social movements (Tilly, Tarrow, McAdam), paper analyzes the origins, dynamics and outcome of the protest movement in Ukraine (December, 2000 – March, 2001). Among structural preconditions of the... more
Using the political process model of social movements (Tilly, Tarrow, McAdam), paper analyzes the origins, dynamics and outcome of the protest movement in Ukraine (December, 2000 – March, 2001).
Among structural preconditions of the protest, the paper points to increasingly authoritarian nature of Ukraine’s political system and the absence of an organized democratic opposition to the regime. Transitory opportunities for popular mobilization included division within Ukraine’s ruling elite and the emergence of an influential political actor allied with protesters. Finally, the murder of an independent journalist and public release of evidence implicating top Ukrainian officials in this crime provided emotional impetus for the nationwide protest.
Development of the protest movement is viewed as a function of the tactical interaction between protesters, authorities and other political and social actors. Thus, authors differentiate between three stages of the protest cycle in Ukraine. In the incipient stage (1) all the main political actors experienced uncertainty regarding their interests and strategies, which provided protesters with considerable power leverage. During the reactive stage (2), protest diffused to the regions, the authorities tried various techniques to neutralize the protesters, while other political actors looked for ways to use the protest action to advance their interests. The escalation stage (3) of the protest was marked by high public mobilization, effective counters on the part of the authorities, and co-optation of the protest movement by emerging political opposition.
Demobilization of Ukraine’s protest movement came as a result of a combination of internal and external factors, including lack of new protest forms, use of violence by protesters, renewed unity within the ruling elite and altered political context of insurgency. Paper traces the movement’s impact by focusing on changed societal attitudes, elite opinion and patterns of the political process in Ukraine in the aftermath of protest actions.
Among structural preconditions of the protest, the paper points to increasingly authoritarian nature of Ukraine’s political system and the absence of an organized democratic opposition to the regime. Transitory opportunities for popular mobilization included division within Ukraine’s ruling elite and the emergence of an influential political actor allied with protesters. Finally, the murder of an independent journalist and public release of evidence implicating top Ukrainian officials in this crime provided emotional impetus for the nationwide protest.
Development of the protest movement is viewed as a function of the tactical interaction between protesters, authorities and other political and social actors. Thus, authors differentiate between three stages of the protest cycle in Ukraine. In the incipient stage (1) all the main political actors experienced uncertainty regarding their interests and strategies, which provided protesters with considerable power leverage. During the reactive stage (2), protest diffused to the regions, the authorities tried various techniques to neutralize the protesters, while other political actors looked for ways to use the protest action to advance their interests. The escalation stage (3) of the protest was marked by high public mobilization, effective counters on the part of the authorities, and co-optation of the protest movement by emerging political opposition.
Demobilization of Ukraine’s protest movement came as a result of a combination of internal and external factors, including lack of new protest forms, use of violence by protesters, renewed unity within the ruling elite and altered political context of insurgency. Paper traces the movement’s impact by focusing on changed societal attitudes, elite opinion and patterns of the political process in Ukraine in the aftermath of protest actions.
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Guerilla war with continued external support may turn the armed conflict in Donbas into a long-term quagmire for Ukraine.
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The walls separating Ukraine from the West have been gradually crumbling over the past 20 years. Although external visa restrictions remain, the state no longer prevents Ukrainians from traveling abroad and allows Westerners to visit... more
The walls separating Ukraine from the West have been gradually crumbling over the past 20 years.
Although external visa restrictions remain, the state no longer prevents Ukrainians from traveling abroad and allows Westerners to visit Ukraine freely. This makes Ukraine’s Soviet-age policy of non-recognition of Western scholarly degrees look like an embarrassing anachronism – the last major wall between Ukraine and the West, which prevents Ukrainian universities from turning into modern and competitive research institutions.
Although external visa restrictions remain, the state no longer prevents Ukrainians from traveling abroad and allows Westerners to visit Ukraine freely. This makes Ukraine’s Soviet-age policy of non-recognition of Western scholarly degrees look like an embarrassing anachronism – the last major wall between Ukraine and the West, which prevents Ukrainian universities from turning into modern and competitive research institutions.
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Вопрос ответственности президента Кучмы и других госчиновников, подозреваемых в преступлениях против украинских граждан, обычно рассматривается в черно-белых тонах. Радикальные оппозиционеры требуют суда, а умеренные обещают ввести... more
Вопрос ответственности президента Кучмы и других госчиновников, подозреваемых в преступлениях против украинских граждан, обычно рассматривается в черно-белых тонах.
Радикальные оппозиционеры требуют суда, а умеренные обещают ввести политическую амнистию. Однако и в первом, и во втором случаях без внимания остается потребность украинского общества узнать от государства исчерпывающую правду о всех невинных смертях, причиной которых стало использование государственного аппарата для политического преследования.
Такая потребность возникает в любом обществе, переживающем конец авторитаизма. И удовлетворить эту потребность невозможно отдельным показательным судебным процессом, или тем более, попытками вообще замолчать прошлое.
Для десятков государств мира эффективным механизмом изобличения преступлений авторитарных чиновников стала комиссия Правды.
Радикальные оппозиционеры требуют суда, а умеренные обещают ввести политическую амнистию. Однако и в первом, и во втором случаях без внимания остается потребность украинского общества узнать от государства исчерпывающую правду о всех невинных смертях, причиной которых стало использование государственного аппарата для политического преследования.
Такая потребность возникает в любом обществе, переживающем конец авторитаизма. И удовлетворить эту потребность невозможно отдельным показательным судебным процессом, или тем более, попытками вообще замолчать прошлое.
Для десятков государств мира эффективным механизмом изобличения преступлений авторитарных чиновников стала комиссия Правды.
Podcast Interview with Sean Russia Blog on the origins of the armed conflict in Donbas, September 12, 2016
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Political scientist Serhiy Kudelia has studied the conflict in Donbas since its very early stages. In a recently published academic article, “Institutional Paths to Ending the Donbas Conflict”, he discussed the possible approaches to... more
Political scientist Serhiy Kudelia has studied the conflict in Donbas since its very early stages. In a recently published academic article, “Institutional Paths to Ending the Donbas Conflict”, he discussed the possible approaches to ending the war. Maria Lipman talks to Kudelia about the current state of the conflict, as well as the prospects for, and impediments to, its resolution.
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A lecture at the University of Texas at Austin, Jan. 31, 2014 on protest movement in Ukraine.
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A panel discussion sponsored by the International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy and the George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies.
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Ця книга є дослідженням громадського руху протесту, що виник в Україні у грудні 2000 року і припинив активну фазу свого існування у березні 2001 року. Протестний рух розглядається як феномен новітньої української історії, оскільки вперше... more
Ця книга є дослідженням громадського руху протесту, що виник в Україні у грудні 2000 року і припинив активну фазу свого існування у березні 2001 року. Протестний рух розглядається як феномен новітньої української історії, оскільки вперше в історії держави її громадяни вийшли на вулиці не заради інтересів тієї чи іншої політичної сили, а через моральне обурення і з метою відновлення порушеної справедливості.
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Книжка «Нариси новітньої історії України» — це спроба міжнародної групи на- уковців, зібраних Інститутом Кеннана при Міжнародну науковому центрі імені Вудро Вільсона (Вашингтон, США), описати та проаналізувати колективний до- свід... more
Книжка «Нариси новітньої історії України» — це спроба міжнародної групи на- уковців, зібраних Інститутом Кеннана при Міжнародну науковому центрі імені Вудро Вільсона (Вашингтон, США), описати та проаналізувати колективний до- свід сучасних українців, якого вони набули за останні тридцять років. У дев’яти розділах книги автори — вчені з українських, американських, британських, єв- ропейських і канадських університетів досліджують, як поставала незалежна дер- жава, виникали й розв’язувалися політичні кризи, формувався приватний сектор та енергетика, перевинаходилися багатство й бідність, розвивалися вільні ЗМІ та сучасне мистецтво, виникав новий релігійний досвід, а також еволюціонували на- ціональна ідентичність і демократичний лад в Україні. Написана з різних дослід- ницьких та ідеологічних позицій, ця історія дозволяє побачити багатство й трагіч- ність розмаїтого досвіду сучасної України.